Founder & CEO of Canada’s most sought-after and influential polling firm, Abacus Data. Prof at Carleton University. Davidcoletto.substack.com 🚴♂️🎾🏔️📈📊
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In the next two years, what is the bigger threat? 60% say issues like housing affordability, healthcare, and rising costs pose the greatest risk to the country. 40% believe Trump’s policies and unpredictability are the larger danger abacusdata.ca/canadians-se...
The Psychology of Political Endings: When Support Turns to Disillusionment What psychological research and polling tells us about when people go from supporters to opponents in politics. open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
The Psychology of Political Endings: When Support Turns to Disillusionment open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Why Partisans Stay Loyal and the Forces That Finally Break Them What psychological research and polling tells us about when people go from supporters to opponents in politics. open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
15 years ago, sitting in a TV green room, I was told: “When you want to work for a real polling firm, give me a call.” That comment didn’t discourage me—it fueled me. I wanted to build something different. That’s Abacus Data.
I imagine Poilievre has come to a conclusion similar to @davidcoletto.bsky.social -- and that probably helps explain why post-election Poilievre sounds exactly like pre-election Poilievre. davidcoletto.substack.com/p/the-durabi...
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Built to Last? Why Poilievre's Coalition Holds While Carney's Frays Some thoughts and data from my latest poll open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives Edge Ahead as Cost of Living Dominates and Trump Fades abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives Edge Ahead as Cost of Living Dominates and Trump Fades abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
New polling data suggests the Carney government’s attempt to order flight attendants back-to-work only had the effect of increasing public sympathy for striking workers. pressprogress.ca/carney-gover...
Enjoying this @justinling.ca
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In this moment, Canadians are looking at the flight attendants’ fight and seeing something familiar: a struggle for fairness in an economy that often feels tilted the other way. open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
The Air Canada flight attendants got @davidcoletto.bsky.social from Abacus Data to do some polling research for them. It's very clear: Canadians are on 'Team Flight Attendants' in the strike. abacusdata.ca/most-canadia... Oh, Air Canada. Just give them the pay, hours of rest, and whatever else.
Interesting new polling from @davidcoletto.bsky.social abacusdata.ca/five-years-o...
Most Canadians Side with Flight Attendants in Dispute with Air Canada - @davidcoletto.bsky.social abacusdata.ca/most-canadia...
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If you want to understand the political mood in Canada right now, forget the horse race and focus instead on how Canadians define good leadership. open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
open.substack.com/pub/davidcol... Across all nine “must-have” traits tested, Prime Minister Mark Carney outperforms Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, not just with his base, but among accessible, swing voters. @davidcoletto.bsky.social #CanPoli #Cdnpoli #PrimeMinister #MarkCarney
Are you a subscriber to my substack? I share new data, in-depth analysis and test some hypothesis in what is the equivalent to my personal lab or test kitchen. #63 rising in World Politics Davidcoletto.substack.com
Is AI going to create a new cleavage in #cdnpoli? open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
What is keeping Canadians up this week? Trump, tariffs are dominate again. More: abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
Love to see our tracking research continue to help Canadians better understand our relationship with false health information. @davidcoletto.bsky.social & I are already planning for the next release in January 2026. can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com?url=https%3A...
My latest comparing one year of Starmer in the UK with 100 days of Carney in Canada open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Canadians Show Growing Support for Military and Defence Spending - Abacus Data abacusdata.ca/canadians-sh...
Will AI trigger a political revolution? For paid subscribers: open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
My great former colleague @jenkinsresearch has joined substack and has written a thoughtful piece about the future of the NDP. Take a read, subscribe, follow and share his work. Excited to see his work.
15 years ago today, we started Abacus Data. A few thoughts: Fifteen Years of Asking Better Questions abacusdata.ca/fifteen-year...
New polling on the Carney government’s performance and priorities: Mark Carney’s Seven Priorities: Setting Up a Report Card on Alignment, Impact, and Perceived Progress - Abacus Data abacusdata.ca/mark-carneys...
My smart colleague saying smart things on 📺 m.youtube.com/watch?si=aar...
Direction of the country comparison across anglosphere 🇨🇦 46% 🇺🇸 45% 🇬🇧 32% 🇦🇺 52%
New Abacus Data Canada Day polls: abacusdata.ca/68-percent-o...
Abacus Data Nova Scotia Poll: Tim Houston’s PCs Hold Commanding Lead as Opposition Remains Divided abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
David Coletto: Four myths (and one truth) about the 2025 federal election thehub.ca/2025/06/11/d...
Abacus Data Poll: Nova Scotians are Thinking Big, Dreaming of Being an Energy and Resource Superpower abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
Three Weeks In: How Canadians Are Grading the Carney Government The latest Abacus Data national survey open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Positive impressions of Mark Carney reach a new high abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
Abacus Data Poll: Optimism about the Direction of the Country Reaches Three Year High abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
From earlier this month, @davidcoletto.bsky.social on how the Canadian mindset might have shifted over the last six months. thehub.ca/2025/05/07/d...
New from me. On Mark Carney and populism. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied as Carney government approval reaches multi-year high abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-...
If an election were held now, both the Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would be virtually tied at 41 per cent and 40 per cent New Abacus Data poll for the Toronto Star www.thestar.com/politics/fed...
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From scarcity to precarity—The mindset shift that rewrote Canada’s 2025 election thehub.ca/2025/05/07/d...
What do Canadians (and Americans) actually think about DEI? abacusdata.ca/what-do-cana...
Governing in the Age of Reassurance: What public opinion will ask of the new Carney government and what it means for public affairs abacusdata.ca/governing-in...
