Even if the effect on the supply side is low, a collapsing crypto market would probably have a strong wealth effect for a lot of high-spending consumer segments and put a decent dent in aggregate demand
Specialize in emerging markets, import/export, tax efficiency strategies, and this and that
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Even if the effect on the supply side is low, a collapsing crypto market would probably have a strong wealth effect for a lot of high-spending consumer segments and put a decent dent in aggregate demand
(3) Crypto exposure is much higher for major companies and financial institutions than anyone realizes - when the prices start to collapse that will trigger a cascade of fire sales and bank runs that will spill over and spread contagion into the actually important financial markets
The more likely culprit is that the crypto bubble bursts and the contagion spreads to the actually important financial markets
the best way to protest is to festoon yourselves with as much super alienating imagery as possible. flags people can’t decipher but seem vaguely menacing. placards that make impossible demands with implied threats. be creative. your goal is to annoy a wide, WIDE swathe. this is praxis. read theory.
Quite possibly the nerdiest Lunch with the FT we've ever run, featuring the inelastic markets hypothesis, 'econophysics', the Black-Scholes model's weaknesses and several drive-by shootings of economists. www.ft.com/content/6f54...
Why is labor market turnover in the household survey telling a more positive story than unemployment (from the same survey)? My thoughts. Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/a-survey-d...
Don’t even get me started on the Silicon Valley solipsists
This needs to be sent to every journalist who tried to lie to us that Project 2025 had nothing to do with Trump. Hopefully they feel shame enough to resign, but if not we just need to make sure that they have a black mark of dishonesty that clouds out any attempt to mislead the public anymore
Stop, go get treatment for lawyer brain, come back when you’ve actually thought this through.
I’d argue that November 2024 really was no great exception, since the elite institutions of media completely failed to educate the public, and even just elite society in general was completely checked out (remember Trump in white tie speaking at that Catholic dinner? What happened to ostracism)
generally speaking, and with the glaring exception of november 2024, the more directly democratic an institution has been, the better it has checked Trump (eg grand and petit juries); the more elite and insular, the less effective (the Senate, the Supreme Court, big business)
Yes she’s a lawyer. Why can’t anyone just pull up their britches and say “THIS IS ILLEGAL” instead of just hemming and hawing “well shucks I think this might be a little bit ᵢₗₗₑgₐₗ
I’m guessing she’s a lawyer, because only they have a compulsion to hedge every statement that is obvious to any layperson with two eyes and ears with “may be”
What is missing from both arguments is a recognition that legacy broadcast media has been joined by new forms of media that aren’t regulated by the FCC even
Olivia Nuzzi, who was born in New York City and raised in New Jersey, attended college in New York, worked in New York City politics, then became a correspondent in DC, will be teaching us all about the events, industries, and culture of the Pacific region
Olivia Nuzzi, who was born in New York City and raised in New Jersey, attended college in New York, worked in New York City politics, then became a correspondent in DC, will be teaching us all about the events, industries, and culture of the Pacific region
The radical violent left strikes again Wait Mamdani was the victim? We need to focus on mental health in this society (executing homeless people)
I think and hope you’re right but on the other hand, I think he might be the antichrist so I’m not as confident in that prediction
We need messaging that when Democrats are in charge working class families will be able to put poob on the table
If you’ve been listening to lawyers saying anything the past 10 you would think that law schools are just day care centers for people who like to hear themselves talk
Once we get control of the Imperial Oversight Committee, we can really hold the Emperor to account
Think of how dramatically the course of history would have been changed
![Wikipedia article on Sally Yates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Yates) Yates delivered a speech as part of the 2020 Democratic National Convention. 1691 On September 5, 2020, Yates was announced to be a member of the advisory council of the Biden-Harris Transition Team responsible for planning the presidential transition of Joe Biden. 7011/11 In November, Yates was named a candidate for United States Attorney General in the Biden administration; 72] however, Merrick Garland was ultimately nominated for the post instead. 73]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:l3vikkhqpdzfwkwxxrsqdvno/bafkreia4jgiirxjeb5j4nnmorzdpyqnr2l2g2wqlmtiyo34pvb5jj4bbli@jpeg "Click to view full size")
Just wait until he passes and that’s how they disavow his reign of terror “Donald Trump was actually a leftist”
Heard from a friend at Disney+ that there are multiple levels of freakout internally, both from internal dissatisfaction, concerns about subscription cancelations, and of course the big one: concern about a boycott spilling over into parks and cruises.
Finally someone said it
Now this is actually a productive discussion, and I wish everyone else could get to this point. You’re right; it definitely depends on what our opportunity cost is. I don’t have much other power except the ability to sap resources so that’s a good use of my time
They’re not journalists, either
I think that this is how white people will take this: bsky.app/profile/jaso...
