If Russia establishes a commanding presence in the Black Sea, it will likely prolong the war in Ukraine—and “provoke turbulence in global energy and commodity markets,” warn Daniel Hamilton and Angela Stent.
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If Russia establishes a commanding presence in the Black Sea, it will likely prolong the war in Ukraine—and “provoke turbulence in global energy and commodity markets,” warn Daniel Hamilton and Angela Stent.
Trump’s tariffs and sanctions are eroding Washington’s standing in Brazil and accelerating the country’s shift toward China, writes Hussein Kalout. “With Brazil, Trump seems to have walked into a trap of his own making.”
“China and Russia are right to see AUKUS as a threat,” write Gary Roughead, Marise Payne, Nicholas Carter, and James Mattis. If the Trump administration abandons the alliance, it will “do the work of Washington’s adversaries for them.”
“In the modern era, air superiority is not just a prerequisite for joint success; it can be the decisive factor,” writes David Deptula.
“When it comes to Israeli intransigence regarding Palestinians, the prime minister alone is not the problem,” argues @dahliasc.bsky.social. “The problem is Israeli society, politics, and culture as it has evolved over decades.”
“Without strong leadership, Japan is ill equipped to meet the singular domestic and international challenges of the current moment,” writes @mireyasolis.bsky.social. “Key among these is Tokyo’s need to redefine its relationship with the United States.”
“Any blatant move by Beijing to try to control the process of selecting the next Dalai Lama may backfire by driving Tibetan resentment into rage,” write Tenzin Dorjee and Gyal Lo. “For the Chinese, the issue is strategic; for Tibetans, it is existential.”
To end the war in Ukraine, Trump must convince Putin to accept Ukraine’s independence, argues Dmytro Kuleba. “The sooner the phrase ‘land swap’ is excluded from Trump’s vocabulary, the better for Washington’s peacemaking efforts.”
If historians do not begin to ask and answer vital questions about U.S. history, others will—and their history will be based on myths, prejudices, and hatreds, warned Jill Lepore in a 2019 essay.
When it comes to Chinese military action, political calculations usually trump combat readiness, argues @fravel.bsky.social. “Beijing has rarely waited for the right conditions before ordering the PLA into battle.”
“Protectionism disfigures capitalism and undermines democracy,” writes @javiercorrales.bsky.social. “It makes consumers angry about inflation and a lack of choice. It makes private companies less competitive and more corrupt.”
The AI contest between the United States and China is not a singular race—it is “a multifront competition whose outcome will shape the international balance of power,” write Colin Kahl and Jim Mitre.
Instead of seeking to prohibit uranium enrichment in Iran, Washington should “negotiate an agreement that permits but strictly limits and rigorously verifies uranium enrichment,” argues Robert Einhorn. https://fam.ag/3HOKzd6
After three and a half years of war, maintaining democratic unity and accountability—what Ukrainians call the “wartime trust”—has become more critical than ever in sustaining Ukraine’s capacity to fight, writes Nataliya Gumenyuk.
Listen to the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” featuring @himself.bsky.social and @abenewman.bsky.social on how the United States has weaponized economic interdependence for decades—and why the tables are turning today: https://fam.ag/45VUghA
When those with power and influence bargain with authoritarians, they accelerate the demise of their own democracy, argues @dziblatt.bsky.social. “Democracy rarely dies in a single moment. It is chipped away via abdication.”
“Ideally, scientists should defer the creation of mirror life. But in the event that does not happen, countries must intervene proactively.” Read @kateadamala.bsky.social on the promise and peril of so-called mirror organisms:
A new piece I wrote appearing in FOREIGN AFFAIRS today www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/warn...
“The United States has learned the lesson that the right response to drug epidemics is not to launch a ‘war,’” writes Vanda Felbab-Brown. “It would be a tragedy to have to learn this lesson again, this time with far more agonizing consequences.”
Leila Seurat explains how Hamas’s aims have evolved since October 7, 2023—and argues that, despite Israel’s “relentless escalation,” the group shows little willingness to disarm or leave Gaza:
For a diplomatic resolution to succeed in Ukraine, Trump must get the order of negotiations right, writes @mcfaulmike.bsky.social. “Forcing Kyiv to cede territory before negotiating security guarantees could embolden Putin to restart the war to derail further talks.”
The Trump administration’s foreign policy is likely to help China “consolidate its influence in South Asia, invariably at India’s expense,” writes Happymon Jacob.
