In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911
The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere. Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
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In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911
A couple down, now only maybe 12(?) months of Qld state redistribution news to go! I dove into public consultation stage 1/4 (initial party & interested ppl’s proposals) recently here: www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/que... But as this chat w Ben suggests, there’s plenty more to come…
Here's a version with captions.
This is just a proposal, they always suggest things that will help their side. Just a very obvious example.
I was joined by @mattdennien.bsky.social for this week's podcast, discussing the Queensland state redistribution. In this clip we discuss the LNP's proposal to break the city of Bundaberg in half, flipping the seat from Labor to LNP. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911
I don't agree with Kevin on that point, but it does do a good job of explaining what is going on.
I should say that, while this is a very thorough debunking of the right-wingers who have advocated for FPTP, it isn't a defence of the electoral system against all comers. The single-member electorate system does a poor job of representing voters.
Kevin estimates that, compared to a FPTP election, Labor may have won about 87 seats.
Really interesting and detailed post from @kevinbonham.bsky.social explaining how Labor turned a 35% primary vote into 63% of seats in the House. It's mostly explained single-member electorates favouring major parties, and giving a winners' bonus to the winning major party, not preference flows.
I think there’s a case for the ACT to at least have senators in proportion to Tasmania which would be like 7-8.
You mean the reduction from 151 to 150? That’s just random fluctuation due to more states rounding down than rounding up. A proper expansion takes place when you increase the size of the Senate and it then immediately causes an increase in the House. The bare minimum would be about 25 seats.
We're watching old episodes of Lego Masters on 9Now and they keep running ads for the Relics Lego exhibition at the Australian Museum (a good exhibition!) and keep saying "closing soon" and "final weeks" for something that doesn't close until January. Seems pretty misleading!
yeah, you'd get a lot of that...
yeah that doesn't come up much. Senate results actually end up being quite proportional despite the severe malapportionment. We're lucky that the small state/big state balance mostly cancels out, unlike in the US.
well it lowers the threshold in every state equally. There's always plenty of complaints about Tasmania's numbers in the Senate but that isn't specific to minor party senators from Tassie.
state legislative districts would be a lot smaller, right? Although arguably those districts are a lot bigger than comparable countries. California is 40 million, about the same size as Canada, but only 80 seats in the Assembly compared to well over 300 in Canada.
you must be unfamiliar with my work. I talk about it a lot. www.tallyroom.com.au/60577
One of the issues we have is that the size of the House is connected to the size of the Senate (roughly twice the size), so you can usually only increase the House in increments of 24 at a time, and a larger Senate means lowering the threshold for election for minor parties. So increases are tricky.
I think it's reasonable to expect that more populous countries have a higher voter/rep ratio, so I don't think the US could ever have small districts like in smaller countries. But Canada and the UK (both more populous than Australia) have substantially smaller districts.
I think once entitlements change you are obliged to conduct a full redistribution process. And sometimes splitting a seat in two can produce some odd results. Anyway I can't imagine such a dramatic increase.
mm, I don't think they're that common. Only two states, and they are both old legacies. Indeed NSW's 8-year terms were a reduction from the previous 9-12 year terms! I agree that there would be resistance to the much lower Senate quota, which is why I don't think it can be achieved.
I’m also a supporter of proportional representation. But we can do both.
I sort of address this here www.tallyroom.com.au/51493 Parliamentarians don’t govern, they represent, and having more reduces the gap between people and parliament and allow for greater diversity.
Unfortunately we can’t really do anything about Tassie except to increase everyone else’s representation to reduce the imbalance.
That’s a very different issue. We should make the case that a bigger parliament is good for democracy.
Numbers reflect people. Places with more people get more seats. Fair
no-one is suggesting a parliament of over 600.
Canadian MPs represent about 111,000 people on average, UK about 100,000. In Australia it's close to 170k. That's the point. The figures are all here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cube_ro...
the UK has 650 members of the House of Commons, Canada has 343 seats. They are not that much bigger population-wise.
I’m not sure what page you’re on. Please clarify what isn’t “fair” about how we allocate seats.
You don’t think eight-year Senate terms would be a problem? It would be for me.
It’s relatively low compared to similar countries.