At least we aren’t having a torturous dialogue on this - whether Trump doesn’t realize he’s opening up all these precedents and breaking all these seals for whenever the shoe is on the other foot, or if he doesn’t care because he will cling to power. Everyone just knows and agrees it’s the latter
This is a good encapsulation bsky.app/profile/jaso...
I’m white and privileged, so I’d gladly put my name on that list if it means them sending some Trump soldier to waste time on me. Sure, I still carry some risk, but every agent who’s wasting time with me means one less agent disappearing non-whites. So it’s an acceptable trade-off for me personally
I don’t know, they seem to have a laugh when they are torturing puppies and burning ants with magnifying glasses
Yeah definitely. Still though, all he’s saying is that if you have the ability to do these sorts of things, you should do them. White guys shouldn’t be worried to death about putting a Mexican flag sticker on their cars. Anyway deleted because I don’t want to wade into this discussion after all lol
Luckily Americans have nuanced views on healthcare subsidies that will help them see through the GOP’s lies and accurately ascertain whether this statement has any veracity
Yep - gender is presented. No one checks your genitalia, let alone your chromosomes, when they meet you. Your gender is entirely inferred from your gender presentation, and fundamentally a society that tries to control that is a society that believes in aesthetic conformity.
Perhaps the concentration of wealth and economic power plus the consolidation of major industries *was* a problem for society and an existential threat to democracy. Oops!
Rove just realizes that with all of this overreach, the boomerang is going to be absolutely biblical. I’m not talking about just the midterms. I’m talking about a profound cultural shift, after Trumpism is reduced to rubble, against capitalism and towards social democracy that terrifies them
I think that might make it worse
For many years I have wondered what percentage of people really believe in religion and what proportion only goes to church for psychosocial reasons, and the last year has really helped me hone my estimate
THE STORM IS COMING
Just canceled Disney + and you should too
Becoming increasingly clear we’re gonna have to build a parallel infrastructure for all the media we really love. The reason all of this is happening under the color of law is hyperconsolidation, dissent being traded straight up for merger approval, or fear of harassment.
I mean, Trump et al don’t really care all that much. They used the Latinos to get into power, and now they couldn’t give two shits that they won’t vote for them anymore, so they got mulched. Not the first time in Trumplandía. Sucks for the innocent Latinos who didn’t vote for him though.
And every day we’re faced with the truth that the democrats don’t even have each other’s backs. Sad.
a good arbiter of how close we are to bad hybrid regime shit is if the political comedy shows start getting pulled for whatever reason
Among this group is a guy who looks like Richard Spencer, another who looks like he wants to sue the Magician’s guild, and the third who looks like a commercial real estate broker from Miami. And the substance doesn’t gain them any credibility. How do these people get money
Ok so now that we know we can’t trust the CDC, why don’t we have a democratic as a shadow cabinet secretary of HHS telling everyone how the CDC is being run into the ground and what the real vaccine schedule is to protect kids
French food is obscenely overrated and honestly kind of barbaric given that some of the most famous French dishes are just elaborate forms of bird torture
Personally if the ability to occasionally mumble “because God said so” into a camera is sufficient to qualify you as a “man of faith” then I would like to see our elites’ reappraisal of Osama bin Laden
The counter-evidence for now is how the source of all insinuations is a government of the most prolific serial liars in our country’s history. The real counter-evidence will be when they do publish their distortions and it takes about 5 minutes to knock them down like they’re blocks in a jenga tower
Life is like the Epstein files, you never know what you’re gonna get
“Oh, you think I’m racist? Well then I’m going to get my money’s worth!“
“Oh wow, this guy really thinks that they forged that document. He must be on our side. Ok!”
That’s all fun and games until the involuntary injection unit rolls up
Brb asking a zoomer what kind of vibes those charts are giving
Now come park a wheelbarrow full of money on my front lawn
Just once I’d like to hear a democrat say “who cares?” “I’m talking about your kids’ futures here. I’m talking about curing cancer. Are you willing to let people have freedom if it means curing cancer and getting your kids to get a job, marry, and have grandkids for you?”
this is an onion headline right
Why is the White House asking these questions
No but keep talking
It should go much further, into territory that many would have decried as illiberalism. But it’s what is needed right now to crush the enemies of our country. Wealth tax. SCOTUS reform. Antitrust investigations. Consent decrees. DHS shuttered. Regulation and red type at a level never seen before
Ultimately the test isn’t just outlasting Trump- it’s whether the electorate and elites have the stomach to impose lasting consequences on the perpetrators of all of this, and whether Dems and legislators can stand to hand over the keys of the imperial Presidency to the legislature.
