No shit Sherlock! Now, what will you do about it?
Foreign, security and defence policy analysis. 15 yrs @ Danish Defence Intelligence Service. Sportsnerd.
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No shit Sherlock! Now, what will you do about it?
Det er så sikkert som amen i kirken, at Trump ikke kommer til at indføre repressalier mod 🇷🇺, selvom Putin obstruerer et topmøde med Zelensky. I stedet peger flaskehalsen på Europa, når Trump skal udpege de skyldige for hans egen diplomatiske fiasko. Min analyse👉🏻 nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2025-...
“Reptilian intelligence”💯
The three big question marks surrounding the Flamingo: scalability of production, survivability, and accuracy. Let’s see if higher-resolution pictures can provide some indication of how far the missile missed its likely nominal aimpoint.
Another meaningless deadline looms tomorrow. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out Trump won’t do anything about it. If Trump cuts and runs from his delusional diplomacy it’s actually an advantage for Ukraine and Europe. My latest analysis👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Delusional
Trump and his tech oligarks are in for a mad gambit in Greenland! If you missed my live with @malcolmnance.bsky.social , you can catch it right here👉🏻 substack.com/@jacobkaarsb... Enjoy!
My pleasure to discuss Trump’s efforts to take control of 🇬🇱 with Canucks 🇨🇦 Lev Shalev and Dean Blundell. Did you know Trump/MAGA employs the same tools to stir separatism in Alberta that we see in 🇬🇱? Give the show a listen right here👇🏻 open.substack.com/pub/narativ/...
I’ve been outside the Brussels bubble this summer travelling around Europe, spending time in 🇫🇷🇪🇸🇮🇹🇵🇱🇧🇪🇹🇷🇬🇧🇬🇷. In talking to Europeans, a grim reality has become apparent. We are facing a crisis of confidence in facing the 🇺🇸 threat. How can we make Europeans believe in themselves?
🇵🇹🇺🇸 President of Portugal on Trump: The leader of the world's greatest superpower is objectively a Soviet or Russian asset. He functions as an asset.
I'll join forces with @malcolmnance.bsky.social live on Substack Friday at 7 pm. CET, 1 pm. Eastern to discuss 🇺🇸 subversive activities in 🇬🇱. If you want to know what the hell is going on catch 45 mins of unfiltered, no-nonsense, hard-hitting analysis👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Another night of 🇷🇺 terror in 🇺🇦. The last figure I heard was at least 10 fatalities. How can Europeans accept it? Unless we do more, the situation will get worse!
Ukraine didn't volunteer to fight this war. They had no choice but to fight when Putin decided to invade! This is a war of choice for Russia, a war of necessity for Ukraine. Not a hard distinction to grasp.
Even Saddam would have been proud of so many Comical Alis in one meeting room🤡
Oh what a glorious morning kayaking on the lake 🙏 Did a brief uncut, unfiltered and today also handheld update on everything 🇺🇦 on my way back. Watch my morning intel brief here: open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Last time Trump and Kim “fell in love”. The meeting was a remarkable success…🙈
Resistance!
Imagine being under daily 🇷🇺 terror attacks and then respond like this👇🏻 Putin won’t control Kharkiv EVER!
🇺🇦Today, Ukrainians around the world in celebrate Independence Day, a pivotal moment that marks the resilience and determination of a nation striving for sovereignty and self-determination.
My video "Nato Expansion is a Lie" has gone over 1 million views on YouTube! That is extremely impressive considering it is just a 36 minute PowerPoint presentation about Eastern European history. Good people want the truth! youtu.be/7gxssycoxz0
While Russia increased its deadly drone and missile strike campaign, the Trump administration limited the use of long range missiles on military targets inside Russia. It’s a reintroduction Biden’s failed policy. It tells Putin that he can win the war! www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Super kækt! Det er ret vildt, medierne ikke stiller sig selv det spm, når de strikker Andromeda-teorierne sammen
Navnlig blå søheste!
