New DVOA projections are fully run and will appear on @ftnfantasy.com tomorrow. A few surprising changes!
NFL writer | Most recently: The 33rd Team | FO/FTN Almanac | danpizzuta@gmail.com | snaps-and-stats.ghost.io
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New DVOA projections are fully run and will appear on @ftnfantasy.com tomorrow. A few surprising changes!
Remember your own guys: www.immaculategrid.com/football/rem...
delighted that he was the only one with a headshot as I was picking until the end
Absolutely no rhyme or reason to these selections but it was immensely satisfying
This table switching is my sign the season is here.
Reporting here only proves how unecessarily dumb the entire Micah Parsons situation was www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Welcome to Snaps & Stats, where I'll be posting content this season snaps-and-stats.ghost.io/welcome-to-s...
Last night there was a big drone Oasis logo flying over the Hudson River, switching between facing the Jersey and New York side
At this point, what is better?
Forgot this Apple Sports notification setting is “threat”
REMINDER FOR YTTV USERS: If you’re wondering “why is everyone ahead of me?!” remember to change your broadcast delay settings in your playback options You are welcome
Temple is also no longer on Homefield and is not even a cool enough bad team for anyone to choose them as a CFB26 dynasty rebuild. 10/10 brand management
Excited for another season of sporadically checking Temple football scores and thinking "hm, that seems bad"
Two void years on the Parsons deal, so this is how Over The Cap has it. Only 8.6% of the projected cap in the third year of the deal while setting record money at the position for three-year cash
Figures might not be exactly right here, but we're pretty much guaranteed a rework or a new extension after Year 3. Low salaries and prorating multiple option bonuses keeps the cap hits relatively tame through 2027.
One more thing about Parsons: it's often overlooked how he became this type of player to begin with. Every other edge on the Cowboys got hurt.
Tyler Biadasz missed one game at center for Washington last season. It came against the Cowboys and Micah Parsons.
Has Sloan given the Cowboys a transaction of the year award for this trade yet?
If the Micah Parsons contract does come in at a real $47M per year, that's a significant jump on the EDGE market — but at 14.6% over T.J. Watt, it still falls below the three positions listed below
Per Next Gen Stats, Micah Parsons was tied for third among all defenders in quick pressures with 33. He played 13 games. Every other defender in the top seven played 17.
"This is just how Jerry Jones does business" was the most parroted and dumbest rationalization this entire offseason.
*whispers* Green Bay was already fifth in weighted defensive DVOA last year
Fascinated by what the trade comp is. I can't imagine being so stubborn in how you try to negotiate contracts and pissing off your best players that this becomes the result
JERRY WHAT
Yes, but I'm increasingly open to the possibility of it being a show that's gone on multiple seasons too long and the writers have lost the plot of what made the show work to begin with
The worst part about these uniforms is that they're for a game in early October
Have seen the Commaders’ fourth down success positioned as a potential red flag for 2025, so I wanted to talk about it and add a little more context
The Kyle Hamilton extension is a great time to share his ridiculous INT against Houston (and an excuse to play around with some animation tools0
At 4/$100.4M, Kyle Hamilton's $25.1M AAV is an 18.1% bump over Kerby Joseph. That's now the second-biggest gap between the first and second highest paid players at a position. Biggest gap is Chris Jones +22.1% over Milton Williams at iDL. Ja'Marr Chase +15% over Justin Jefferson third. per OTC
Remember when Kyle Hamilton ran a 4.59?
With how long it took these numbers to come out, they were always going to be lower than expected/what McLaurin's side reportedly pushed for. Tough for a player in this situation to fully gain leverage. Still relatively good deal, just not top five contract. bsky.app/profile/thea...
Point brought up by @qbklass.bsky.social on the NFC North preview of TAFS today, one I agree with and bears repeating — Jordan Love's play style and negative plays are routinely mischaracterized as something way more detrimental than they have been in reality
I get a 33-year-old Robert Woods wasn't really changing anything but the Steelers going into the season with Aaron Rodgers throwing to DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, Calvin Austin, and nine tight ends... I don't know, man
Given the draft picks Washington has given up, this might be the way to recoup some future draft capital. Would take a hit to depth but Commanders playing with some thin margins of how this roster is constructed either way.