A bigger parliament makes it harder for party leaders to control their members, and allows for more diversity in the parliament. You should want a bigger parliament if that’s your concern.
As the population grows, you get more seats. That’s democracy. Surely you aren’t suggesting voters in western Sydney should have votes that count more than others?
It was bipartisan in 1967 and failed then. I don’t think there’s any chance of breaking the nexus.
yes they built the new airport in an area with less people living near it. I don't see the unfairness? Federal seats are allocated based on population.
The federal government has again raised the prospect of expanding the parliament. In today's post I take a look at how long redistributions take, and how they take longer now than they did in 1984, so if they want to move on parliamentary expansion they need to do it asap.
Is Tasmania ungovernable or just badly governed? #AUListen #DemocracySausage 🎙 @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social are joined by A/Prof Kate Crowley & @benraue.com to discuss Tasmania’s perpetual political instability in the wash-up from July’s election. bit.ly/41VTIYf.
NEW SUBMISSION CATEGORY ADDED! AJPS invites Reform Notes from practitioners and/or academics that set out proposed innovations about (or relevant to) aspects of Australian politics practice - e.g. proposals for or modifications to existing political institutions, procedures, laws and practices 1/4
very interesting!
It's not clear if there will be a by-election in Mount Gambier, or if the seat will just lay vacant until March 2026, but I've updated and unlocked my seat profile for Mt Gambier, which I'll convert to a by-election guide if needed #sapol
Ecological fallacy. John Black constantly falls afoul of it.
Disappointed to discover you aren’t a Tally Room podcast completist, Andre. I played it in my Bradfield recount episode.
Sean is a friend and that’s how I got in touch with the songwriter.
The guy who wrote it was very happy for me to play it for free.
Quite genuinely and enthusiastically cheering for a draw in #afllionshawks. A Giants top 4 finish is still possible! www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJta...
I would expect it would get the Saturday afternoon slot.
So if the Giants and Suns both win their last games (which seems likely), the Suns first ever final will be at the Showground against GWS.
If you assume no other Labor vs Crossbench changes it'd be ALP 77, Coalition 65, Others 8
if you apply the swing nationally, a swing of 5.8% would see the Coalition gain 16 seats off Labor. A similar swing would flip 5 crossbench seats. So that would leave the Coalition on 65. Close to hung parliament territory, definitely not majority.
if you apply a uniform swing at a state level so every state has a 50.6% 2PP, I think you end up with the Coalition gaining 15-18 seats, which would leave them on 62. Almost reducing Labor to minority. (Which is what I thought Springborg initially meant).
They did a great job this week! It’s been obvious since last weekend that there would be enormous rainfall over Tues-Thurs and that’s what happened.
This guide will be unlocked closer to election day, but for those of you with particular interest I wanted to publish it as early as possible. Donating via Patreon is crucial to supporting my work so I can keep doing this analysis.
If you want a quick taste, I've unlocked three lower house seats and one upper house region: Mornington, Richmond, Yan Yean and North Metro.
I've launched my guide to the 2026 Victorian state election. The guide features profiles of all 88 lower house races and the 8 upper house regions. The full guide is available to those who sign up on Patreon for $8 or more per month.
Oh yes
It’s been standard practice for NSW Labor to have treasurers in the upper house - Egan, Costa, Mookhey
It was a great site! But understood if it can’t be maintained.
GPT-5 regularly asks you why you are not citing its work. GPT-5 always believes your estimator is biased. GPT-5 has more of a comment than a question. Sometimes GPT-5 tells you stories about grad school and expresses regret about getting a PhD. GPT-5's mom wonders when it will start making money.
Odd
The leader can’t also be a minister?
Gallagher index (disproportionality) for Danish parliamentary elections. Guess when they stopped using single-member electorates? @benraue.com
With Gareth Ward's resignation, there will need to be a by-election for his seat of Kiama on the NSW south coast. I've now published my guide to that by-election #nswpol
*slamming Winter
The article is full of contradictions. One minute he’s slamming Rockliff for insisting on majority government then sneering at the idea that anyone should challenge the Liberals’ hold on govt when they hold just 14 seats.
