Associate Professor in Political Behaviour at the LSE. I like campaigns and do experiments. http://www.florianfoos.net
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Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Congratulations to our brilliant colleague in the LSE Government Department @lsegovernment.bsky.social Carl Müller-Crepon @carlmc.bsky.social on being awarded an ERC Starting Grant for his project "Border Change and Local Development in Europe and Beyond"! 🎉🎉 www.lse.ac.uk/news/latest-...
Amazing news, Diane! Can't wait to see what comes out of this project.
Amazing news, Carl! Many congrats!
This is exactly spot on when it comes to the outsized impact that universities have on the economy in cities outside London/Oxbridge: www.theguardian.com/education/20... Unfortunately again nothing more than platitudes from the government though…
Ooh we've opened our call for small research grants. £10k for any humanities or social sciences research. Open to independent scholars. We use partial randomisation to allocate the funding: random allocation between all that meet the quality threshold www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/ba-l...
Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered! In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision. These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives. So, these party blocs matter.
Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens). Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour). These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Single member legislative districts are just such a bad system, especially when parties are polarized (i.e., in any modern political system) Forthcoming APSR shows firms, not just voters, are gerrymandered into/out of districts for partisan gain ungated SSRN version papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Plus it's not like these are actors who have no experience with the political process...
There is this tale that the British left couldn't care less about parliamentary representation or power in general, but I'm not sure this is true to the extend that some believe it to be true. I'm not saying it's going to happen but dismissing the possibility out of hand seems wishful thinking.
I think the British commentariat underestimates the potential of a coalition to the left of Labour "getting their act together". The next months will show, but it has been done in many other European countries. The electoral system does focus minds - think about the German WASG/PDS alliance in 2005.
Yes, overwhelmingly obvious, but that hasn't stopped leftwing factionalism in the past, of course. Let's see how it plays out over the next months.
I think we are relatively far away from a Green-left government, but as we have seen, voters are volatile and parties can currently win a large number of seats on a relatively low vote share.
There are also plenty of examples from other European countries (Scandinavian countries, Netherlands etc), where similar alliances have been formed in the past.
Polanski has clearly signalled that he wants a deal and at least Sultana should see that this is their only real chance to seriously compete in more than two handful of seats. Lots of obstacles on the way for them though.
Resounding endorsement from Green members for a more campaigning populist radical left approach. Which means they will be competing on the same terrain as the new Corbyn-Sultana party. Will they find a way to work together (formally or informally) to avoid splitting the vote?
I agree this could happen - we are talking about the left including elements of the radical left after all, but it's clearly in their interest to find some type of pre-electoral pact. I would think that your option 1 - splitting seats - is the most likely outcome.
Again, if you make the progressive left in Britain politically homeless, people will eventually find or create new home(s) for themselves. It's not rocket science, is it?
As I've said before he's, without doubt, very talented a politician and I'd be very worried about what's happening on my left flank if I was a Labour strategist.
Polanski wins Green Party leadership with a huge majority and vows to replace Labour. Not sure I agree with @jessicaelgot.bsky.social that Sultana's party has no role to play (they have support from ethnic minority voters that Greens lack), but agree that they will play second fiddle to Polanski.
Easy to see how voter demographics would make most of the synergies that the Greens and Your Party would have. If they manage to collaborate, Labour will be in big big trouble there.
Of course he wants to run in East London. A Green-Left alliance would be starting in second place to Labour on 20-30% there. It’s not only Hackney N. & Stoke Newington, but also Hackney S., Bethnal Green, East Ham, Stratford etc
Please share: Seeking seed funding to develop innovations for open science, design, aggregation, transfer..? Call open now with @egap.bsky.social egap.org/our-work/res... @awilke.bsky.social Deadline 31 October
Excited about the very first EPSS conference in Belfast next year!🤩 @kenbenoit.bsky.social & I co-chair the Political Communication Section and invite submissions on contents & effects of political communication, broadly conceived, and media-politics relations⬇️Please reach out in case of questions
and stop making up new weird explanations and excuses that fall apart at first contact with reality.
I think that’s a very generous interpretation. How can a partial offer of funding for a degree that doesn’t exist from a specific university be misremembered? 😉 It just appears like someone massaged her CV there. There is worse than this, but yesterday would have been a good time to come clean ...
Going for another pint with your friends?
There are still issues with nursery places keeping up with increased demand & not all nurseries taking the free hours for 3+ year olds they are entitled to claim (they say it doesn't cover their overheads, but it's a step in the right direction. Childcare costs in the UK were unsustainable.
Great that this is backed by both Labour and the Conservatives (who introduced it in the first place)!
So there is some good news today about the expansion of free childcare hours in the UK (from 15 to 30 per week from 9 months). Combined with the intro of 15 hours for 9 months -2 year olds that kicked in last year, this saves parents around £600 per month/kid. It makes childcare more affordable.
