I don’t expect markets, Congress, or the courts to come to the Fed’s rescue. My piece asks what can the Fed do now to try to protect itself from political control? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Director of the Economic Program at Third Way. Former Senate Budget Committee Staffer. Budget process nerd. How can I help?
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I don’t expect markets, Congress, or the courts to come to the Fed’s rescue. My piece asks what can the Fed do now to try to protect itself from political control? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
It’s hard to overstate how big a deal this is - for the economy (ours and globally), for the rule of law, and for the proper and efficient function of government. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...
Even the appearance of forcing out a sitting Fed Board member over politics would be a 500 alarm fire for any previous admin Attacking Dr Cook is ridiculous You can yell this is a huge own goal, but they can't hear you over the traffic they're playing in
Well. Here we go
Democrats should focus like a laser on the issue of affordability. Donald Trump is 25 points underwater on the issue of inflation. Since 2024, there has been a 34-point swing against him. Trump promised to lower costs but instead he has driven up prices for working families and small businesses.
thank you Bobby!
Great new analysis from Zach. I worked with Zach back in 2014 on the Senate Budget Committee under Patty Murray.
NYT: “.. the U.S. economy has maintained its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money .. Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.” @nytimes.com @colbylsmith.bsky.social @bencasselman.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b...
Read ours new analysis of OBBBA's impact on kids here⬇️ www.thirdway.org/memo/obbba-i...
The VP is in Ohio today to say OBBBA is good for families. But we did the math🧮. The Republican budget bill is not remotely pro-family on net. In fact, it will leave future generations dangerously worse off. /3
🚨New Budget Analysis🚨 We @thirdway.bsky.social did the math on the Republican Budget Bill--By 2030 it takes more away from kids than potential benefits. By the end of the budget window its a $42B net drain on kid's and their future. /1
We looked 🔎at the final CBO score of the bill and tallied up what could go to kids (like CTC and Trump accounts) what’s taken away (like kids share of SNAP ) and layered in the fact that the next generation👶 faces a growing burden from debt payments as it wasn’t paid for.💸 /2
Read ours new analysis of OBBBA's impact on kids here⬇️ www.thirdway.org/memo/obbba-i...
The VP is in Ohio today to say OBBBA is good for families. But we did the math🧮. The Republican budget bill is not remotely pro-family on net. In fact, it will leave future generations dangerously worse off. /3
We looked 🔎at the final CBO score of the bill and tallied up what could go to kids (like CTC and Trump accounts) what’s taken away (like kids share of SNAP ) and layered in the fact that the next generation👶 faces a growing burden from debt payments as it wasn’t paid for.💸 /2
🚨New Budget Analysis🚨 We @thirdway.bsky.social did the math on the Republican Budget Bill--By 2030 it takes more away from kids than potential benefits. By the end of the budget window its a $42B net drain on kid's and their future. /1
New budget math from @thirdway.bsky.social coming soon.....
It doesn’t unless those planned grants were going to be reneged on. (Which isn’t surprising)
Just an innocent bystander, no doubt just out walking his dog.
NEW: CPI Inflation rose to 2.7% year-on-year, increasing 0.2% month-on-month Core CPI inflation rose 3.1% year-on-year, growing 0.3% month-on-month
WSJ finds that an important trend has reversed: low wage workers are no longer seeing faster wage growth than high earners. The Bessent Treasury has frequently cited low wage gains as a success of Trump’s economic management www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
A fun thing to watch today: TIPS yields! TIPS interest rates are tied to CPI, like social security COLAs. You can’t escape socaec cuts if these guys mess with inflation data. Bond holders can, and TBH I would. A thing to watch and one senators should be asked about before confirmation votes
Trump Is Replacing Billy Long as I.R.S. Commissioner www.nytimes.com/2025/08/08/u...
I am once again asking everyone to please stop being The Worst.
New paper from me explaining "pocket rescissions," an illegal budgetary maneuver the White House is planning to do in the very near future that, ironically, misuses an aspect of the Impoundment Control Act to permanently impound funds. (Thread on the paper) www.americanprogress.org/article/what...
“The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemns the removal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the unfounded accusations leveled against the work of the agency… A totally apolitical group. files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/...
New tariff executive order just released, and the official start date for tariffs was pushed to next week from instead of tomorrow, but we're raising tariffs for roughly 68 countries plus the EU, with some tariffs now as high as 41%. Literally Liberation Day 2 Electric Boogaloo.
Oof. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
THEY'RE LITERALLY DOING LIBERATION DAY AGAIN
ugh.....
