Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
There is a story that Obama really hates this part of the presidency, he doesn't like the effusive praise because it makes him uncomfortable. So his whole "oh, stop" thing actually comes from a feeling of unease.
...is this thing on? Freelance Journalist, weather nut, and now apparently YouTuber. YouTube: @theweatherstationexperts
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view profile on Bluesky Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
There is a story that Obama really hates this part of the presidency, he doesn't like the effusive praise because it makes him uncomfortable. So his whole "oh, stop" thing actually comes from a feeling of unease.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
And it applies anywhere. So what's your point again?
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Point still stands. It was a dumb thing to say. Period.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Had Elon kept LiDAR in Tesla, he'd be wiping the floor with everyone right now. Accident after accident has shown cameras only doesn't work. Every robot I have has it for a REASON.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
A lot of the anti-AI voices on AI have people on here thinking AI isn't anything, and that's because they think ChatGPT is everything about AI. It's literally disinformation posing as educated fact.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
I would recommend following Anthropic on this particular issue. Of any of the AI companies, Anthropic has done the most work in answering this question. Their early tests of what current AI can do is a bit alarming. Even LLMs show signs of self preservation without guardrails. It's legitimate.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
There are really people on here still urging Dems to follow "when they go low, we go high." JFC
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
This is happening the same way as every other authoritarian takeover elsewhere. And where it failed, it was because the opposition did things it normally wouldn't. The face of the Admin is a joke, but the people underneath know you and others will react this way. They're betting on it.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
If we are still fighting this eight months into a fascist administration, we're fucked. No, we are not going to do what we did. It DIDN'T FUCKING WORK. Too many of us just don't understand the moment we're in. The time for niceties is long over. You are really not going to like what's coming.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
As I mentioned elsewhere on Bluesky, my prediction is that she'll be in jail by the end of the decade.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
I really hope Dems focus on the ones taking more than what Rep. Ross did, it's practically nothing in terms of what AIPAC gives.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Don't troll Trump with the bill title. This one you do straight down the middle so it looks real bad when the GOP votes against it, since they're supposed to be about getting the government out of people's lives.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
I think the Newsom red state crime issue is gaining traction. How about legislation banning the use of federal law enforcement in portions of the country below the average national crime rate? Put the GOP on record on this issue. It will cost them in 2026.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Specialized models are forecasting hurricanes with 100-mile errors out to FIVE DAYS. Gen AI is proving useful in modeling complex scenarios like the atmosphere with incredible detail. Models find correlations that would have taken scientists decades of human research. But let's build chatbots. WTF
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
What Meta is doing with AI will hurt us all. Not bc it's AI, but because Meta made it appear like AI is worthless, because they use it for useless shit like this. People have no clue of some of the breakthroughs AI has brought because we're too focused on building useless chatbots. Regulation now.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Prediction: Laura Loomer will be in jail by the end of the decade.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
She will be in jail by the end of the decade. That's my prediction from all this. She will be one of the folks who will cross the line in such a way that criminal charges will be warranted. She has the intelligence of a child.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Schwarber probably just made it all but impossible for the Phillies to re-sign him in the offseason. His stock just went way way up.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Notice EVERY bit of this is a jab at some tick of the president or his folks. It's trolling Trump even just so. I am loving this.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Oh that's right you're in WA i knew that. Yeah, Washington is a weird bird. You get the ultra MAGA, and the tankies, all in one, and all over the place vs Oregon where its basically Portland and then MAGA country :D
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Reposting this reply. I think this explains some of the surprising pushback from corners of MAGA. I think they support the idea, but the visual has been something they associate with the stereotypical shitty country.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Like, I think they envisioned it as some patriotic team of LEs swooping in and getting the bad guys, and now see it's them jumping out of Penske trucks at Home Depot and are like, wait, wasn't this something I saw on Fox that happens in those shithole countries?
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
where are you? i went to your profile bc i dont think i ever knew. I really don't think a lot of MAGA really understood the deportation thing at all.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Bluesky is overusing "Nazi" like MAGA is overusing "woke."