We've lowered the price on the FTN Football Almanac 2025! The season is just around the corner but there's still time to read the best, most accurate season preview filled with advanced stats, film study, and humor. Price also lowered $10 on Amazon. ftnfantasy.com/almanac
Falcons just waived Lenny Krieg, a German international Pathway kicker, who took most of Atlanta's kickoffs and was getting pretty good at placing kicks short of the returner. 18.2 yards per return on his kickoffs were tied for lowest in preseason. Also hit a 57-yard field goal.
To repurpose an old Tom Moore quote about backups practicing behind Peyton Manning: If you end up having to start Kenny Pickett you're fucked, why are you trading for fucked?
Who is still trading draft picks for Kenny Pickett. Stop it.
I'm an idiot
Try No.3 because I can't stop typing Fitzpatrick: Ryan Fitzgerald won the kicking job in Carolina over Matthew Wright. Fitzgerald was one of the best kickoff kickers, often hitting a low line drive or one-bounce kick.
Because of how the Bengals structure contracts, they didn't lower Year 1 figures for Chase or Higgins, while they now ~doubled the money for Hendrickson without adding years, putting more weight on the 2025 season without using the levers every other team uses to create short-term value in deals
"Trey Hendrickson will still be a free agent after this year," every report says, until the Bengals just franchise him and we do this again.
Yup, that's the only number we've gotten so far
The guarantees were going to be the real measuring stick here. Now it's 5pm and we still haven't gotten the initial guarantee number.
such a fun player, really hope he gets on the field more this year
Programming note: still finalizing details of when/where/how content will come this season but ~95% certain that won't include 1st & 10. It's a bummer because I've enjoyed doing it and I know there's no Monday column like it but the lift of doing it isn't feasible on my own.
These poor Jaguars defenders trying to tackle Malik Washington
hell yes, man! Congrats!
The McLaurin deal is getting reported as up to 3/$96M. That would match the A.J. Brown deal, sixth for WR in AAV. The real money is going to be way less than that. This was always the real/perceived value compromise that made sense and could have been figured out months ago.
You're talking to a sicko who drafted him two years ago in a devy dynasty league... so I get it.
Did not think a contested fade was in Thronton's bag. But add that to this? Whew, I'm in. bsky.app/profile/danp...
D'onte Thornton was a fun dart-throw prospect because of the ridiculous big plays but he's been doing *real* wide receiver things this preseason and that's a super intriguing development for the LV offense
It’s way too early for a Hawai’i game to be in the Fourth quarter. This needs to be happening at 2am
It's the 10th anniversary — what?!? — of the best wrestling match I've ever seen in person www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qA9...
Made a quick video about how the Panthers are setting themselves up to fail by how they approach kick returns www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwpa...
man i just did this and it's beautiful
Yup, you'd be right. TB was sixth-worst on returns
The weird thing is the Panthers are one of the teams ahead of the curve on the other side of this while kicking low and/or short of the returner, which appears to be the best way to limit returns.
Not only do the Panthers start facing backward, the blockers retreat when the ball is caught. That's consistently making first contact with the kicking team at around the 25. Compare the two shots to the Chiefs, who have had the most consistent returns in preseason, with first contact before the 30
The more I've looked into kickoffs this preseason, the more I'm shocked CAR approaches kick returns how they do. The Panthers also did kick returns like this last season, with the blockers facing the returners, and @ftnfantasy.com had them with the worst return value in the league.