“As unlikely as it may seem, Trump’s bombing campaign could lead to a breakthrough, but only if both Washington and Tehran can put their history of missteps behind them and approach diplomacy with vision and patience,” argues @valinasr.bsky.social.
Read Leila Seurat on how Hamas’s approach to the war in Gaza has evolved over time—and how the group’s strategy “could make Israel’s controversial new campaign to seize Gaza City a military, as well as humanitarian, disaster”:
Read Andrei Lankov on why the Kim regime might accept a Trump deal—and what an agreement between the United States and North Korea could look like:
Switzerland, Taiwan, and Vietnam may be unlikely models for capitalism in the twenty-first century—but the world’s largest capitalist countries can learn from their rise, argues Ruchir Sharma.
At the summit in Alaska, Putin “matched Trump’s performative diplomacy with performative negotiations”—and essentially manipulated Washington into believing that Moscow was making serious concessions, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social.
“If the Trump administration (or any other administration) moves to undermine the Fed’s independence, that would ultimately raise government borrowing costs, not lower them,” argues Kenneth Rogoff.
Taiwan’s denuclearization efforts have undermined the island’s energy security—and it is time for the island to change course, argue Jim Ellis and Steven Chu.
Read @andreisoldatov.bsky.social and Irina Borogan on how the Kremlin is using Russia’s commercial cybertechnologies to further its interests around the world:
Read Kenneth Rogoff on the dangers of Washington’s debt addiction—and what it will take for the United States to avoid an economic crisis in the years ahead:
Putin’s New Cyber Empire: How the Kremlin Is Embedding Russian Technology Around the World, by Irina Borogan and me for @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...
“Immigration is not a zero-sum game: more immigration can boost local and national economies while improving the fortunes of people seeking better lives,” argues @akoustov.bsky.social.
The idea that U.S. President Ronald Reagan had a plan to bring down the Soviet Union is a myth—one that is leading Republicans astray with regard to China, argued Max Boot in a 2024 essay:
“Trump’s ultimate goal ought to be like Reagan’s: to get to a deal with Washington’s principal adversary that reduces the nightmarish risk of World War III—a risk inherent in a cold war between two nuclear-armed superpowers.”
The Trump administration is increasing the risk of a major intelligence failure, argue David Gioe and @genmhayden.bsky.social. “Brave analysts may no longer be willing to stick their heads above the parapet to provide intelligence that Trump needs to know.”
Explore our September/October issue, featuring Adam Posen on who profits in a post-American world, Wally Adeyemo and Joshua Zoffer on what it will take to fix the world economy, Suzanne Maloney on the future of Iran’s nuclear program, and more: https://fam.ag/4fPslol
“No statement, summit, or social media post can substitute for actually understanding Ukraine’s demands,” writes former Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. “Kyiv will not lay down its arms until it can be sure its independence is properly safeguarded.”
S. C. M. Paine discusses the ongoing “clash between the continental order and the maritime, rules-based order”—and urges Washington to leverage its maritime geography.
“If the United States hopes to constrain North Korea’s nuclear program, it will need at least tacit support from China—and ideally, Beijing’s active cooperation,” writes Shuxian Luo.
Read Michael Johnston on the style of corruption Trump is now embracing—and what it will take to shore up “the guardrails meant to check corruption and the excessive concentration of power” in the United States.
“Washington will never succeed in building a more democratic, equal, and peaceful world if it fails to control endemic graft.” @cjcmichel.bsky.social, Trevor Sutton, and @mattduss.bsky.social call on Democrats to build a policy agenda focused on anticorruption:
Listen to the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” featuring the renowned historian Margaret MacMillan on what the United States’ approach to its alliances will mean for the future:
“It is a tragic and destructive irony that, in the name of national security, the United States is now injuring the allies that have contributed the most to its economic well-being while leaving China far less disadvantaged,” writes @adamposen.bsky.social.
Our September/October issue features Anne Neuberger on Washington’s losing cyber strategy, Michael Froman on the case for a new economic system, Vali Nasr on evolution of the U.S.-Iranian relationship, and much more. https://fam.ag/4mLt2RK
Read Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social on how the Arab Gulf states can “break the cycle of conflict and instability that plagues the Middle East”:
To compete with China on technology, the United States must recognize that its current playbook is ineffective—and start building up its own deep infrastructure, argue Dan Wang and Arthur Kroeber.
