Opportunities in Polish President’s Meeting With Trump | "Whatever the disputes between Poland’s presidency and government, the head of state’s first official visit to Washington could bring substantial benefits." Paul Jones
The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) | CEPA’s mission is to ensure a strong and democratic transatlantic alliance for future generations. Media inquiries: press@cepa.org
8,857 followers 945 following 2,851 posts
view profile on Bluesky
Opportunities in Polish President’s Meeting With Trump | "Whatever the disputes between Poland’s presidency and government, the head of state’s first official visit to Washington could bring substantial benefits." Paul Jones
The Mystery of NATO’s 5% Spending Promise | "The detail of what exactly alliance allies are to pay and how they spend are still murky, as are the possible consequences." Catherine Debenham, Maddie Hensley, and Jason Israel
Fog of War: Defeat and Victory | "Decisive outcomes on the battlefield are rare; what comes next matters more." @edwardlucas.bsky.social
A Baltic Backstop for Russian Blight | "Russia’s propaganda and threats are spooking potential investors in the Baltic States. NATO members should offer a financial backstop to reassure them." Ēriks Selga
Too Much US Reverence for the Kremlin’s Smiling Hardmen | "Western negotiators need to remember who they’re dealing with when they talk to the Kremlin’s representatives." @andreisoldatov.bsky.social and Irina Borogan
For two decades, CEPA has been at the forefront of transatlantic policy research. Join CEPA in its reflections on how to strengthen the transatlantic alliance through innovative research and analysis. #CEPA20 https://cepa.org/about-cepa/cepa-at-20/
🎙️Check out The CEPA Podcast and tune in to hear top thought leaders explore the toughest challenges shaping the world today. If you are interested in transatlantic affairs, give it a listen! https://cepa.org/the-cepa-podcast/
"Uneasy neighbors at the best of times, open hostility from the Kremlin is pushing Azerbaijan closer to Ukraine." @fuadshahbazov.bsky.social
"Left unchallenged, the EU risks losing a would-be ally in a continent increasingly divided between Kremlin-friendly and democratic, anti-authoritarian states. Serbia may become another Georgia." Andrii Vdovychenko
The war in Ukraine "cannot last forever," says Alexander Kolyandr, noting that "this party is almost over" as Russian wages stagnate and inflation remains at historic highs. https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/a-propos/20250827-this-party-is-almost-over-expert-says-as-russia-slashes-2025-forecast
For over two decades, CEPA has been at the forefront of securing a strong and democratic transatlantic alliance for future generations. Help advance CEPA's mission👇 https://cepa.org/about-cepa/support-now-cepa-at-20/
“Merz deliberately is saying, based on political logic, that if something like this happens, Germany will of course participate,” Nico Lange outlines Germany's role in European security guarantees for Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/world/europe/germany-ukraine-russia-peace-troops.html
"Both Moscow and Beijing see themselves as the victims of a US strategy of containment and as targets of Western interference more broadly." https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/sino-russian-alignment-stopping-at-the-nuclear-threshold/
"It should now be abundantly clear that Russia will continue to reject Trump’s peace overtures until Putin faces significantly more pressure to end the war." Elena Davlikanova https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-will-not-pursue-peace-until-he-is-facing-military-defeat/
"Russian officials are so concerned at falling birthrates they may cut high school so pupils start families earlier, but they also need cannon fodder for Ukraine." https://cepa.org/article/russias-war-for-high-school-leavers/
"Russia has not changed its position one iota. The war is raging on... We don't have a clear strategy of how to get Putin to stop the war." Kurt Volker https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/land-swap-that-wasnt-inside-trumps-frantic-dash-ukraine-peace-2025-08-28/
"Would the Ukrainian Armed Forces accept a peace deal including Russia’s demand to withdraw from unconquered land? There are signals it’s causing anxiety." Elena Davlikanova