Ja dels det, og så var der jo altså også russiske flådefartøjer i området på samme tidspunkt. Ganske koldblodigt, hvis det som påstået er et lille ukrainsk dykkerhold på en lystbåd med den russiske flåde omkring sig, vil jeg mene
Kreativitet, Kasper. Kreativitet…
Ja naturligvis. Det fortalte Kirill Dimitriev allerede om til BBC’s Steve Rosenberg i foråret…
Trump isn’t happy about 🇷🇺 destroying one of the largest 🇺🇸 non-military businesses in 🇺🇦. Isn’t that wonderful? 🙈🙈🙈
You’d think this is a joke, but it’s not🙈 Another “couple of weeks”…ffs🥶 edition.cnn.com/2025/08/22/p...
Hvorfor bruger du ikke “en blå hest”? Skuffende operativt design
The purge continues…
Breaking…
Og på det mest uegnede tidspunkt…
What should we make of the arrest of a Ukrainian national in connection with the Nord Stream sabotage? And would should we make of the Russian strike on a US factory in western Ukraine? Watch my assessments in my Intel Brief👇 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
If peace is to prevail in 🇺🇦, it’s through strength, not through Trump’s concessions to comrade Putin. The Flamingo 🦩 is the way to go👊🏻 apnews.com/article/ukra...
Everyone needs to realise these so-called "peace talks" are a sham. Trump is still being manipulated by Putin, whereas 🇺🇦 and the Europeans are afraid of saying so. The can is kicked down the road and 🇷🇺 continues it's efforts to bring 🇺🇦 to submission
A reflections from two sharp defence analysts Some notes: - Europeans like to talk, but there's little in the way of force to give their words strength. Military means for European and Ukraine need be meaningful. - Putin needs get the sense he'll lose. - Trump's negotiations are unrealistic.
Jacob Kaarsbo: Fra Alaska til Washington er mønstret det samme – Trump manipulerer pressen, Putin manipulerer Trump Nyt interview for RÆSONs abonnenter: www.raeson.dk/2025/jacob-k... #dkpol
Delighted to have the sharp mind of @gresselgustav.bsky.social join me for a Live discussion on Substack yesterday to dissect the White House Summit and where it leaves 🇺🇦. If you missed it, you can catch it right here👇🏻 substack.com/@jacobkaarsb...
The summit in the White House didn’t bring 🇺🇦 an inch closer to peace, but a breakdown in relations between 🇺🇸 and Europe was averted. Putin has managed to manipulate Trump and there will be no meaningful pressure on Putin going forward. My analysis (in Danish)👉🏻 nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2025-...
Talk between @jkaarsbo.bsky.social and @gresselgustav.bsky.social jacobkaarsbo.substack.com/p/live-with-...
I'd say it's impossible to find a more insane interview than the Fox and Friends' interview with Trump this morning. Literally nuts!
Zelensky keeping his cool after this insane question is very impressive. The “journalist” is clearly angling for a new “you’re gambling with WW3” moment 🥶
Very ridiculous indeed👇🏻 I’d say though that Putin will be fine with hollow Budepest-style “guarantees”. I’m also sure he’ll be confident that Trump won’t commit to “defend every inch of territory” kind of guarantees.
It just occurred to me that of all the state leaders meeting in the White House, Zelensky represents the country with the largest army. Sure, the US and others have more expensive equipment, but it's still food for thought.
Amazing clarity there!
Rocket science in the Oval Office😂
If you can’t score goals then move the goalposts😜
LIVE session tomorrow at 4 pm CET with @gresselgustav.bsky.social and myself. Where will tonight's White House meeting take 🇺🇦 and Europe? 👇👇👇 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Jeg har dissekeret Alaska-topmødet med David Trads. Se med her👇 Live with Jacob Kaarsbo og David Trads substack.com/@jacobkaarsb...
Americans don’t like Putin. Republicans don’t like Putin. Democrats don’t like Putin. Independents don’t like Putin. Nobody likes Putin, except Trump.
