Software engineer, electoral geography hobbyist, and puggle-lover.
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Phang: The judge notes that the MacArthur Park show of force was just sheer political theater. Major General Sherman, objected, expressing concern that there would be a large number of people because it was Father’s Day. To which Bovino criticized him, questioning his loyalty to the country.
There’s been a lot of wishful thinking and outright misinformation about the Texas GOP’s new gerrymander. The bottom line: The map may disappoint the GOP, but it won't backfire on them. Our new piece explains why the map is *not* a dummymander.
No surprise in Florida tonight: Democrats are very easily defending two vacant seats in the state legislature. (Stay tuned for final results; but it looks like they're each shift blue compared to November, as earlier special elections have.)
Remember, that "18 of 20" would need to include all-but-2 of: - Oklahoma - Louisiana - Idaho - Montana - South Dakota - Arkansas - Mississippi - Alabama - Florida - Wyoming - South Carolina - Tennessee - Kentucky - West Virginia And that's ON TOP OF all the already competative-ish ones
KASIE HUNT: Over the summer you said, “There’s no vaccine that’s safe and effective”. Do you still believe that? RFK JR: “I never said that.” KASIE HUNT: “Play the clip.” RFK JR (clip): “There’s no vaccine that is safe and effective.” (March 2024) ht: @cwebbonline.com
Because guess what? We can't do a thing about >80% of the awful stuff Trump is doing until he is out of office unless 67 senators want to get rid of him. Remember, after January 6, only SEVEN Republicans voted to convict Trump of inciting an insurrection, and only THREE of them are still in congress
By the way, that 5% is assuming they abuse the heck out of the house's powers, maximize their leverage, block EVERYTHING except the stuff they want (like passing a half-decent budget), use hearings to peacemeal slow-down the admin. That's still only 5% harm reduction.
The real value of Democrats taking the house? Incremental harm-reduction. Right now they can reduce ZERO harm. With the house they can reduce 5% of the harm (15% if they had the Senate). The better value is long term, since it won't be possible for president AOC to do ANYTHING w/o the House.
My point being the original post here was complete insanity and setting up Democrats for catastrophic failure of expectations because they were insisting Democrats do those things "when Democrats take the House."
In what version of the current world is universal health care bipartisan? Do you think a single one of those nazi thugs in the Senate who call themselves Republicans would ever vote for that? Most of them didn't even vote for 1/2 of the bills they took credit for during the Biden years.
Ok so we're just asking for a bunch of stuff to die in the Senate, like what happened during the Biden years?
Ditto.
Elections. Have. Consequences.
Yeah there is: the fact that you'd need 67 senators to get rid of them. Unless voters in Alabama and Wyoming elect Democratic senators next year, or the same people who voted to acquit Trump after Jan 6 suddenly decide to impeach their beloved far-right justices, we're stuck with them.
We NEED to take back the house ASAP, but let's not delude ourselves with fantasies about what Democrats could do with JUST the house. The main (and most important) thing they can do is stop MORE things like the big-bullshit-bill & recissions bill from getting passed.
They did that to Trump 2x for all the good it did.
Norms isn't the problem. The problem is that the house, by ITSELF, can do very little except just obstruct legislation. Almost everything on that list is impossible to do unless the Senate & Presidency also agree to do it.
Great, we'll need 67 senators then.
No none of these things can happen with just the house. All of them also require the Senate, Presidency, or BOTH. Some of them require 67 senators (and that's in the constitution, not bc of filibuster).
These lists are ignoring a very fundemental fact: The house, by itself, can do NONE OF THESE THINGS. All of those things ALSO require approval by the Senate & Presidency. Some of them could be done with just the Presidency.
A Democratic candidate for prosecutor in Virginia wants lawmakers to ban ICE agents from operating while masked or while concealing their identities; she says she’d then prosecute those who don’t comply.
🤦♂️ So.... exactly what Democrats have been doing for months since the big-bullshit-bill started going through congress?
Welch: This is a guy who has redecorated the oval Marie Antoinette style and is building himself a ballroom because he has no intention of leaving.