“Trump is right that the global trading system needs restructuring, but his proposed cure for global trade imbalances threatens to be worse than the disease,” argue Wally Adeyemo and Joshua Zoffer.
Read @samwl.bsky.social and Nikita Lalwani on how AI advances could undermine nuclear deterrence—and “encourage mistrust and dangerous actions among nuclear-armed states”:
In “Zbig,” Edward Luce examines Zbigniew Brzezinski’s underappreciated role in opening the United States to China, ending the Cold War, and shaping the world that came after. Read Tom Donilon’s review:
In a review of “Zbig” by Edward Luce, Tom Donilon explains how Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, played a crucial role in bringing the Cold War to an end and shaping the world that came after.
Nirupama Rao, Dhruva Jaishankar, Lisa Curtis, and Ashley Tellis weigh in on India’s efforts to build a multipolar world order—and debate what the future of U.S.-Indian relations should look like.
“With Trump’s tacit approval, Russia can call a brutal offensive war cautious and defensive,” writes Michael Kimmage. “Trump’s genius for dominating news cycles has thus started to work to Russia’s global advantage.”
“It has been clear from Israeli actions as well as the rhetoric of numerous Israeli officials that Israel’s war is not simply against Hamas but aimed at all the residents of Gaza,” writes Robert Pape.
Kenneth Rogoff discusses the United States’ debt addiction—and warns that “the possibility of a once-in-a-century U.S. debt crisis no longer seems far-fetched.”
S. C. M. Paine argues that today’s great-power contest “is just the latest iteration of the continental-maritime conflict”—and explains how geography informs a country’s outlook.
Tyler Jost and Daniel Mattingly discuss China’s coming succession challenge—and consider how Xi Jinping’s eventual departure could allow a “more moderate and temperate leader” to emerge.
Anne Neuberger raises the risks posed by China’s cyber dominance—and weighs in on how the United States can “reclaim the advantage in the digital battle space.”
Vali Nasr traces the roots of hostility between Iran and the United States—and argues that it is still possible for the two countries to lower tensions and set their relationship on a different path.
“The problem for the United States is that the Trump administration is gutting the very resources that it needs to advance U.S. interests and protect against countermoves,” write @himself.bsky.social and @abenewman.bsky.social.
Suzanne Maloney considers how the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iranian nuclear sites could shape Tehran’s strategy—and warns that “Iran is down but not yet out.”
Wally Adeyemo and Joshua Zoffer make the case for a new global trading system—one “built on global cooperation that promotes fair trade and strengthens American competitiveness.”
Michael Froman argues that instead of trying to restore the old global trading order, world leaders should build a new economic system around coalitions of the like-minded.
Dan Wang and Arthur Kroeber argue that instead of trying to slow China’s technological progress, U.S. policymakers should build up industry and deep infrastructure at home.
Adam Posen warns that the post-American world economy will leave everyone worse off—not least the United States.
Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman weigh in on the new era of economic coercion—and how the United States should navigate the new realities of weaponized interdependence.
New in @foreignaffairs.com w/ @himself.bsky.social. As the economic weapon proliferates, how can states (particularly the US) protect itself and the world. Hint: not by decapitating it understanding of the world economy. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Our September/October 2025 issue is now available online. Start reading here:
“Chinese President Xi Jinping sees his military agenda as a centerpiece of his legacy.” Jonathan Czin and @johnculver689.bsky.social discuss Xi’s fixation on reforming the People’s Liberation Army:
A new war between Ethiopia and Eritrea can be prevented—but “the only actor with the leverage to bring the multiple actors to the table is the United States,” write Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe and Alex de Waal.
Ami Ayalon discusses how the October 7 attacks transformed the strategic landscape of the Middle East—and argues that, for Israel, a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “has become a strategic necessity.”
“The fight for Ukraine is also a fight for the future of the Black Sea,” write Daniel Hamilton and Angela Stent. “Efforts to end the war must be paired with a robust strategy to prevent Russia’s dominance in the greater Black Sea region.”
Read Carter Malkasian’s 2023 essay on what the durability of the Korean armistice—and the high human cost of the delay in reaching it—reveals about how the war in Ukraine may end:
Read G. John Ikenberry and Harold James on how the successes and failures of past peace settlements can inform a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine:
In January 2025, Senior Editor @kanishktharoor.bsky.social spoke with the political economist Nicholas Eberstadt about the global crash in fertility rates and the looming prospect of depopulation. Listen to the conversation here:
Stacie Goddard argues that U.S. President Donald Trump’s vision of the world “is not one of great-power competition but of great-power collusion: a ‘concert’ system akin to the one that shaped Europe during the nineteenth century.”