Looking for insights on defense, democracy, and digital innovation? Discover how CEPA has strengthened the transatlantic alliance through two decades of cutting-edge research. #CEPA20 https://cepa.org/about-cepa/cepa-at-20/
"Huawei is storing Spanish wiretap data, a rebuke to the Trump Administration." Enrique Dans
"Although overall security coordination and military cooperation between China and Russia have strengthened in recent years, significant boundaries remain." https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/sino-russian-alignment-stopping-at-the-nuclear-threshold/
Recovering injured soldiers from the Ukrainian frontline is fraught with risk. Now machines are taking on the task. David Kirichenko
“While the SCO has not developed into a vehicle for regional cooperation, the organization remains useful as a means of normative signaling.” @natashakuhrt.bsky.social https://cepa.org/commentary/sino-russian-relations-in-central-asia/
For over two decades, CEPA has been at the forefront of strengthening the transatlantic alliance through cutting-edge research and analysis. Help support CEPA's mission👇 https://cepa.org/about-cepa/support-now-cepa-at-20/
🎙️The CEPA Podcast dives into today’s most pressing challenges. Listen now for transatlantic policymakers’ personal stories and insights on how leadership drives real-world outcomes in policy and global affairs. https://cepa.org/the-cepa-podcast/
“There won’t be a deal. Putin will never agree,” Kurt Volker outlines why the Ukrainian peace negotiations remain stuck at the same point they were six months ago. https://english.nv.ua/nation/trump-sees-ukraine-peace-hinging-on-russian-terms-politico-reports-50539417.html
“As with the BRICS expansion, the SCO’s new ambitions are Chinese-driven, while Russia, India, and others playing along.” Emil Avdaliani https://cepa.org/article/courting-season-in-the-south-caucasus/
This year, CEPA is celebrating 20 years of leadership in action! Discover how CEPA has strengthened the transatlantic alliance through two decades of cutting-edge research and analysis at the link below. #CEPA20 https://cepa.org/about-cepa/cepa-at-20/
"Sabotage incidents abound in Sweden—and prompt alarmingly little response." Edward Lucas
"But when it comes to peace, the political problem is latent but obvious: once the spectacle fades and costs mount, victory may look like paying indefinitely for the occupied territories that cannot pay for themselves." Elena Davlikanova
"Russian intelligence has a long reach, and the country’s leading cyber-companies have been made well aware of it." Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan
“It is vital that global democracies mount a significant response to deter future attempts by Russia and China to disrupt Western critical subsea infrastructure.” Ben Schmitt
"Continued and potentially even strengthened Sino-Russian security coordination and military cooperation is to be expected in the years to come, driven by a shared anti-US sentiment and common concerns about regime security." Camilla T.N. Sørensen
"The country is dangerously divided at a time of rising peril. There are ways to fix this, if the will exists." Maciej Bukowski
Italy: Dig for (Rare Earths) Victory | "Italy can set an example in breaking China’s dangerous grip on European supply chains." Niccolò Comini
"Russia has not changed its position one iota. The war is raging on... We don't have a clear strategy of how to get Putin to stop the war." Kurt Volker
Russia — Ukraine’s Accidental Matchmaker | "Uneasy neighbors at the best of times, open hostility from the Kremlin is pushing Azerbaijan closer to Ukraine." @fuadshahbazov.bsky.social
“Amid economic vulnerabilities, entrenched governance issues and allegations of Russian interference, Sandu’s administration must now turn victory into action if Moldova is to secure democratic stability.” Anda Bologa
Europe — Rescue Serbia From Russian-Style Rule | "The EU must act decisively or risk losing another ally to Russia and China." Andrii Vdovychenko
“Even if the Kremlin succeeds in toppling Moldova’s pro-Western government in parliamentary elections in September, it is hard to imagine the authorities in Kyiv tolerating a Russian military reinforcement of a neighboring country, by sea or by air.” @edwardlucas.bsky.social
“The EU integration is not just a nice dream for Moldova, it’s the only way to keep our democracy safe,” 2023 Freedom Fighter Award recipient, Maia Sandu, explains why the support of the international community is essential to Moldovan security.