I'm not going to waste energy amplifying the "EVERYONE HATES DEMOCRATS" narrative which is actively hindering our efforts for 2026. We need to get energy behind the Democrats for midterms NOW, and that starts with US. Screw the leadership.
"speaking up and demanding HHS come before the American people" Tell me... what SPECIFICALLY do you want Democrats to do in this case that they haven't already? Go on TV and say RFK Jr. should resign? (They've already done that months ago).
The press conferences they ALREADY hold barely get shown anywhere.
Because public hearings are scheduled by the Senate majority.
Vaccines are safe and effective. RFK Jr. isn’t.
I'm sorry but how is that "doing something"? With the way the media operates these days, odds are more people will see her social media posts than will see the press conference.
A 5th grader survived the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting, describing how his friend died shielding him. Two kids were killed and 17 injured during Mass. Don’t expect action from Trump, who told Iowa victims to “get over it.” Without federal gun reform, the killings will continue.
It’s outrageous that Sec. Kennedy is trying to fire the CDC Director — after only a few weeks on the job — for her commitment to public health & vaccines. The Sen. HELP Committee must hold a hearing with Kennedy & the CDC Director as soon as possible. Vaccines save lives. Period.
Breaking: According to Minneapolis police, two children — ages 8 and 10 — have been killed in the church shooting. 14 children and three adults injured. Minneapolis mayor Frey: "Don't just say this is about thoughts and prayers right now. These kids were literally praying."
The ones that BARELY voted for Trump: - 36: the district immediately to the east of 63 (Indio, Coachella) - 70/72: south/west OC - 22: Modesto - 59: immediate west of 63 (Yorba Linda) Not only is 63 a bad flip opportunity, there's literally two districts TOUCHING it that are much easier flips.
There are at least TEN districts in CA that would flip LONG before something like AD63. The ones that voted for Kamala: - 7: Folsom, Rancho Cordova - 58: immediate north of 63 (Corona, Riverside) - 74: OC/San Diego span - 47: Palm Springs - 35: Bakersfield
Norco is possibly one of the REDDEST settlements in all of California, dwarfed only by some of the Bakersfield-burbs (like Rosedale) or Canyon Lake (which is also in AD-63). It's the 9th-reddest district in the entire state (out of 80).
This makes sense. It is a part of California that has a lot of down-ballot red history, so it makes sense it would be less elastic and prone to big swings. It's literally at the core of the new Kim/Calvert district used as a GOP vote sink in the CA gerrymander plan.
BREAKING: Democrat Catelin Drey has pulled off a victory in a special election for the Iowa Senate, flipping a Republican-held seat and breaking the GOP's supermajority in the chamber for the first time in three years. www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/p...
Look at @the-downballot.com's special election tracker, and all the post-inaugurations races where the Dem overperofrmance was <8%, or the GOP over-performed. Most were states with lots of ancestral Republicans in New England / Mid Atlantic (NH, MA, DE, CT), and most of the rest were in Alabama.
Any overperformance in the south is pretty impressive, considering that region is typically less elastic and has more dampened swings + downballot reversion to ancestral GOP patterns (vs somewhere like Iowa, Oklahoma or Pennsylvania which can have WILD Dem over-performances).
NEW RESULT: Democrats have flipped a state Senate in Iowa. This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%. This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
He lost by just 3.6% last year, while Kamala lost it by 11.2%. The effect where the Dem incumbent polls well early then loses the election ALSO applies the other way around sometimes. In 2018, the Nevada Senate race and TONS of house races in California were good examples of this.
In his defense, the new TX-18 is mostly made up of the old TX-09.
HUGE FLIP: Democrat Catelin Drey wins deep-red state Senate seat in Iowa, breaking the GOP's supermajority. Drey won by 11 points in a district Donald Trump carried by 11 points last year. It's another massive overperformance. The Iowa GOP should be very worried for the midterms. Our full writeup:
🚨 MAJOR BREAKING Democrat Catelin Drey FLIPS Iowa SD-1 — a district Trump won by 11.5 points in 2024 — defeating Republican Christopher Prosch in a landslide special election and breaking the GOP supermajority.