Musk keeps on pushing the worst elements of the British extreme right, regularly sharing calls to deport all migrants AND ethnic minorities. And in the meanwhile the UK government keeps on using his platform to communicate.
🚨NEW DATA 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0 You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/... You can find our release note here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
That sounds like a good idea.
🤓
A few more weeks to apply for this tenure-track job in sociology at the University of Vienna, focus on quant research methods jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Tenure-T...
New article by @dziblatt.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/hitl...
Very clear on anti-migrant hate crime and without any of the caveats that have become all too common. See, it is, after all, possible to speak clearly from a principled position on this topic. I didn't necessarily expect leadership from an East European head of state on this topic.
It‘s a sign of the times we are living in that I‘m impressed by a statement from a centrist President that calls out xenophobic violence and reaffirms liberal values. Good on you, President Dan.
🚨 New in Journal of Politics! 🚨 Do radical right parties need to cut ties with old dictatorships to succeed? 👉 @sergipardos.bsky.social and my study of Spain’s VOX says: ❌ Not necessarily.
Well deserved, Vicente!
Deadline is 31 August 👇
📢 Call for Papers – London Experimental Seminar Series (LESS) in Political Science @lsegovernment.bsky.social. We are launching a new forum for experimental political science research: First seminar: 19/11/2025. Deadline: 31/08/2025. Submit here: forms.gle/ZUJcBbZoDoaY...
If I'd be mean I'd wonder whether "X can't even say where the camps will be" is such a neat strategy to counter the radical right. I think I need to get some air.
Looks like we are now live-broadcasting Reform events on mass deportation plans on major TV channels including the BBC. We've just published a study showing that this type of coverage moves public opinion in an extreme direction & normalises those ideas further: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
I'm dying slowly inside.
Just look at that BBC's write-up (www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...). It has one critical sentence and that sentence says "The proposals could face legal challenges and political opposition, with Labour branding it unworkable and the Conservatives accusing Reform UK of recycling their ideas."
Case in point.👇
Some do an MA in journalism at Westminster, but what’s the proportion of journalists that have critically engaged with the role of the media in a non-media setting before?
I think some of this might have to do with how journalists are or are not trained in this country. There appears to be little formal training (as opposed to says Germany where most journalists attend specialized schools), most if it happens on the job, learning by doing.
Obviously for some of those papers and TV channels, it’s not so much failure as success in pushing the agenda they support. But we need more critical reflection among mainstream media journalists and other media professionals about their role in what’s currently happening in this country.
There is a lot to criticize about how German media cover the radical right, but this feels like another level of collective failure here combined with a total lack of self-awareness.
Many UK media are actively contributing to Reform’s rise. The non-stop reporting and exaggeration of anti-migrant protests that don’t get more than a few hundred people on the street, the portrayal of extreme minority opinions as mainstream, the constant obsession with Farage.
Am 8. September diskutiere ich mit anderen Expert:innen für die Böll Stiftung (online) die Bedrohung der liberalen Demokratie durch die extreme Rechte in Europa und den USA und was man dagegen machen kann und muss. Hier kann man sich anmelden: calendar.boell.de/de/event/boe...
Totally unclear to me what the political project is.
I guess the government would have failed the budget vote in any case. But still difficult to go into an election arguing for more cuts when otherwise not that much has been achieved by Bayrou unless I’m missing something (who had also been dealt an almost impossible hand).
Oh good. Calling a no confidence vote to push through spending cuts. Difficult for the Socialists & Greens to support on that basis obviously. Was this really necessary? I don't get why Macron/Bayrou so badly want an election again. Difficult to see how this improves the situation for the centrists.
In many countries, mainstream politicians are adopting rhetoric and policies that typical of the far-right. Our new paper (w/ @dziblatt.bsky.social and E Dinas), out now in the @bjpols.bsky.social, finds that doing so erodes norms more than when far-right politicians make similar statements. 1/3
I think the Greens will be the more important part of such an alliance if it will come into being, but if Polanski wins, I don’t see many programmatic differences here, just a difference in emphasis, culture and support base. Sorry to be blunt, but all of this is entirely self-inflicted for Labour.
2) throwing out two handfuls of leftwing MPs for minor rebellions & 3) moving right on every issue that the left cares about, wouldn’t result in a new party to Labour’s left that gets some support?
While this type of survey question is always a little fishy, it shows that a Green-Left alliance will likely hurt Labour. And the steps that got us here were entirely predictable and unnecessary. Who was the strategic genius again who thought that 1) preventing prominent left-wingers from standing
I guess there are also different roles that different academics can take on. We need people who are highly trusted by the public, for instance to do the exit poll, interpret the results at election night etc. But that’s not the only role that academics can play in public debate.
Tbh if we are at the stage where I’m rounded up, we are having different problems as a country than a lack of trust in academics. 😉
Maybe this would be an interesting topic for a roundtable at one of the conferences (eg PSA, EPOP or EPSS) though..
