Texas. Senior director of polling at YouGov. Adviser to Young Men Research Initiative. johnlray.github.io
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Shares of WLF have only fallen about 5 percent since the "Trump to make announcement" post. Feels like the Trump family would be inside trading harder on their father's impending mortality if thats what this was about. Volatility spiked a bit about an hour before, however.
question for DC-area people: i have been working with an online biz startup service that doesn’t fit our needs anymore (we are growing and need a real person!) please DM me if you know a good local startup lawyer, ++ if they know digital media/services
the construction of the people actually doing things to fight and win being a "yall" to you is interesting to me but unfortunately even with that you're really not earning this level of general annoying-ness. hope tomorrow is a better day for ya.
I don't understand these words and choose to take them as disrespect
paradoxically we could not report the data as every single respondent assured us that we should weigh their views very heavily
We've occasionally been asked about doing surveys of Bluesky users and so far I gotta tell ya, good luck finding enough sample to be confident in the weighting and sampling
sure we're callous and obnoxious, but on the other hand, we're also irrelevant
I have my hunches but one, er, feature of the world I keep in mind is that Bluesky doesn't really have enough users for there to be such a thing as "Blueskyism" willrobinson.substack.com/p/the-future...
landed my dream gig in the Neighborhood Football Guys cadre: the Knows How To Make Wings Guy
"Sir, we understand you were talking to a horse before your rental car exploded?" "Yes, but that was an unrelated incident."
"I'm not a miracle worker. I'm a janitor. No Mr. Giuliani, I'm literally the janitor at the Applebee's you were kicked out of on your way over here. Why did you call me. How did you get my number."
"Sir, by now they've already got ahold of your bodyguard's Insta."
"JESUS man I don't know... tell them i was RESCUING an... an INNOCENT IN DISTRESS before i was HIT AND RUN. i was TOLD you were the BEST"
not just that he has no constitutional authority, there isn't even any particular legal or institutional mechanism by which the president can make anyone treat this as anything other than a weird advisory opinion.
Tyranny requires constant effort. It breaks, it leaks. Authority is brittle. Oppression is the mask of fear.
those 18 seconds of footage of trump at his golf course? don't you mean the 'sa prune-r film?
The year is 2024, President Joe Biden has not interacted members of the press in several days, his visibly bloated figure can only be occasionally glanced through telephoto lenses as he shuffles secretively in and out of the White House. The Beltway press is unbothered by the situation.
"Masters LoR Player" gotta sit out this ranking exercise, chief
hmm. one of the creators mentioned in that Wired piece about liberal donors funding influencers strongly disputes most of the assertions www.instagram.com/reel/DN3xSpI...
Will is smart open.substack.com/pub/willrobi...
for what its worth, getting divorced and getting fired are both really bad for your lifespan! no wonder he wanted to get his job back. www.researchgate.net/profile/Maik...
So if he does kick the bucket there's a non-zero chance a golf cart is involved.
At 79, Trump is actually beating the spread for white male divorcees with an advanced degree. For someone of his demographic profile he's most likely to die of disease but for *all people at that age* the likeliest cause of death is (narrowly) household accident johnlray.shinyapps.io/pDApp2/
people have been calling for The Broad Left to do this for literally years? i guess i'm not seeing the problem
Here's one, for example. I literally had not seen one of these until i searched youtube, they exist as radio ads around here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hezX...
These ads run here in Texas specifically on country radio, like KVET here in Austin. Every ad starts and ends with Kristi Noem reminding you who she is, how much Donald Trump approves what she is doing, and they have the scary music and sound effects of a movie trailer. Purely campaign ads.
At the moment if Trump kicked the bucket Vance would be widely accepted by MAGA and is actually quite popular among them. He is currently on track to walk into the 2028 nomination. But people should also know Kristi Noem is using tax dollars to run for President as well. www.dhs.gov/news/2025/02...
lookin good boss
Goddammit I had this stuck in my head for like 10 years as a kid
when trump does finally kick the bucket i think we can agree Seth Rich's parents get the first dance
On one hand, reducing car use reduces urban pollution. But on the other, everyone likes it and cities become more livable
(AHEM...) This seems like a good time to remind folks that you can help support WHOEVER the Iowa Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate ends up being by donating here. And no, the $ doesn't go to the DSCC...it goes to the actual nominee after the primary. secure.actblue.com/donate/senat...
I will take any crumb
In ascending order of coolness 😎
In many places we are running on "the brand," which is not great in many places. But a bit part of why that brand is not in great shape is because people have no idea what we stand for. Give them a vision to stand for! Many confuse "moderation" with "insincerity" and voters can smell it.
Much of this, frankly, is because being able to campaign on actual policies and issues is something of a luxury in safer seats. Thats a harsh truth we also need to grapple with: Our brand is shit in many swing-ier districts and candidates who "moderate" need to be given grace for that, IMO.