Walz says Harris "would have been a fantastic president... we wouldn't wake up every day to a bunch of shit on TV. We would wake up to an adult w/ compassion & dignity doing the work, not a manchild crying about whatever is wrong with him. May his fat ankles find something today. Petty as hell."
A Utah judge ruled today that the state must redraw its congressional map to abide by redistricting rules voters had approved: the ruling, if it stands, could put a GOP seat in play next year. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
NEW: Utah judge orders legislature to redraw GOP's 4-0 congressional map in time for 2026 elections. Republicans are hoping to appeal and at least slow things down to run out the clock for this next election.
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Lol the endorsement for the oyster guy was from Bernie Sanders.
Democrats can't really do anything about "potential candidates" unless you want them to start banning people from even running in the primary.
Why does everyone act like he's ordained by the party? This is just one guy who has announced he is running. No one notable has even endorsed him yet. In fact, endorsements have gone to someone else (an oyster farmer from rural Maine).
Breaking: Kilmar Abrego García has just been detained by ICE after arriving at the agency's Baltimore field office as part of a required check-in, according to his attorney. "The only reason to take him into detention was to punish him."
They gaslit you all throughout the election.
Oh worse, all those people who whined "if you need to bring up Hitler, you've already lost the debate" NO MFKERS, NOT WHEN WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT IS LITERALLY HITLER!!!
The Diary of Anne Frank is among the hundreds of books banned in Florida this year. When I was in school, it was required reading. (Guardian)
I checked out this sicko's feed. No posts, just shitposting replies about how much they enjoy liberals feeling angry or sad. They're either a bot, or just a seriously disturbed person who gets off on the idea of ordinary people feeling sorrow.
They also ILLEGALLY revoked the legal status of a ton of immigrants who WERE here legally, thus making them "subject to deportation."
They also deported a US CITIZEN who was a CHILD with BONE CANCER.
Kilmar Abrego Garcia literally had a court order saying "DO NOT DEPORT." Also, there were the cases where justices said "STOP RANDOMLY DEPORTING PEOPLE TO SUDAN OR TO GULAGS IN EL SALVADOR" and Trump just ignored those and sent the flights anyways. Don't get me started on the illegal FL gulag.
Following Gov. Gavin Newsom’s lead in California to counter Texas Republicans’ gerrymandering, Gov. Wes Moore confirmed he’s considering retaliating by redrawing Maryland’s maps—potentially eliminating the state’s lone Republican seat. x.com/atrupar/stat...
I agree its not nearly enough. But I also realize that Democrats' options are EXTREMELY limited because right now they have nearly ZERO power in the federal government: - No presidency - No senate - No house - No SCOTUS - Anyone remotely anti-Trump getting purged from the government
J) That entire Van Hollen w/ Kilmar Armando Ábrego García situation K) A bunch of states are trying to pass laws to fill some of the gaps now that FEDERAL enforcement of climate has been completely stopped
G) Recruiting candidates to oppose anyone and EVERYONE aligned with MAGA in the 2026 midterms. H) The entire California anti-Texas-gerrymandering retribution plan, which several other states (IL, MD, NY) may follow suit in I) Amplifying the stories of their constituents who have been hurt.
F) Organizing lawsuits UP AND DOWN THE COUNTRY to counteract Trump's maneuvers, esp. the ones where a state AG is suing. Even if most of them fail, a SMALL number of them succeeding is still a big deal, and it is a LOT of work (& $$$) to create that many lawsuits.
D) They are talking about every horrid detail in the big-bullshit-bill as OFTEN as they can at every town hall, presser, etc. to spread the word about all of the HARM it does to ordinary Americans. E) Stuff like Sanders' anti-oligarchy tour with AOC
C) Every time an outrageous overstep happens where Trump illegally sends goons into peaceful places for no reason other than to sow terror, there ARE Democrats there who are screaming about it and trying to raise awareness and call out what is happening.
B) The whole Epstein situation, where the Dems have basically forced the speaker to place the House into a recess because if they don't then Dems will force them to vote vote on releasing Epstein files.