These guys sold out the Gramercy and that’s pretty fucking cool @dannyheifetz.bsky.social @dannybkelly.bsky.social
There are many full answers to this but shout out specifically to "fuck my life" during Manchild, which has risen to the single-most useable line to sing in almost any daily context
I've been looking at this from the other side — how teams align blockers for returns. Panthers use 6-3 alignment, which is the most common (14 teams, in some way) but they're the only team that lines up blockers facing returner. So far this preseason, they have a league-worst 18.0 yards per return
which seems like a red flag. but that's just me
The thing about Daniel Jones is the downside isn't all that different from Anthony Richardson, it's just in a different (I guess less embarrassing) way. To act like he's some safe, stabilizing, raise the floor type of player is nuts.
oh no
From the Almanac: Over the past five seasons, only Josh Allen’s 206 DYAR on scrambles in 2022 was higher than Jayden Daniels’ 191 DYAR last year.
I believe Deebo still has juice left
One of the fun things from the Bears last night was playing with the alignment from Colston Loveland. On second play, 12 personnel and he's out wide to the bottom. On his 18-yard catch, 11 personnel but all three receivers are to the right with Loveland to the left.
hiring Jason Garrett as OC might also top the list as the most a bad coach has purposely increased the degree of difficulty on himself
Matthew Stafford walking out on the practice field today
The Browns lead the league in "this signing needs a lengthy justification that actually means nothing."
Obvious observation/preseason caveat but watching the spacing created by the Bears offense last night compared to whatever last year was is about as stark a contrast as it could get
JELLY
Mentioned writing about Pony personnel on this pod and why it's usually better in theory than practice without a vertical element involved. Here's the article mentioned. The specific players/teams might be outdated, but the idea remains the same. www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/two...
Rate of trips to the red zone, 2024
Now I really need to go
Ultimately, this is what I think is funny.
yea, "makes that a bit tougher" ≠ "bad"
What you missed in the Pats-Commanders preseason opener, plus Drake Maye and Will Campbell thoughts on a NEW Pats Interference with @danpizzuta.bsky.social! Listen, watch, SUBSCRIBE: 📺 www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_fo... 🎧 shorturl.at/yDTDU
If "she understands third and short' is the bar here, I'm a little disappointed in both of them
Think this is going to be the way for the kickoff. Less hangtime is going to give advantage to the kicking team.
My interview with @latenightseth.bsky.social is on YouTube if anyone wants to check it out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERNI...
A little bit of housecleaning: I've got a newer version of coverage DVOA to use this season which fixes a problem that we had with the metric. It was giving guys in zone coverage much better DVOA than man coverage. That's now fixed, plus there's a bonus in Cover-0 because it's hard. (1/x)
To further a point made in the Almanac, this could put more pressure on the defense to still be one of the best in the league because you're not going to want the offense in more must-pass situations. Even the Eagles dropping to a back-half of the top 10 defense drastically changes things
The Eagles' offense is based around "our offensive line is better than anything you can throw at it" and taking out Dickerson makes that a bit tougher philosophy to rely on
79.7% of kickoffs were returned in the first week of the preseason. That rate was 80.1% in preseason PSW1 last year, then dropped to 75.2% in PSW2, 57.2% in PSW3, and all the way down to 34% in the regular season. But touchback now at 35 looms with starting field position still around the 30
I don’t know if it’s actually possible to be a negative WAR player in an adult slow pitch softball league but guys I am trying
It's time. The Eighth Annual Osprey Awards www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZi2...
Playing behind Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, there's a non-zero chance Riley Leonard starts regular season games this year
Says the man who has yet to play a late afternoon game staring at the sun in Dallas
The Lions are speedrunning their yearly defensive injuries.
This is awesome
Everyone wants to wear @homefield.bsky.social
Some thoughts here: While big plays have decreased, Patrick Mahomes eliminates bad plays. Brock Purdy had second-highest Boom% despite *gestures at 49ers offense* So much attention on Jordan Love INTs but 12th-lowest Bust% with seventh-highest Boom%. Stroud/Levis should not have same Bust%
Boom (plays with 1.0 EPA or better) & Bust (-1.0 EPA or worse) rates for quarterbacks in 2024, sorted by the percentage difference. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the only two quarterbacks to have a boom rate more than double the bust rate. Will Levis only QB to have higher bust than boom.