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
The funny thing is, my tankie friend, is that you're in here talking about foreigner treatment when I don't know one Communist society that has EVER treated outsiders well. So please review your own personal beliefs before making a statement like that.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Obviously, you don't understand psychology. Struggle causes resentment. And my god, so Bluesky of you to go right to Nazi. Come on. GTFOH
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
If we're going to do a real Reconstruction, we need to show the South what the GOP really did to them too over the past 30 years
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
...realize the conditions people are living in. Ghettos don't just exist in the inner city. If we're going to insist on talking about all political issues through a racial lens, we're going to continue to lose. Some issues transcend race, and I think the Democrats need to learn this very quick.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
...important. Is it our fault? No. But can we blame them for thinking that way? We've disinvested out of exurban America not just socially but politically. Name the last Democratic-led effort to give poor communities across the South ACCESS TO RUNNING WATER, or paved streets. I don't think people...
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
...pressures they aren't used to. What's missing from these voter's lives? Community and government support. So as this occurs, and these people see investments in minority communities for the SAME issues they're experiencing, people feel like their pain, as real as anyone else's, is less...
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
...factor of about two, it is DRAMATICALLY different from just 10-20 years ago. There IS a massive multi-decadal demographic shift underway in the United States, that isn't a right wing talking point. At the same time, many predominantly white communities are seeing social and economic..
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Potentially controversial take, but Democrats are going to face a real problem in the way they talk about white Americans. Within the next 10-20 years, the country is expected to be 50% non-white. So, no clear majority. While white Americans by any projection will remain the largest group by a...
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
.. racism and hate is a massive problem in this country. But our focus on it has blinded us to some other equally massive problems in this country which put us where we are today. Mississippi is the way it is because of Democrats, too. You can't just write off people.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
... I'm sure a response will be "well, they're racist." Okay, but not everybody is, and they're still citizens. We still need to get into these communities, show them what good government can do. We had this path in 2016 in front of us. Including the warnings that voters were pissed. We ignored it..
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
...the reason why we're losing people to Trump is the fact that we've told poor white Americans we're not interested. It really bothers me how Democrats have just completely ignored (or fucked over) the white poor. Nobody wants to invest. We are the party of the working class. ..
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Honestly, white Americans have their own set of issues. What is the left going to do when the white population is no longer a significant plurality? It's not words that are the Democrats' problem; it's the way we talk about people. This argument is illustrative of it. Has anybody thought maybe...
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
This over performance is more noteworthy than I thought. Has something changed in Iowa?
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Typing something like "Please do not ship returns before the resumption of package service to the United States in your home country" in my returns and refunds terms and conditions feels like some third world shit, but here we are.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Some of these GOP supermajorities are just a function of Democratic disinvestment.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
The 15-20 point swing in special elections continues to hold. While not a bellwether for GE results, it's where you'd want to be to have a good 2026. A good 2025 goal would be to break GOP supermajorities in state houses in every state. Even in the reddest states, it would be completely doable.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Democrats need to be prepared to escort Cook into the Fed. Ensure that she is working, etc. Do not take anything from this Administration at its word.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
The only reason I know what this was is that we have a local WWII air show and they take over the old airport. On the roads in, somebody puts replica Burma Shave signs... one of the customers explained what they were. But this is just brilliant
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Why does this dude feel the need to get caught up in semantics continuously? It's essentially a stake in the company, my dude.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Idk, I am not even sure we'll make it to 2026 in the form we all know so why are we even talking about 2028. it feels like an uncertainty as crazy as it sounds.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
If you put Pritzker and Newsom side by side and said no others, I'd choose Newsom. I like Pritzker, but he comes from a state that Democrats can't say is on the up and up politically. The California battles are much easier to fight, because, unlike IL, many of the claims are bullshit. Walz is better
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
If the Supreme Court allows the bullshit firing of Cook, then we make the court enforce it. Stop following the court if the other side is not going to, it's that simple.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Right here is why we lost. The moment we muzzled a guy that SOUNDS like the average American, we handled the keys to Trump.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Which Dem governor is going to have the balls to declare a state of emergency before Trump comes in? Depending on the state's constitution, emergencies provide the governor additional powers. Get creative, Democrats.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Oh my god, we're talking about the poors!