Character, Not Charisma: What Canadians Want From Their Leaders Now abacusdata.ca/character-no...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
🚨Final Abacus Data Poll 🇨🇦 🔴Liberal 41% 🔵Conservative 39% 🟠NDP 10% Full details on our final #cdnpoli poll: abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
Clarity or Confusion? What Voters Said They Heard from the Political Parties This Election Campaign Digging into whether there was a clear and consistent premise or central argument to each campaign. open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Come hang out with me, Jayme Poisson, and friends on @CBCNews at 8pm ET/6pm MT on election night to find out what's happening in the Canadian election. Bookmark this site here: www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
Framing the Final Choice: Trump, Change, and the Coalition That Could Decide the Election davidcoletto.substack.com/p/framing-th...
Beyond the Horse Race: A Recap of What We Explored This Election abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
Beyond the Ballot: Stability, Relief, and the Search for Leadership abacusdata.ca/beyond-the-b...
How a Historic Election Reversal Emerged: What Abacus Data’s polling tells us about how this election might end. abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
Polls Tighten in Homestretch of Canada’s Election www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/w...
What Three Words Say About Two Very Different Leaders open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
With five days to go before the federal election, Abacus Data CEO @davidcoletto.bsky.social is keeping an eye on the narrowing gap in various polls between the Liberal and the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. Full analysis: youtu.be/o-iMF5fJ55U #cdnpoli
A full house at this morning’s Mayor’s Breakfast—and for good reason. I had the pleasure of sitting down with @davidcoletto.bsky.social for a timely, insightful conversation on what’s top of mind for Canadians as we head into an election.
Our second last poll of the campaign has the Liberals leading by 3 🔴LPC 40 🔵CPC 37 🟠NDP 11 abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
Great to join CTV’s question period today youtube.com/watch?v=nGUs...
Disruptophobia: How 2025 Flipped the Risk Equation in the Canadian election From scarcity to precarity and the rise of Carney. davidcoletto.substack.com/p/disruptoph...
Instant reaction to the Leaders’ Debates abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
New episode! @SabrinaMaddeaux and I talk to superstar pollster @DavidColetto about factors driving Canada's federal election: Gas Prices, Trump and Angry Young Men, and more! Listen here: www.youtube.com/watc...
The Canadian election is about disruption vs stability, says @DavidColetto, who joins the Missing Middle to talk gas prices, Trump and the growing gender divide with @SabrinaMaddeaux and @MikePMoffatt
Listen in! A good primer on where things stand in the election podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/f...
abacusdata.ca/how-canada-u...
The Resilient Appeal of Mark Carney is One of the Biggest Stories of this Election It's rare to see a party leaders' favourables improve over the course of an election. open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Advantage Liberal: What advanced modeling tells us about why the Liberals are winning abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
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The founder and CEO of Abacus Data, @davidcoletto.bsky.social, notes that Conservative supporters are now the most likely to vote in the next election for the first time in the campaign. Watch his full analysis: youtu.be/TWEncCL6asY #cdnpoli
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/i...
New Abacus poll out now abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
New @abacusdataca poll on #cdnpoli: 🔴 LPC 39 🔵 CPC 39 🟠 NDP 11 But Liberals lead by 2 among likely voters. More: abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
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What do Canadians expect and want a Carney or Poilievre government to do, and why it matters. abacusdata.ca/2025-federal...
Great to be on PowerPlay tonight youtube.com/watch?v=XeZj...
With the Liberals closing in on the Conservatives in a new Abacus Data poll, its CEO @davidcoletto.bsky.social concludes “the Liberals are now the favourite to win” in the next federal election. Watch our analysis here: youtu.be/L5aLCkP83XM #cdnpoli
Just chart tells us everything you need to know about the change in public opinion in #cdnpoli It's like when Carney took office, public opinion just reset. Tough for the Conservatives to litigate the past when this is the new view.
Good to see our misinformation research mentioned here. The work ahead is to build & protect trust in experts, especially medical professionals & it’s not going to be easy cc @davidcoletto.bsky.social thelinknewspaper.ca/article/the-...
🆕 Don't miss #TheHerleBurly podcast with pollsters @davidcoletto.bsky.social, Sylvie Paradis, and Frank Graves. YouTube youtu.be/xEtRLOcnb2w?... Apple podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t... Spotify open.spotify.com/show/0tiRBlL...
A Federal Election is Imminent open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Watch the full interview with @MikePMoffatt, @SabrinaMaddeaux & @DavidColetto on the quickly changing political atmosphere in Canada and the precarity mindset that's besieging young voters. youtu.be/p_X48F3iHg0...
Worth a listen: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t...
Great to be on CBC Power & Politics tonight youtube.com/watch?v=2v-C...
A Canadian Polling Expert breaks down the upcoming 2025 election. I joined Aaron to discuss the key factors shaping the race, including Pierre Poilievre’s challenges, Mark Carney’s rise, Trump’s influence, affordability concerns, media dynamics podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/b...
abacusdata.ca/canadian-pol...
More on this: open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
More on this: open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Carney vs. Poilievre: Unpacking Public Perceptions What Canadians think about both leaders and what that means for what happens next. open.substack.com/pub/davidcol...
Carney is the best leader to navigate Trump chaos, says new @abacusdataca / @the_logic poll thelogic.co/news/liberal...
🆕New Abacus Data #cdnpoli poll reported by Susan Delacourt in her latest column 🔵CPC 38% 🔴LPC 34% 🟠NDP 15% Full details out on Sunday on our website or today for paid subscribers to my newsletter (link in bio) www.thestar.com/politics/pol...
In our latest About That segment, we break down Mark Carney's overwhelming Liberal leadership win and how he stacks up against Pierre Poilievre ahead of the upcoming election.
Abacus Data poll cited www.politico.eu/article/cana...