Seeing going into the White House
Seeing going into the White House
Trump is gonna get that Nobel peace prize, even if he has to bomb somebody to do it
And then...you're not going to believe this...then he said he wanted my support for the Nobel Peace Prize or he would slap us with tariffs...
Trans women shouldn’t be playing in women’s and girls sports? That’s the bigotry?
What did he do?
The Nobel Peace Prize Committee has the chance to do the funniest thing. @govpressoffice-m.bsky.social
WTF? How are you supposed to monetize the presidency if you can’t even levy tariffs and grant exemptions?
Weekend
BREAKING: $NVDA grants Trump a 10 percent stake and primae noctis rights
Trump Jong-Un
The Trump spread: The 30yr yield minus the 5y yield had been creeping up and now is blowing out. Timing of attacks on the Fed probably not a coincidence. Not good for housing affordability (tho 2s10s probably better indicator for that).
Don't forget that the Fed is not only about the price of money. It has broad regulatory responsibilities whose enforcement could be weaponized for political and personal purposes, and it has an infinite balance sheet crony capitalists would love to get their hands on.
"Remember when defense secretary Esper told Trump he couldn’t shoot protesters and Trump‘s response was “not even in the leg?“ You’re gonna wanna file this for future reference." - @dow.bsky.social
I had Buns and Rose' but didn't have the courage to run with it
Steely Flan
Fleetwood Mac n Cheese Led Zeppole
Risk happens fast
I just don't think they want to nudge the market and let the market figure it out for themselves. Inactivist monpol FTW
IMO the objective will be to make as little news as possible about current policy outlook and stick to frameworks and paradigms in the abstract as much as possible
*literally killer
MSTR under the May low
When @carlquintanilla.bsky.social smacktalks the Dow
def trading like it's in distribution mode
The food there is killer tho
Still in range
Platinum bulls beware. $PL_F
pees
Zelensky wants peace. Putin wants piece. They are not the same.
$OIH
Lemme recap the Putin-Trump meeting for you:
Trump now wants to eliminate mail-in voting. Why? Because Vladimir Putin said so.
Lemme recap the Putin-Trump meeting for you:
For Putin, it’s like toying with an emotionally damaged child.
I love the way these guys are trolling each other. Trump points the airplanes at the podium. Putin jogs down a long flight of stairs from his plane to the tarmac.
Weekend
Trump cold-called a Norwegian minister to ask about his bid to win a Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump is determined to get a Nobel prize, and doesn’t care how much he has to destroy to do it.
BREAKING: Sources say Putin to get Nome, Fairbanks, and St Lawrence Island in exchange for withdrawing Russian claims on Anchorage, Juno and Kodiak Island.
Kind of partial to 'Ahrange man bad' tho
Dude. Worse than "Lar and orda"
Reminder to New York newsreaders: the name "Putin" has the letter "T" in it.
I hardly ever hear Fed pundits talking about immigration policy impact on the labor market.
Grazie 🙏
Character limit keeps me from posting it here
Beautifully put by @dow.bsky.social - albeit wasted on the stupid site:
Disciplina. 100%.
La paciencia (disciplina) de la Fed se valida.
That one's homegrown. Haha x.com/mark_dow/sta...
Austrian Screech at Jan 6th. Because of course.
“Carbon dioxide has what plants crave!” was right there in front of him
A+
Can't wait for the "Airports of the Revolutionary War" exhibit.
Dick-tater move
BREAKING: Trump nominates E.J. Antoni as Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner
Central planning, with American characteristics
He’s afraid to criticize. They all are — except Dan
Bribes are the mothers milk of central planning — Larry Kudlow rn
Here we go. $OIH
Chart crime pays
Kernen: "It's not central planning when my guy does it"
Don't pretend this is about BLS methodological transparency when you're just trying to find something to say when you go on TV that doesn't offend Trump.
Let him Cook
BREAKING: Tim Cook buys $100 million of $TRUMP coin.
B of A: “.. A simple simulation of %y/y core PCE inflation shows we could cross 3% y/y core PCE in July. Indeed, this is precisely our current forecast .. “.. may also prove too optimistic, as effective tariff rates are settling at levels above our current assumptions.”
You know a republican has to tell pretty ridiculous lies to get Kernen to squirm like a cat getting a bath.
Somebody needs to find Zervos' balls and give them back to him. Can't even get himself to say there's no political manipulation of the BLS data. JFC. Eunuchs all the way down.
Most of them don’t come out and say it. But they all are trying to get you to infer, by talking about the size of the revisions, etc., that Trump just wants to replace the BLS commissioner to improve data quality.
“Trump is worried about the integrity of the data“ Also Trump:
So wrong
BREAKING: The BLS issues corrected NFP data
Roll with it
BREAKING: Trevor Milton to run the BLS
There is no universe in which political control of the statistics improves the quality of the statistics.
BREAKING: The BLS revises Trump's golf score down to -8 from +21, says it was Obama who shot the +21.
The loss of independence of the BLS is not just something that would make economists lives hard … the federal government could ‘save’ a lot of money if it manipulated the CPI.
All the ppl pretending this is about data quality need to be asked two questions, relentlessly: 1) Would Trump have fired the BLS Director if the numbers were good or the revisions were upwards? 2) How can you make the BLS data more accurate and trusted by politicizing it like this?
Fintwit yesterday: "Epstein, attempted coup, monetizing the presidency, whatever, but now you’ve gone and touched my labor statistics."
Triangle. Still. $TSLA
🎶 Ain't no lie baby buy buy buy 🎶 $NKD_F
In response to an exogenous shock, yes, unless and until inflation expectations start to materially increase.
This is the real reason long end yields went higher after the Fed cut last September. (Hint: It wasn't bc the Fed was "too dovish". That narrative came later when ppl tried to politicize it.) Here's the CIti Economic Surprise index:
"Belated Overreaction" is still my bberg header ;)
The Fed has a Reaction Function. Markets have an Overreaction Function. (Mark may actually have said this first years ago, so I could be stealing this even as I QT him).
Reminder: tomorrow we have the least important Fed meeting of all Fed meetings. Doesn't mean markets won't overreact to it. We can overreact to anything. Just means 25bps more or less, or first cut 2 months sooner/later, it doesn't matter fundamentally.
People who still want to call it The Ukraine pronounce it like that.
This is how it works guys: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wwgz...
This is how it works guys: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wwgz...
And, FTR, they are not "refusing to cut"; they are merely saying "not quite yet, just in case"
What Is Driving Inflation? ritholtz.com/2025/07/what...
No, they just don’t wanna get ahead of potential secondary effects from a tariff-induced inflation shock should it appear. It’s really is that simple.
Normalization. They think in the steady state with our current growth rate. The policy rate should be 150 basis points lower. Honestly, picking levels based on models and history isn’t a super strong peg to hang your hat on IMHO, but that’s the thinking.
People make a lot of the argument that the Fed is reluctant to cut now bc last time we had a transitory inflation shock the Fed was perceived to have started hiking too late. But only four of the 12 current voting members were at the Fed in 2021, and two of those four are advocating cuts now.
I do like the Nikkei rn a lot FWIW.
For sure, a lot of structural changes.
Probably the wrong conclusion!
Passive aggressive valuations