Check out the full report for Camilla T. N. Sørensen’s analysis on the limits to the ‘no-limits’ partnership between China and Russia, their diverging nuclear postures, and how US policy is shaping their approach.
While China is expanding its nuclear capacity, China appears to be adhering to its No-First-Use commitment, and unlike Russia’s assertive nuclear posture, the key driver influencing China’s nuclear posture is US decision-making.
Despite their ‘limitless’ partnership, China has remained neutral in Russia’s war in Ukraine, going so far as to publicly issue warnings against Russia’s use of nuclear escalation in state coercion.
Now considered a strategic partnership without limits, Russia and China are actively expanding military cooperation and security coordination, encouraged by shared anti-US sentiment.
Beijing is concerned about Moscow’s use of nuclear coercion in the war in Ukraine. Camilla T. N. Sørensen explores how the lack of alignment over the role of nuclear weapons exposes limitations in the Sino-Russian relationship.
Arctic security is paramount to today's geopolitical landscape. Last week, a CEPA delegation visited Denmark and Norway to better understand the role of emerging technology in the Arctic and its impact on allied capability.
Can you describe the articles that make up the NATO treaty? Let's dive into Article 2.
Surrender Ukrainian Land? Ask the Army | "Would the Ukrainian Armed Forces accept a peace deal including Russia’s demand to withdraw from unconquered land? There are signals it’s causing anxiety." Elena Davlikanova
Mechanical Medics Transform Ukraine’s Frontline | "Recovering injured soldiers from the Ukrainian frontline is fraught with risk. Now machines are taking on the task." @kirichenko.bsky.social
Russia’s War for High School Leavers | "Russian officials are so concerned at falling birthrates they may cut high school so pupils start families earlier, but they also need cannon fodder for Ukraine."
"Paradoxically, the moves by the United States and its European allies to sanction Russian cybersecurity companies [...] may only have accelerated the spread of Russian cybertechnology to other parts of the world." @andreisoldatov.bsky.social and Irina Borogan
If Putin does commit to a meeting, it would be seen by many as "more than a climbdown," Pavel Luzin explains why a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting might not happen.
The Flamingo FP-5 missile, developed by Ukraine's Fire Point defense company, is "Ukraine’s strongest security guarantee." @frhoffmann.bsky.social
Spain Embraces Chinese Tech | "Huawei is storing Spanish wiretap data, a rebuke to the Trump Administration." Enrique Dans #TechPol
The Russian "Warrior" center in the occupied Luhansk region has begun to train children in sniper shooting. Starting in 2026, Russia will make it harder for children to leave the occupied territories by requiring them to obtain a Russian international passport. #BehindTheLines
Putin’s Long Game | "Russia’s leader aims to cherry-pick concessions from the West, while imposing Soviet-style barriers between his people and outsiders." @andreisoldatov.bsky.social and Irina Borogan
Swedish Infrastructure: Nightfall | "Sabotage incidents abound in Sweden—and prompt alarmingly little response." @edwardlucas.bsky.social
“Emaciated prisoners of war, news from the frontlines, and Ukrainian cities under growing bombardment create a picture of absolute horror. But people get on with their lives.” Lera Burlakova #UkrainianIndependenceDay https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-chill-mom-its-ok-if-we-die/
“Ukrainians are becoming more than citizens of a state — they are agents within a civic community that values autonomy, fairness, and dignity over paternalism.” Kateryna Odarchenko #UkrainianIndependenceDay https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-blitz-spirit-freedom-over-fear/
"Overall, Russia needs to maintain primacy in Central Asia to legitimate its claims to Great Power status.” https://cepa.org/commentary/sino-russian-relations-in-central-asia/
“Ukraine returns repeatedly to the question of security guarantees in discussions about any eventual peace with Russia. It’s not about obstruction, it’s about survival.” Volodymyr Dubovyk #UkrainianIndependenceDay https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-theres-no-peace-without-security
🇺🇦Today, Ukrainians around the world in celebrate Independence Day, a pivotal moment that marks the resilience and determination of a nation striving for sovereignty and self-determination.