A funny thing I think we need to grapple with is that the more "left of center" Dems are actually quite a bit more in tune with public opinion polling than many centrists, for whom a fictional "gas station moderate" exists as a stand-in for actual research. Trump is a house of Pogs. Act accordingly
This is a great post
If moderates and centrists were actually as obsessed with polling as they're accused of being, the world would be a better place. There are few issues on which Trump is not an absolute punching bag. The data is crystal clear on this point.
Nobody owes anybody their vote, full stop, and to put it as maximally cynically as possible, nobody will support a candidate whose premise is "I will betray people I once promised to protect" and any Dem who does this will lose Basic human decency and baseline respect for others is very popular.
someone should put together a "kennedy death count" for everyone who dies of a preventable disease and just plaster it everywhere www.statnews.com/2025/08/28/c...
100% agree
Being in person is absolutely more effective! Totally agree!
Pick an issue. Trump will be underwater on it. He's dropped like 15-20 percent in the last four months on *immigration* for gods sake. Treating him like he's strong is doing him a favor. This is an extremely weak president.
Trump is weak. He is weak on this issue. Anyone who acts otherwise isn't paying attention.
Not even who the post is about!
Great, I'll stick to polling and you stick to screaming at internet strangers, we got this
Tom Emmer wants to repeal trans refuge. He can’t, and we won’t.
I would not trust my understanding of public opinion if dipshits on bluesky liked me
Buddy you're multiple posts deep on a guy you didn't know existed until 10 minutes ago I do not care what you think about trolling
It's going on my tombstone
Oh no I lost Orlean!
Joke's on you, I actually *didn't* remember this
Unfortunately any modesty I may have about my own limited intellectual abilities is canceled out by "dipshits are mad at you on social media"
Oh my God a screenshot of my profile, I some day hope to recover
Welp shows what I know
You are literally just reiterating my point.
Impeachment is for the President and Vice President, everybody else can simply be fired (and I think there's an argument you'd only need a majority - a resolution of disapproval should apply to current employment).
Probably because you can't impeach the HHS Secretary, idk just spitballing here
This is literally showing that Schumer is doing a better job than McConnell at obstructing nominees
Couldn't write a funnier reply if I tried, well done
One thing that should be a basic is that 219 is, in fact, greater than 218
They do not need the votes to do this and it is actually smart and correct to admit we need to peel off Republicans to make this happen. Everyone who can count knows this.
Hasn't hit the governor's desk yet but aside from that you are absolutely correct, stopping this kind of legislation must be a priority!
Unfortunately most heavy Bluesky users seem to disagree that stopping Trump is a good thing to do, but as a #Resist #Liberal #VoteBlueNoMatterWho Democrat I must very bravely and very correctly say: Trump is bad, actually
Congrats on like the fiftieth extremely sensible reply to me in the past few minutes, you're doing great and many people are proud of you
Yes, it is actually good that Democrats are doing this
its always helpful when people just like, say they aren't paying attention and shouldn't be taken seriously. appreciate it
your brave, legal objection is noted
Doomers: The 2026 election doesn't matter, Republicans are just going to rig the whole thing anyway Various red state republican incumbents: I'm just going to quit now because if I run in 2026 I'm going to get absolutely killed
there are like six insane claims in this reply, huge props for efficiency
I don't think depriving Trump of political power is a "minor procedural matter," I think it's actually very important to do
Hobby shop guys devastated
"timorous" a new word for me, ty for that
It appears that this involves quite a bit of activity!
Yes this content was aimed at you, specifically, just like all online content is
If you're gonna have a tantrum every time I post at least give a fella a follow
BREAKING: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa won't seek reelection to Senate in 2026, sources say.
A TRULY spicy new take over at Young Men Research Initiative: Most young men use porn, but the belief that they oppose porn bans is completely unfounded. Manosphere influencers understand this difference better than many political strategists. youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/young-men-...
i ATE this reply
i mean Caro's gotta take a backseat here
I wonder if the piece mentions that at all, shame its impossible to find out
#BothSides, smart
Phew
It was definitely an unfounded sentiment
Many are saying!
Many are saying
It's Rayburn: A Biography -- MUCH easier read than Caro! www.goodreads.com/book/show/22...
Your whiny personal grievance about this post is noted
Hating the DNC and thinking it has no idea how to win elections: a century-old Democratic tradition
I honestly don't know how Republican Senators tell each other apart, they're like penguins
Constantly think back to the story of the 1940 election as a moment in our party's history. A sclerotic and cash-starved DCCC, an untested Speaker who travels the country for corporate cash, all somehow helping save the party and the New Deal while also launching LBJ as a rising star in the larty
Yes, if someone is going to call me "part of the problem" they need to be willing to also hear something rude in response, correct
can't believe i'm being so rude to this pleasant good-faith interlocutor in my replies
yes, i'm sure it was all the posting on here
its probably more like whats actually described in the article