BREAKING NEWS: I support SecDef Hegseth here🙈😂😂😂
Such a stark contrast.
Putin probably just can’t believe how easy all of this is
It'll probably be lost on the Trump team what Lavrov's CCCP-shirt means. FFS🥶
The 🇷🇺 supply chain for Shaheds is vulnerable! Let it burn🔥
PRÆMIERE LIVE: “TAGET TIL EFTERRETNING” Lørdag kl. 10 (dansk tid) går David Trads og jeg live på jacobkaarsbo.substack.com for at dissekere topmødet i Alaska mellem Trump og Putin. Vi dykker bag spin og retorik og fortæller, hvad der virkelig skete! Snup en kop kaffe og følg med kl. 10 i morgen😊
Indeed
We need to be very careful about using the word "peace" today or to talk about "ending the war". What we will see most likely is Putin and Trump agreeing to a deal that might bring a temporary ceasefire, before Putin rearms and tries again to take over Ukraine. It wont be peace.
Trump’s road to peace in 🇺🇦!
What's going to happen when Putin and Trump go 1v1 in Alaska tomorrow? Trump's threat of "severe consequences" is the least likely scenario. Read my latest analysis right here 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Woaw, how did they figure that out🙈
Trump’s smokescreens are launced again! Odds are that European media and many pundits will buy it. But like I said exactly a week ago before Trump’s “deadline”: Trump is a master manipulator of the media and Putin is a master manipulator of Trump🥶
Today's virtual summit between Europeans (incl Zelensky) and Trump isn't likely to have much impact on the Alaska Summit between Trump and Putin on Friday. The pattern we've seen so far tells us, it's likely that Putin will play Trump like a fiddle. My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
⚡️'Alaska opposes tyranny!' — Pro-Ukraine rally planned ahead of Trump-Putin summit in US. The rally, scheduled for Aug. 14 in Anchorage, is being held to protest the "presence of an international war criminal" and as a show of solidarity with Ukraine, Stand Up Alaska said.
Trump actually speaks the truth here. He’s bothered by constitutions, rule of law, democracy and that sort of thing in general!
The Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska on Friday has started a diplomatic "code red" for 🇺🇦 and Europe. The cards are stacked in Putin's favour and a deal acceptable to 🇺🇦 and Europe is unlikely. So too is a seat at Trump's poker table! Watch my 10 minute briefing👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Header of the day! Instead of pressure on Putin, Trump hosts the war criminal in Alaska. For both, this is about propaganda. Whatever they propose on 🇺🇦, it’s likely to put immense pressure on 🇺🇦, Europe and democracies. As “agent orange for gardening🥶 I’m on 🇩🇰 TV2 og TV 2 NEWS at 9 am!
Sorry posting my "Morning Intel Briefing" late🤪 As hours pass, it gets more important! Last night was wild...in the realm of security policy😅 Subscribe to my Substack to get access to my 16 min briefing on 1) Trump-Putin summit, 2) Bibi's Gaza "plan" and 3) Good news...will leave it as cliffhanger😅
👉🏻 Ceasefire will be up to Putin. 👉🏻 Deadline cancelled. 👉🏻 🇮🇳 gets punished an extra 25% on exports to 🇺🇸 for buying 🇷🇺 oil. 👉🏻 Trump-Putin summit in a few days in 🇦🇪 where another “beautiful deal” will be reached.
IDF chief Zamir: “Occupying the Strip would drag Israel into a black hole — taking responsibility for two million Palestinians, requiring a yearslong clearing operation, exposing soldiers to guerrilla warfare and, most dangerously, jeopardizing the hostages”! www.timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-sa...
No worries
Totally fair, but today alone I uploaded two vids for subscribers. I upload written analyses a couple of times a week. I'll do live-sessions with Q&A and interesting guests too. Just serviceinfo.