For over two decades, CEPA has been at the forefront of strengthening the transatlantic alliance through cutting-edge research and analysis. Help support CEPA's mission👇 https://cepa.org/about-cepa/support-now-cepa-at-20/
An "ATESH" movement agent disabled a relay cabinet on the railway line between Russia’s Rostov region and occupied Luhansk. As a result of the sabotage, the supply of equipment, ammunition, and fuel to Russian forces was disrupted. #BehindTheLines https://cepa.org/behind-the-lines/
CEPA's Tech Policy Tracker is LIVE! Explore this interactive tool to learn the most recent updates about the tech industry and digital policy in Europe and the US! #TechPol https://cepa.org/about-cepa/issues/technology-and-innovation/transatlantic-tech-policy-tracker/
In occupied Kherson, Russia has launched the “Youth of the Two Seas” media school to train local youth to produce pro-Kremlin content. The project includes online courses and forums promoting Russian narratives aimed at erasing Ukrainian identity. #BehindTheLines https://cepa.org/behind-the-lines/
This year, CEPA is celebrating 20 years of leadership in action! Discover how CEPA has strengthened the transatlantic alliance through two decades of cutting-edge research and analysis at the link below. #CEPA20 https://cepa.org/about-cepa/cepa-at-20/
"Russia’s economic sway in the region is in long-term decline. However, the sanctions regime imposed on Russia has increased the economic value of Central Asia to Russia.” https://cepa.org/commentary/sino-russian-relations-in-central-asia/
"Here, the main question is, have we become closer to peace? Definitely not, but has it served the interests of the Russian Federation? Yes, absolutely, because we know that the sanctions are not being imposed, and he would not impose a ceasefire right now." Hanna Shelest
“Ukraine is doing very well at imposing lots and lots of Russian casualties and really not losing much of any territory.” In contrast, Kurt Volker outlines that Russia’s economy is “in very bad shape and getting worse,” and Moscow has the “clock ticking with how much financial reserves they have. ”
“The Europeans divided the labor. I think they coordinated who was going to talk about what,” Volodymyr Dubovyk on the recent Ukraine peace talks.
An End to Russia’s War? Closer, But Not Yet Close | "A combination of talks and Western pressure may yet force the Kremlin to agree an end to its war of aggression against Ukraine." Kurt Volker
The Man With Viktor Orbán in His Sights | "Hungary’s premier has held the role in a vise-like grip for 15 years, but faces the most serious challenge yet at next-year’s election." Ferenc Németh
A New Western Strategy for Russian Aggression | "After years of trying to force Russia to halt its aggression, the West may eventually have to reconsider its risk tolerance to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine." Charles Sullivan
“A sustained attack” on WhatsApp was part of the Kremlin’s efforts “to harass Russians into switching to Max from WhatsApp,” said @andreisoldatov.bsky.social and Irina Borogan. “The policy is likely to work, especially if the population is given no choice.”
Putin–Zelenskyy Meeting Is Impossible, Say Russia’s Propagandists | "Russia propagandists were in a lather of excitement during and after the Alaska summit. The mood has changed." @juliadavisnews.bsky.social
Hungary Howls as Ukraine Strikes Key Pipeline | "Ukraine has struck the Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, even as widening attacks indicating the war is spreading to the Eurasian landmass." @asabadus.bsky.social
What is Next for Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia? | "Security guarantees, demands of annexation in Donbas, and sanctions on Russia. What do the recent summits with the US, Russia, and Ukraine mean for peace negotiations?" Kurt Volker
Georgia — Target the Judges | "Once a reliable partner of the West, Georgia is now becoming a Russian-style dictatorship. The West must do more to avert this outcome." Davit Jintcharadze
"Confusion over NATO’s key Article 5 on collective defense predates the alliance itself and still continues." Clara Riedenstein
Denton Fellow, Rumena Filipova, wishes CEPA a happy 20th birthday! Rumena's work focuses on the politics and international relations of Central and Eastern Europe, with a particular interest in disinformation, identity, and the authoritarian influence exercised by Russia and China in the region.