NEW from me. In today's Washington Post, I show that the Trump White House's promise of $6 to $7 trillion in ten-year tariff revenue is fantasyland math. Tariffs may offset just 3% of ten-year deficits (or 1/6 of the new tax cuts) with lots of economic pain.🧵 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
15 million people kicked off their health care. Trillions added to the national debt. Republicans are playing a dangerous game and putting your future on the line.
A thing about modern life I don't care for is every service provider hectoring you to give them an online review afterward. Constant texts trying to get me to give gold stars to the plumber, the furniture delivery guy, the pediatric urgent care, etc. THAT'S WHAT THE MONEY IS FOR
What a sick stat. (i mean sick in both contexts)
Let's put the $3.4 trillion cost of Republican reconciliation law in context. Its tax cuts are so costly that Republicans could have extended all of the expiring tax cuts for families (including millionaires) without cutting SNAP/Medicaid...and it would have cost *less*.
The Speaker is lying
Hello just wanted to say: Public media is a useful public good. It is a source of great local news at a time when local news is being decimated. Also, in my 10 years in public media, I can say people who work here do it because they believe in the mission of informing people. Just noting.
The Republican attacks on wholesome and educational TV programming like Antiques Roadshow, Ken Burns documentaries and Sesame Street is just awful.
President Trump’s agenda of economic chaos just cost Michigan jobs in a very concrete way: We’re talking a once-in-a-generation development project, thousands of union jobs gone, and an economic sea-change that we were working toward in Genesee County and beyond.
New post: I dug into the empirical conservative arguments against Powell and Fed's monetary policy. They involve 4 sleights-of-hand, distractions from what's really happening. With a full-court political assault on the Fed, it's worth understanding them. mikekonczal.substack.com/p/the-four-d...
Serious question: If Biden (or most other politicians) had said this they’d be widely mocked for senility. Why does Trump avoid the same? Is it just because people now take reality denial as a given?
tax incentives are almost certainly OK given 45S on paid leave
It's always this stupid. Always.
News flash: Trump doesn't give a s**t about your energy bills.
Congrats everyone, we now have 35% tariffs on Canada for no apparent reason
NO YOU’RE NOT YOU HIT EVERY SINGLE AFRICAN COUNTRY WITH TARIFFS
We are in new territory with Trump’s latest trade letter, threatening a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil starting Aug. 1 —The US runs a rare trade surplus with Brazil, so there’s no deficit to fix —Trump says these duties are explicitly over political concerns, not economic ones
Also: the OBBBA would accelerate both Social Security & Medicare's trust fund reserve depletion by a year. They are touching Social Security, Medicare, AND Medicaid. www.crfb.org/blogs/obbba-...
“The biggest thing this fiscal change does is, when we’re staring at Social Security insolvency in 2032 or 2033, it’s going to make it a lot harder,” says TW's Zach Moller (@econwonk.bsky.social) on the disastrous fiscal path Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" puts us on. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/u...
Being upset about work stuff and having a cry is normal, relatable behaviour
I’m sure there were (which is why it was left in there in the first place as you well know ) but again I suspect they all got tired out from the 24 hr plus bit. That’s just my opinion on why it happened in the end
It violated the Byrd rule. And taken out among other provisions to minimize votes on waiving points of order.
This delay is why I think they have another 10-12 hours to go
My understanding is they are still waiting to see what the next version of the GOP bill is before doing hard text amendments. (Byrd stuff going on)
Pssst . . . it costs about the same amount to shore up Social Security's finances as it does to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. But Congressional Republicans are on the verge of shoveling trillions at the wealthiest, while leaving a shortfall in the program we ALL need and love.
now this is some good economic history work
Great speech last night from @jeff-merkley.bsky.social on how the GOP is using and abusing a technical piece of the budget act to unlock HUGE, debt-busting, tax cuts. youtu.be/12ATCfaX6Ss?...
Go to bed! Rest up! Hydrate!
We trollin'
Can still vote not in the end. There’s time
The Senate Byrd Rule explained (in gifs) a thread 🧵… doing it on bsky!
And… Murkowski’s Alaska carevout gets the Byrd. Your followers knew this would happen.
Here's how: 1️⃣Keep the GOP accountable for governance failures 2️⃣Fight for program integrity in the appropriations process 3️⃣Continue modernizing the government and fighting waste, fraud, and abuse For in-depth insights, read the full report from TW's Economic Program: www.thirdway.org/report/how-d...
Democrats outshine Republicans when it comes to fighting waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government. So why does the GOP own the narrative on this issue? It's time for Dems to take ownership of this effort and continue to improve program integrity and transparency in the federal government.
As @elissaslotkin.bsky.social said at @americanprogressaction.org: things aren’t off because Americans have stopped working hard. It’s because the government hasn’t lived up to its side of the great American deal. It's time that changes.