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Recognising the state of 🇵🇸 is likely to strengthen radicals on both sides of the conflict who oppose the two state solution and make the release of the remaining 🇮🇱 hostages less likely. Recognition before hostages and Hamas leadership are out and PA reformed is very high risk! Check out my new vid 👇
Der gode politiske grunde til at anerkende Palæstina 🇵🇸 som selvstændig stat, men det er farlig vej. Det vil styrke de kræfter på begge sider af konflikten, der modarbejder en tostatsløsning. Derfor vil vi bevæge os længere fra målet. Min analyse👉🏻 www.altinget.dk/eu/artikel/j...
The likely scenario: Putin, Dimitriev and the FSB will run Witcoff’s Tucker Carlson interview and remind him of his duties towards mother 🇷🇺. No meaningful pressure. A “beautiful deal” and lots of smoke and mirrors is what’s likely to happen!
Hilarious this😂😂😂 Trump has to sack a lot of statisticians though! www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/...
Good!
“As complicated as reaching a sustainable and secure two state solution is, the only alternative is Israel embroiled in forever war and ending up as an international pariah”. My latest on Substack👇🏻 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
In 🇧🇷 attempted coups are actually prosecuted. 🇺🇸? Not so much🤔
Bolton ain’t impressed: “Trump doesn't understand how our nuclear navy works or what their plan of operation is". “They don't have to go anywhere, they're already there, and hopefully undetectable so a Chinese or Russian first strike can't take them out at the beginning"🙈 www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/u...
Good!
Well, what a surprise🙈
🇨🇦 and 🇬🇧 have signalled they may recognise Palestine at UNGA. 🇩🇪 Chancellor Merz has stated 🇩🇪 may support suspension of the 🇪🇺🇮🇱 association agreement. The three countries are amongst 🇮🇱 closest supporters. Why? Would recognition be a good idea? Check out my new vid👇 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy. My rant in the @financialtimes.com
😂
Trump's sabre rattling won't rattle Putin! Read my latest analysis on Substack 👉 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
When even 🇩🇪 distances itself from 🇮🇱, it says everything about the radical behaviour of the current 🇮🇱 gov't!
It’s not Bradley IFVs themselves. It’s maintenance and repair kits
This is NOT an approval of an aid package from 🇺🇸. This is approval of a Foreign Military Sale meaning it’s paid by someone else, likely the EU or a European country, which donates to 🇺🇦. Eg ammo for 🇺🇦 bought in 🇰🇷 isn’t a 🇰🇷 donation either
This is NOT an approval of an aid package from the US. This is approval of a Foreign Military Sale ‘meaning is paid by someone else, likely the EU or a European country, donating to 🇺🇦
Nothing is true until denied by the Kremlin…sorry the White House…😂
If you’re surprised, you’ve been living on another planet!
Ja helt enig. Den er go’ nok. Det er en af grundene til at Putin er tiltalt for krigsforbrydelser v ICC. Det er en ren tilståelsessag, for Putin har stolt fortalt om sin praksis på RU stats-TV. Derfor er det heller ikke sandsynligt, vi vil se RU levere de kidnappede børn tilbage
This is insane!
"President Trump [...] will continue to ratchet up the costs on Vladimir Putin." Not sure how you can "continue" to do something when you've only done the opposite. Trump has been weakening or removing the costs on Putin since he took office. No reason to expect any change.
De aktuelle kampe i 🇸🇾 er sandsynligvis fremkaldt af 🇮🇱. Ingen tegn på, at påstandene om massakrer mod druserne og støtte til terror er sande. 🇮🇱 forfølger tilsyneladende en katastrofal politik, der kan genantænde den 🇸🇾 krudttønde! Min analyse på Substack👇🏻 open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
My comments on Trump’s smoke and mirrors yesterday⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Trump’s smoke and mirrors on 🇺🇦 support exposed! Europe is on its own to save 🇺🇦. The Trump administration will make money by selling weapons and ammo, but the donations are European⬇️ Trump promised Patriots for Ukraine. Now Europe has to provide them - www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Jacob Kaarsbo: Trumps hårde linje mod Rusland er et røgslør. Jeg er fuldstændig enig i den konklution. @jkaarsbo.bsky.social