"Putin got away without doing anything," Kurt Volker discusses the outcomes of the Trump-Putin summit in #Alaska on Friday.
“Ukraine is holding a key defensive line across Donetsk,” said Elina Beketova, outlining the “fortified zone buildup over years because the war began 11 years ago."
Russia Sanctions — Remove or Improve | "The effectiveness of Western sanctions is declining, leaving Europe with some very difficult choices." Alexander Kolyandr
Chip Challenge: Goodbye Export Controls | "The Trump administration is allowing US suppliers to resume sales of artificial intelligence chips to China." Christopher Cytera, @ellyrostoum.bsky.social, @mattheweitel.bsky.social, William Echikson, and Jack Galloway #TechPol
Overall, China is challenging Russia's previously dominant role in Central Asia. Yet, both states understand their broader strategic partnership as vital to advancing their individual goals. To learn more, read the full report below👇
Despite shared concerns about regional stability, Sino-Russian security cooperation is limited and exclusive to SCO joint-military exercises. Russia is increasing military cooperation with Central Asian states to establish itself as the primary security provider for the region.
Historically, China’s vision in Central Asia prioritized economic and infrastructure investments, while Russia focused on political and security influence. However, China is now showing signs of becoming a more political actor and increasing its footprint in the security arena.
Russia still wields considerable residual soft power in the region. There is also some anti-Chinese sentiment among ordinary Central Asians, often focused on dissatisfaction with working conditions at Chinese companies in the region.
Although the SCO has not developed into a vehicle for regional cooperation, the organization is a useful forum to showcase unity in the region, demonstrate shared values, and ultimately counter Western claims of Central Asia's international isolation.
While Russia fears a loss of hard power influence within Central Asia, China has worked to pursue a leading role within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). President Xi has utilized this forum to expand Chinese economic activity within Central Asia.
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, Western sanctions have forced Russia to increase trade with Central Asian countries to circumvent sanctions. To solidify this relationship, Russia has increasingly engaged with the region to help frame itself as part of "Greater Eurasia."
China's growing economic ambitions are disrupting Russia’s traditional dominance in Central Asia. This has strained their partnership despite shared goals such as regional stability and opposition to "Western hegemony." A new report by @natashakuhrt.bsky.social explores the shifting power dynamic👇
US-Serbian Relations on the Move? | "There are signals from Washington that an improved relationship is on the cards, with Serbia arguing the US has much to gain." Vuk Velebit
The UAE and Russia: Best Friends Forever? | "The Emirates is a trusted ally and key facilitator for the Kremlin and the Belarusian dictatorship. Any loss of support would do serious harm to the Putin regime." @mhedgesh.bsky.social
Access Denied: The UK Online Safety Act Misses Its Mark | "Britain aimed to protect children online. Instead, it is sending teenagers down risky rabbit holes." Elly Rostoum #TechPol
China Path to Global Power Advances With Russian ‘Victory’ | "Everything is moving in the right direction for China’s rulers, and the Ukraine war talks are no exception." Michael Sheridan
Dirty Deals: Borders | "The use of force to change international frontiers is taboo. Until it isn’t." @edwardlucas.bsky.social
Encryption is increasingly used to protect national security information, for digital commerce, and on your personal devices, but it can also be used to hide crimes or threats. buff.ly/hw3W45B
CEPA is committed to a strong and democratic alliance for future generations. Discover CEPA's impact over 20 years and what lies ahead. #CEPA20 cepa.org/about-cepa/c...