“The postwar order ultimately decayed because what many saw as its greatest strength—how its institutions, norms, and rules were grounded in liberal principles—was actually a source of weakness.”
In its negotiations with Russia, the Trump administration must “emphasize the need to release and repatriate wartime detainees,” argues Tanya Lokshina.
Six months into Trump’s second term, Chinese policymakers now believe “that they have far more power and leverage over the United States on trade than they had previously imagined,” writes Yun Sun.
“The closer Israel gets to total triumph, the closer it will be to complete uncertainty, to perils unleashed by pent-up humiliation, anger, and fury,” write Hussein Agha and Robert Malley.
“China is more directly involved in South Asian matters today than ever before,” writes Happymon Jacob. “If Beijing can burrow even deeper into South Asia, it will have Trump to thank.”
When it comes to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the United States “must remember that it uniquely has the tools and leverage to avert an escalating catastrophe,” write Jacob Lew and David Satterfield.
“Trump seems to see foreign relations much as he sees the worlds of real estate and entertainment, but on a larger scale. As in those industries, a select group of power brokers are in constant competition—not as mortal enemies, but as respected equals.”
To pressure Putin in Ukraine, Trump should “revive the good cop, bad cop dynamic with Congress that helped Obama secure the Iran nuclear deal,” argues Edward Fishman.
On the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Nicholas Eberstadt considers how declining fertility rates will reshape the global order. Start listening here: https://fam.ag/3HxHpdm
“Climate policy is not just about environmental obligation: it can and should foster investment, jobs, growth, and long-term competitiveness,” writes @nilskupzok.bsky.social.
Anne Neuberger calls on Washington to craft a new cyber strategy—and lays out how the United States can “achieve the benefits of digitization and a free Internet without compromising its national security”:
Read Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko on the talks that produced the so-called Istanbul Communiqué, a framework for a settlement between Ukraine and Russia—and how the lessons of Istanbul can inform today’s negotiations:
Israel’s campaign in Gaza has failed to sever the ties between Gazans and Hamas—and it has left Israel more isolated and with more adversaries, writes Robert Pape. https://fam.ag/47pcPgz
“Removing Netanyahu from power might well help bring an end to the unfolding disaster in Gaza,” writes @dahliasc.bsky.social. “But it is unlikely to fundamentally reorient Israeli policies toward the Palestinians.”
“Democracies require robust opposition,” write Steven Levitsky and @lucanway.bsky.social. To preserve U.S. democracy, Trump’s critics must resist the urge to retreat to the political sidelines—even as the cost of public opposition grows.
Read @akoustov.bsky.social on how public backlash to immigration is reshaping global politics—and what it will take to prevent xenophobic parties from gaining more ground:
“Historians often call World War II a ‘war of factories.’ The same is true for the war in Ukraine today.” Read Eric Schmidt and Greg Grant on how drones are shaping operations in Ukraine—and transforming the nature of war:
The Trump administration is laying the groundwork for the military to take on a much larger role in domestic security, writes Risa Brooks. “This new orientation is dangerous for the U.S. military and for the country it serves.”
Instead of fixating on the prospect of a “grand bargain” between the United States and China, U.S. policymakers should focus on manageable objectives, such as reducing the risk of war, argue @wjhurst.bsky.social and Peter Trubowitz.
“Operation Rising Lion reaffirmed airpower’s ability to achieve meaningful political outcomes without a drawn-out ground war.” Read David Deptula on the lessons of Israel’s air campaign against Iran:
Thomas Bollyky, Chloe Searchinger, and @prof-yadav.bsky.social discuss the United States’ growing dependence on foreign sources for critical medicines—and call on policymakers to diversify the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain:
“If an anarchical trade system is undesirable, but a return to the status quo ante is impossible, that leaves one clear task: developing a new system of rules even as the global economy moves away from a fully multilateral rules-based system,” writes Michael Froman.
“The stark reality is that neither Russia nor Ukraine has much of an incentive to stop the fighting,” writes former Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. “As a result, for now, a cease-fire in Ukraine is impossible.”
Trump is unlikely to succeed in peeling Putin away from Xi, write @mcfaulmike.bsky.social and Evan Medeiros. “In private meetings with Trump administration officials, Putin and his team may flirt with using cooperation with the United States to balance China. But it will all be a game.”