We need an Economic War Plan that ruthlessly prioritizes the middle class. Watch my speech today as I lay out a vision to do just that. 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiNV...
Big Byrd Wins by Dems in the health care space www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
Sunday?
NEW ANALYSIS: Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” would force 5.4 million more Americans into medical debt—piling on $50 BILLION in new debt for hardworking families and creating financial chaos. www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
You may have heard the Senate has started its Byrd Bath process for the budget bill. Want to know what the process entails? Let @econwonk.bsky.social explain it to you. ⬇️
One huge attack on the government’s ability to fight waste is going unnoticed! 🔎 Here’s why you should pay attention to the GOP attack on the Government Accountability Office (GAO) 🧵
It's one (bad) thing for Congress to mostly stand aside while the executive intrudes on its power, it's a whole other (worse) thing to actively undercut its own ability to stand up for its own choices by seeking big cuts to GAO's funding and trying to limit the Comptroller General's power to sue.
Wow. Republicans are wrong on CBO. Turns out CBO’s estimates have been on target time after time. The reality: Republican tax bills have produced a sea of red ink – massive deficits and debt that hurt American families far into the future. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Social Security just stopped publishing: 📞 hold & busy times on the phone 📝retirement application processing times ♿️disability decision times The question is: why? www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Confused on what's happening in the Senate today? Check out our Byrd Bath explainer video with our resident federal budget nerd @econwonk.bsky.social 👇
Watch @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @11thhourmsnbc.bsky.social discuss the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social report about the combined distributional effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and of tariffs: www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...
Apple learned long ago the Byrd is OK.
Full thread now up! learn about the #ByrdRule on BlueSky!
That's a wrap on the Bluesky #ByrdRule thread. Ask me any and all questions! Drop them below
Parls will provide guidance/decisions based on those arguments and established precedent. But these decisions are not always made public. But it looks like Ranking Member Merkley is releasing them this time! Thanks for the help
So how does this play out IRL. We are in the "Byrd Bath" where the majority and the minority consult separately with the Senate Parliamentarian and then argue against each other in front of Parls as to how she should rule. (this can apply to any parliamentary question not just Byrd)
For example, here are 3 types of things that often end up with “merely incidental” debate: Provisions that affect single targets, waivers for areas/states/people, changing regulations on private industry.
RE: #6 And finally, the “merely incidental test.” This one is subjective. There is not some $$$ budget number that fixes “merely incidental”. As I explain it, to clear the “merely incidental test”, can you successfully 𝗮𝗿𝗴𝘂𝗲 what you are doing is about the spending or revenue changes proposed?
RE: #4 Does this increase the deficit (on net) in the long term? This is going to matter and cause a HUGE commotion depending on if the Republicans get their current law baseline gimmick into play. Permanent tax cuts need to be paid for with permanent savers.
RE: #1 Does it score? Basically, does CBO think it affects the federal budget at all. Can it produce a score or preliminary score of some reasonable size? At least ±$500k can help so you don’t get an asterisk score * Changing only authorizations often don't have a budget effect.
Let me go into depth on 3 of these that are KEY for the current debates we are seeing in the news and on the hill. #1 Does it Score #4 does it increase deficit (on net) in LT. #6 merely incidental budget effects
#6 Things that produce a change in outlays or revenues which are merely incidental(!) to the nonbudgetary components of the provision. – the confusing test.
#5 Things that change Social Security’s core programs. – Did you? Don’t do it!
#4 Things that would increase the deficit for a fiscal year beyond the “budget window” covered by the reconciliation measure. – Does this bill title increase the deficit (on net) in the long term?
#3 Things that are outside of the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted the title or provision. – Did you follow committee jurisdiction?
#2 Things that produce an outlay increase or revenue decrease when the instructed committee is not in compliance with its instructions. – Did the committee meet the budget target?
#1 Things that do not produce a change in outlays or revenues. – Does it score?
The Byrd Rule has 6 things that are defined as "extraneous"
Waiving a Byrd Rule point of order requires 60 votes. So it’s a filibuster-level barrier if you violate it (and its challenged)
Named after its progenitor, Sen. Robert C Byrd, the Senate Byrd Rule governs part of the budget reconciliation process. The Byrd rule prohibits “extraneous matter” from budget reconciliation. “Extraneous matter” was essentially Senator Byrd’s opinion of what shouldn’t be done under reconciliation.
The Senate Byrd Rule explained (in gifs) a thread 🧵… doing it on bsky!
“The most important story is not in the report,” said Kathleen Romig, who noted that the report’s economic assumptions were locked in at the end of last year. “The world has changed dramatically since then.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/b...
Julia Coronado 