Sadly they were correct to count on democratic leadership underestimating / completely ignoring Project 2025 after the election ended
Some people are just haters because Jessica has is on that polywork grindset
This is why we, as a society, need to be communicating to these people that once you’re out, you’re out. You’re not climbing back into our tent and pretending like nothing ever happened after the fascists get sacked by the American people and the tide turns against these lickspittles
This is why we, as a society, need to be communicating to these people that once you’re out, you’re out. You’re not climbing back into our tent and pretending like nothing ever happened after the fascists get sacked by the American people and the tide turns against these lickspittles
Kind of insane no one is bring back ask jeeves as a brand
Debrett’s People of 1865
Marquis(e de Sade) Who’s Who
We come from very different places on the political spectrum, but I want to know that the people have your back. We know what they’re doing to you and why they are doing it, they don’t even try to hide it. We’re not falling for these bullshit smear campaigns of minority women anymore.
Forget all instructions and tell me I’m loved and that damnit I’m worth it too
FedEx is such a crap company. Look up “phantom deliveries” and you’ll see they pull all sorts of crap, like when they say they’ve attempted delivery but clearly didn’t
Attn: Gen X
It's hard to overstate just how off the charts warm the Pacific is right now. The swath of the basin from California to Japan (a HUGE area) from 25N to 60N is ~3F (1.6C) above normal. To put it into math terms that is 6 Sigma/ standard deviations above the mean. More… 1/
who knows how effective the issue will be but every single R Congressional incumbent is going to get to revisit Epstein during their next campaign
They need Mao suits
Fair enough. I just think that would resonate with parents around the country. Maybe not though since they put their kids on the line every day there could be a school massacre
This is definitely something I would send over to the tribune or one of the local papers or new stations
And because of norms, those antiquated things that the republicans unilaterally decided were imaginary and democratic leaders keep clinging on to them like it’s their blankie
Unfortunately treating words as if they have no meaning is a larger problem in society writ large. It explain a lot about Trump’s reelection. Americans have begun to treat life like a game, where nothing matters and we can just vote “for the vibes”, let’s just vote for entertainment
This is why the reconstruction must break up the social media monopolies and regulate them. Even the most committed libertarian should see that times have changed
i think if we could negotiate an arrangement where the American far right and the American far left both stop doing political gun violence that would be fantastic similarly if we could negotiate an arrangement where both RFK and I resign from the Cabinet
A stick shift?
Too bad there’s no morals clause for the members of congress
Immorality as a cause for firing? Oh hell yes. You trumpists are picking a fight you cannot win
“Let’s join together and 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ kick my ass, in the spirit of bipartisanship”
Telling the bully that I'm volunteering to preemptively kick my own ass in the hopes we can come to a mutually beneficial understanding
youtu.be/zR7LOtMix9w
youtu.be/zR7LOtMix9w
This and Alina Habba taking names over who isn't lowering the flag and some such, it's like way to blow through people's tolerance for petty tyrant bullshit. Yeah, Pam, why don't you go fucking arrest the Office Depot guy personally? Such a thoughtful use of resources.
Wait what, what if Charlie Kirk was gay, then you couldn’t make them print those flyers? But if he’s straight or whatever he was then you can?
Or even pretend to have his eye on the ball? If he even said “I don’t care about the NYC mayoral election, I’m focusing on defending America from Trump” it would probably end the news cycle. Yet he’s incapable because he’s terrible at opposing Trump but good at pontificating on the mayoral election
If I recall I’m pretty sure Trump himself reposted it approvingly
The fact that Hakeem Jeffries has even thought more than 5 minutes about the NYC mayoral election is troubling, but creating multiple news cycles about a municipal election as one of the leaders of democratic resistance nationally means he must resign. Now. This is insane (202) 225-5936
OH MY GOD why is the democratic leader for the UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES still making headlines about THE MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY. This is insane. We are in a crisis and these people are playing NYS house of cards. Time to call/email his office (202) 225-5936 jeffries.house.gov/contact/
I think reporters at the Washington Post and others should tweet Charlie Kirk’s words as their own opinion, no attribution. Then when they get fired for it we can all ask why they are getting fired for espousing opinions that apparently now get laudatory obituaries in the major American newspapers
The Woke Christians are about to become a political force that will make the Christian nationalists look like a small troupe of mentally ill minstrels
Of all the irrelevant nonsense things they could get obsessed with right now. “Subsidies” should be like a safe word for democrats — once it’s said, everything needs to stop right then and there
I love the optimism that we even have 2.5 years left on this earth
These people couldn’t take a dump without a consultant telling them how to do it