A) Using thousands of small maneuvers in congress to clog up the house/senate to slow them down (moreo than the GOP did to Dems during Obama/Biden). This won't really STOP anything, but it makes it so EVERYTHING the GOP does takes longer, so they'll have time to do less OVERALL (e.g. nominations)
Except the deportations are literally being done AGAINST rulings of judges.
It's not a matter of resonation. It's a matter of the media LITERALLY doesn't let anyone know about SO MANY things Democrats do EVERY DAY around the country.
They're not silent. They just have the ENTIRE MEDIA out to get them by not reporting ANYTHING they do 99.99% of the time, except for the stuff that makes them look bad. Democrats ARE doing stuff every day.
They can both be dumbest, along with the other 217 members of the house GOP and 53 GOP senators and 6 SCOTUS justices and...
They are. The media isn't letting anyone hear about it, like with 99.9% of the things Democrats do.
They *are* out there doing this. bsky.app/profile/left...
To whoever screamed “LOOK! IT’S SENATOR WHAT’S HER FACE!” at the State Fair, I hope you have an incredible day 😂
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SEN. @ossoff.senate.gov on fascism in 🇺🇸 : “There is not safety in keeping your head down… People who oppose public policy decisions but are too afraid of retribution from their government to speak their mind should send a chill down all of our spines.”
Nah, they can make it outright blue without violating the VRA. Remember, only districts 4/5/7 qualify as VRA districts, and 4 has TONS of nonwhite population it can shed while still qualifying as such. Just slice up the red district between the 2/3/5/7, and swap some territory between 4/5
MD can easily squeeze one more. IL can get 1-2 more, but with some difficulty
Just brilliant content from @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social. Honing in on the human element of everyday struggles with affordability.
Absolutely!!!
I deeply resent having to defend John Bolton but “the president sends his goons on a fishing expedition to raid anyone who criticizes him” is in fact very alarming
Several things are true: A) Both Dems and GOP do it B) GOP do it a LOT more often & severely than Dems do it C) GOP could go even FURTHER w/o the VRA D) Dems have passed laws in some states to restrict it, and tried to do so nationally E) There are few states left where Dems COULD gerrymander more
- IL & MD (which should gerrymander) - NJ & WA (messy situations) - CO (legal safeguards) - NY (Hochul needs to get around Cuomo's judges) It is unrealistic to hope for more than IL/MD/NY.
There's not that many other states where Democrats CAN gerrymander more than they already have. If you exclude states with divided government, or that are already maxxed-out, you are left with:
The politicians in CA have done their job on this front, now it's up to the PEOPLE to see things through.
IF the CA Dems wen't über-nuclear and went 52-0, they would need to dilute a ton of majority-latino, majority-black, and majority-asian districts.
Texas State Rep Ann Johnson has had enough!
For example: - In modern times, NY, NJ and MD haven't been gerrymandering to screw over their nonwhite populations, so it hasn't mattered there. - UT, OK, IN are gerrymandered as heck, but don't have enough nonwhite folks for the VRA to come into play. - Lots of other states are too-small
It applies nationwide, but is usually only applies in the South because Southern states are the ones who both have high-nonwhite populations AND regularly draw racist maps to discriminate against them. Rest of the country either is run by less-racist map drawers, or doesn't have enough nonwhites.
Here's an example that adds SIX blue seats (instead of 5), and makes ALL the blue seats (existing, vulnerable, and new) non-competitive. However, this violates the VRA in more ways than I can count (only 10 districts are majority-Latino, and NONE are majority-black or majority-asian).
You can slice it up so those 4 get scattered and mixed with bay area + LA seats, but doing so means you will have to do at least one of the following: - Make existing blue seats vulnerable - NOT shore up already vulnerable blue seats - Egregious VRA violations
Going after the other four means doing AT LEAST one of the following: - Endangering more safe blue seats - Not shoring up the competitive D-held seats - EGREGIOUS VRA violations (won't matter next year, but still does right now)
BREAKING: Gov. Gavin Newsom just signed the California legislative package advancing its redistricting plan.