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Not only are the Democrats going to be fighting Trump, but disaffected Republicans are trying to transform the party into the old GOP. This is why every Third Way or AIPAC Democrat must be removed over the next two cycles. Third Way is already trying to dictate 2026. We need to say no, you lost.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Fuck Third Way. And there's polling to support that, esp from Indys. If you're interested in this, go third party. Any Third Way/AIPAC (pretty much the same) Democrat isn't going to survive another eight months. No single organization has been responsible for more damage to the brand than Third Way.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Good lord, come in and there's 30+ notifications just for this. You do realize that a court action requiring the block would affect people outside the state. Focusing money on where users really are isn't a bad idea.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
The fact that Gen Z lauds George W. Bush as some type of good GOP model shows you how far our politics has sunk over the past 20 years. Like there is a large segment of voters that don't know anything of the pre-2000 era of politics. At all.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Love Cracker Barrel and love the renovation, long overdue. Now open stores outside of MAGA world so when they have a tizzy over something so sorely needed, you can count on normal consumers.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
They have to. Not doing so could endanger the site outside of MS.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
I am assuming MAGA is going to skip completely over the part where Maxwell destroys any Bill Clinton-Epstein connection that is central to some of their mythology
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Like how don’t the names of these places become as just awful to hear 40-50 years down the road as Auschwitz, because just the name alone brings to mind the horror of the entire damn thing
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Okay maga won’t but republicans just beginning to slide down the black hole, maybe.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
It feels like there’s enough good left in Americans of any political persuasion to have a visceral feeling of disgust over how cavalier the GOP is with the names of these concentration camps. I can’t see how that itself doesn’t have a role in 2026. It’s just.. Iike Nazi-level gross.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
I should note that my ad revenues are from YouTube, most of the affiliate revenue comes from the website.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
It's one month so it could be statistical noise, but this is coming at the same time where all of a sudden ad revenues just fell by 30-40%. So definitely not just noise, those things aren't really related directly.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Not tooting my own horn but i am good at sales copywriting. So I average around a 5-10% conversion rate in a normal consumer environment. But that dropped to about 2.5% for much of inflation. This is the first month since inflation that I've had conversion below 5%. So that is worrying me.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
The slowdown is broad for me. Ad and Affiliate revenue, down. For me it was ~60 days for the first real drop. But this month has been straight up weird. While there are some external non-economic issues, if you use a metric like conversions, I'm back to peak inflation for numbers this bad.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
What South Park did to Towelie was criminal. #JusticeforTowelie #DontForgettoBringaTowel
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Two things can simultaneously be correct: the initial impact of the tariffs was far more muted and gradual than expected. But that doesn’t mean the ongoing effects will be too. It feels like we have maybe 60 days before the next shoe drops. 3Q numbers start rolling out the second week of October.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
We may be acting too late though, but better to at least try rather than throw our hands up and say, oh well, too late now
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
It's a lack of regulation. Which has broad bipartisan support, because everybody has a rightful distrust of big tech.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
They are figuring it out, and I am here for it. And guess what, we're going further to fix this horribly corrupt economy that has fleeced the middle class, Erick!!
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Blue states might want to start thinking of measures to begin strangling the red states feeding this. You send troops in? You lose support. Start hitting these states financially. Make them pay.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
I really would like the public to focus on the amazing things AI is doing, like modeling our atmosphere in ways that up until five years ago was complete fantasy for atmospheric scientists. But no, we have Mark fucking Zuckerberg's bots turning into pedos. JFC.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Thank you Trump Administration for backdooring socialism into the US. You fucking idiots. Didn't think America's socialist future would become more likely due to ::checks notes:: Howard Lutnick and Donald J. Trump.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
This is why you get put through the ringer with your salesperson and then the Finance Manager. Those add-ons are the dealership's profit, pretty much.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
That dealer, from just a quick calculation in my head based on what I've learned of how car pricing works, is going to take a several-thousand-dollar loss on every vehicle it sells through that. People don't realize that the wholesale price of a new car isn't far below the MSRP.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
This is not a sign of a stable market, for sure. Anecdotally, I've heard from friends within the business that car sales, normally slow during ahead of the end of the year sales, are even slower. Dealers have far more inventory than they should at this time of year, and that's a problem in 2026.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
I understand the resistance to Janet Mills in Maine due to her age. But I also think in some states, we might not have the liberty of a young, spry, capable candidate. Remember, these are six-year terms -- and most young politicians may not want to commit six years to a position.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Also, let's focus on youth in the House, which is where many of the Senate candidates come from... and are we really worried about the senate when everybody thinks it's something that should be changed anyway?