Fair! But very difficult to do sth about what content is visible short of running your own platform…
and would argue that their quality and impact (in a good way) has been increasing. I.e. the idea idea that I would ever be seen as a relevant source of evidence by a Reform government is a joke. We all know that wouldn’t happen, no matter how much I was trying to hide my political views..
Tbh I totally disagree with that take. Take Bonica’s and Grumbach’s work referenced here (I know that is not Dan’s point but they are clearly Silver’s target in the referenced post). That work is nothing short of relevant, excellent and impactful. I have read a lot of great academic substacks too..
But anyways, it hasn't happened yet and there are 4 years left. Let's make them count.
Foreign policy would be a big battle ground, where I expect the most push back, but really, how much push back would there be right now when Farage goes after minorities of any kind? Large protests, yes, but protest laws in the UK are already relatively illiberal in some instances.
Also and more importantly, I fear they will try to change the environment, think BBC license fee, Ofcom, Electoral Commission etc...
Yes, you are right. It will be utter chaos. But my fear is that a majority would be so large that they can easily lose some MPs and that a rump Conservative Party would back them up in any case. And that there would be action in areas where all Reform MPs would agree -e.g. migration, asylum, crime.
Yea .... no.
Fantastic system of government this is, entirely reliant on norms without anyone there to enforce them.
The only problem is that even devolution can be reversed by the UK Parliament without the need of a referendum.
And to be fair, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolution. Looking at you, England.
Yes, 100%. The only "constraints" are the civil service and the monarch 🙄 and we know that those have been very effectively circumvented or incorporated elsewhere in earlier radical right regimes.
On taxing a property's value above 500k: That's an excellent idea. It will hit London hardest, but that's also where most of the property wealth is, and for families owning a home valued around 500-700k, the additional cost looks about manageable.
Similar vote share to Reform’s polling, not their current one, obviously.
Just checked and UKIP supported AV, but preferred a more proportional option.
Can’t remember, but there is a long track record of statements that say as much. He’s obviously changing his tune now.
Yea… or any other party for that matter if it’s reversed. Zombie “majoritarian”.
And Farage is a long-standing supporter of proportional representation.
Well, still time to change the electoral system. 🤓Parliament is sovereign in the UK, right?
Little illustration for why you really do not want to have FPTP in a fragmented party system. Labour wiped out everyone in 2024 on a similar vote share.
The reason why fundraising text read like scams is because they are. The political fundraising system has imported the tactics of elder financial fraud. These tactics are designed to filter out skeptics and specifically target and exploit seniors. 95% of scam PAC donors are 65+, costing > $500m.
I'm sharing this call here cause Anna Clemente isn't on Bluesky, but this is very much her brain child (which has my enthusiastic support!).
About the seminar: 4 pre-circulated papers per session 30 mins discussion each Termly sessions (2h) Dates: 19/11/25 | 18/02/26 | 06/05/26 Venue: LSE, @lsegovernment.bsky.social ~15 participants Join us for a new platform to share & discuss experimental research in polisci!
We especially encourage submissions from early career researchers at London universities. Papers should use experimental methods in political science. Pre-analysis plans especially welcome for feedback! Please note: no travel/accommodation covered.
📢 Call for Papers – London Experimental Seminar Series (LESS) in Political Science @lsegovernment.bsky.social. We are launching a new forum for experimental political science research: First seminar: 19/11/2025. Deadline: 31/08/2025. Submit here: forms.gle/ZUJcBbZoDoaY...
🚨New paper from our colleague @dianebolet.bsky.social and co-author @florianfoos.bsky.social: Media interviews with extreme-right activists normalise their ideas. 👉 Uncritical interviews ↑ agreement & perceived support 👉 Critical interviews ↓ persuasion but still raise perceptions of popularity
Once again, PBC is back and calling for your applications! As always, this is a no-budget but heart-rich story — and we can’t wait to see your proposals!
and where leftwing voters are too upset to rally.
I‘m sure that the whole Labour strategy is to bank on voters rallying if Reform are projected to win a majority but that assumes that there is a clear gap between Labour, LibDems and Greens. MRPs will play a big role in coordination, but there is a scenario where the parties are close…
That‘s why I‘m saying that the electoral system is uniquely bad.
*NFP
That’s not quite right. The NPF withdraw all candidates in the second round where they came 3rd. RE didn’t where the radical reft advanced, but many candidates did on their own accord. Do there was some elite coordination even if imperfect. This is much easier in a two round system btw!
That being said, of course there should be pacts that span the entire left against Reform, but go tell that to Labour leadership and let me know how it goes.
That counts for both party elites and voters…
Divisions on the left are too deep. There can be coordination between Lab and LibDems on the one side and Greens & Corbyn/Sultana on the other side, but that’s about it.