Today's blog post is probably my favourite bit of analysis I can do for Hare-Clark elections - mapping out the relative support of candidates within the same party in an electorate #politas #tasvotes
haha we are neck-and-neck, I watched that episode this morning.
my kid's soccer club, and two of the clubs they've played against this season.
the preferential voting system gives you the best you can get *while electing one person*. But we don't elect one person, we elect 150. About 20% of the country voted for someone else but went to Labor on the 2PP - those people are less well represented by a Labor MP than their first preference.
well I have been looking into this issue for many years and I think this is the best way to assess proportionality. There is no way to use secondary preferences to assess voters' intentions. I also think it's massively overstated how much voters change their voting behavious vs FPTP.
do you mean "minimising"? I've never heard that word.
it gets dark for 2 weeks at a time on the moon.
I thought this thread was interesting (as is his book, which is very pessimistic about space settlement) bsky.app/profile/zach...
like what other voting metric would you find better to measure proportionality? 2CP doesn't work, it only applies in one seat for the election of one person. And 2PP by definition forces every voter into a major party camp however else they may have voted.
preferences have some value but the actual person you vote for as your number 1 is more significant. It's also the only thing you can use to compare to other non-preferential electoral systems. It's a big deal that Labor's primary vote translates into so many more seats!
Australia's preferential voting system is often praised, and for good reason. But in terms of reflecting overall votes cast it's not much better than first past the post. My look at how our winner-takes-all voting system skews election outcomes for @australiainstitute.org.au 👇 #auspol
Today's blog post explores how the preference counts played out in Bass and Clark, where candidates came from behind to win #tasvotes #politas
Those are two quite different systems! I assumed Dylan was referring to the Senate system which is quite similar to the NSW, WA, SA upper houses.
Sadly we are playing up your way that weekend, against the Suns.
Oh I didn’t realise it was on Netflix. I’d signed up for Paramount for cheap to watch some soccer and all the Star Trek is on there.
I am easily entertained and it was mostly background noise so I didn’t mind it. But yes I got the same advice. I’m in it for the long haul - I figure it might take like 5 years to catch up on the whole thing?
Same here actually. I asked for advice in my discord about where to start and am now about halfway through S2 of TNG.
I notice they have a bunch of the post election edited volumes which I have been collecting the Australian versions of. Some great covers.
any particular books you recommend about electoral history?
It’s complicated but quite a few of them have indicated much more willingness to work with Labor than Liberal. George and Garland have ruled out working with the Libs. Johnston also voted no confidence. Those three combined with ALP+GRN is a majority.
George Razay has been elected in Bass, just narrowly outpolling the second and third Labor candidates. Jess Greene wins the seventh seat, with Geoff Lyons missing out by a few hundred votes. Final seat count: -14 Liberal -10 Labor -5 Greens -1 Shooters -5 Independents
Lyons has a lead over Razay of about 0.08 quotas, with about 0.55 quotas from Frydrych to be distributed.
oh yes
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Michal Frydrych has been excluded in Bass, and his preferences will decide whether Geoff Lyons (ALP) or George Razay (IND) will win the last seat, with Jess Greene (ALP) looking strong for the second-last seat.
Ah I see that you’ve accounted for that when I examine the key closely.
In Sydney, trams and buses work very differently. Buses you are expected to board through the front door but can exit from either. You tap on and off on the bus. But for the trams, the card readers are on the stop, not the vehicle. And they are quite long with many doors.
Also I didn't ask for "stadiums", I asked for "grounds".
Liberal MP Simon Wood has lost his seat in Bass, and with it the last prospect for the Liberal Party to gain a 15th seat at this election.
definitely not Richie Benaud - that has soccer posts. Maybe it would have before Granville Waratah temporarily moved there. I don't know about Ollie Webb.
there is a club that plays at the Old Kings oval on the edge of Parramatta Park.
ironically I think the answer to my question of quite possibly the only place around here with AFL poles is probably the Old Kings Oval right next door, but Google was no help.
Good work Google. Sure, there has literally never been a game of Aussie rules football played at that stadium, and it's entirely the wrong shape, but it'll do.
Clark has been finalised, and there's not much to report from Braddon, but I've updated Franklin and Lyons. Both are close to finishing with Lyons particularly interesting.
Madeleine Ogilvie has beaten Simon Behrakis on the back of Elise Archer's preferences.