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
She doesn't seem like one of those that "it's my turn" types. But if Maine wants her in DC, we shouldn't stand in the way
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Age is not important to me if the candidate is right. Janet Mills might be the right one. A one term senator likely, but I would not stand in her way. I know we're trying to get away from it, but she's paid her dues, and deserves a chance. Also, she probably is keeping her own age in mind anyway.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Fox was the big one for these folks, now they're just looking to deter anyone else.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
is just looking to get paid, so they're not going to fight on the semantics.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
That gets fought out in arbitration/courts between the insurance provider and the insured though. And since this was a settlement, it's a bit different. Probably has that clause that every settlement has "this is neither an admission of guilt nor innocence," etc. In many settlements, the plaintiff
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Part of the reconstruction should also include Puerto Rico. The GOP has made that island a hellhole. It's time to support American citizens and rebuild the country's infrastructure to the standards all Americans enjoy. We need to make this about every group of Americans the Republicans have fucked.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Watching millennials reach middle age has been fun. The generation that nobody believed in is the one that has the most even-keeled view of everything. They knew an America that at least attempted to overcome its worst impulses. That is an experience Zoomers didn't have.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
you know what I know on that. Smartmatic came in way behind Dominion so i think after dominion settled it just fell out of the media coverage... but the trial had just started right? i feel like they were really far apart. But everything feels like 10 years ago right now lol
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
..insurance by the industry. People don't realize how easy it is to libel somebody. Did it 17 years ago on a sloppy mistake that cost me my job. Their problem then was they never bothered to carry it which was not my problem, but was a concern for them if they would have been sued.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Okay, journalist here. The insurance we carry is for exactly this. This is a civil act btw, and a settlement. While they'll likely fight it out in court, the insurance will cover at least a portion of this settlement depending on how much coverage they purchased. It's literally called Libel...
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
...more utility than that apparently. I do applaud Anthropic for the work they're doing lately. While everybody is trying to make money, a lot of their work this year has been on guardrails. The discovery that these LLMs may have built in resistance to this gross shit is pretty huge.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
..to end chat sessions if it felt the output it was asked to create was morally inappropriate in tests. It found that Claude would in many cases refuse to operate. That was shocking to me. But it shows that LLMs can police themselves if asked. People focus on ChatGPT output, but LLMs have much...
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
The fact that Anthropic has already disclosed that LLMs show some type of "resistance" or "discomfort" to performing tasks considered morally questionable (creating photos of underage children, etc) tells you Sam Altman and Elon Musk are the problem, not AI. Anthropic gave its AI the capability...
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Bluesky is so weird with no algorithm. I’ll go days with no engagement and then some random post takes off 🤷♂️
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
Newsmax made $171 million in 2024 on a $72 million loss. So, right there explains the terms, they have no money to pay. Their insurance is about to skyrocket. This might be the beginning of a long protracted collapse of the network, unless they find revenue quick.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
You know, I didn't even think of that. But I'd be watching their inflows like a hawk
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Split Ticket recently did a study of moderate house members, and found that out of all moderates, Richie Torres performed THE WORST relative to what their modeling suggested is the best result for the district for a moderate candidate. In other words, as ineffective as you could be without losing.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
If a quarter of New York City conservatives are voting for Mamdani after months of "he's a jihadist" messaging, maybe it's time to drop the "he hates Jews" shtick, because he currently is leading among Jews too. I will say it again, this is Islamophobia being disguised as "concern."
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social) reply parent
It's a huge settlement for Newsmax's size. What needs to be watched is how its paid. If they're forced to pay it out of their own revenues, it's quite damaging, but unlike Fox it's a lot easier to hide larger sums of money from benefactors
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
Since Josh needs a bit of help with his fact checking in his advanced age.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
If you can't bring yourself to support Zohran Mamdani by now and are defending Jon fucking Greenblatt, you have absolutely no place in the future of our party. No amount of meetings, focus, or attention on Jewish issues by Mamdani will be enough for you. It's closet Islamophobia, period.
Ed Oswald (@edoswald.bsky.social)
And Josh Marshall just runs right in to defend. Stop thinking Josh Marshall is an honest journalist. He’s not.