The US PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, a slight slowdown from the 0.3% in June, and in line with market forecasts.
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The US PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, a slight slowdown from the 0.3% in June, and in line with market forecasts.
US personal spending moved up 0.5% month-over-month to $20.802 trillion in July, a slight increase from the 0.4% increase recorded in June, and the biggest rise in four months.
As part of the trade deal between the European Union and the United States, the EU has committed to increasing US liquefied gas, oil, and nuclear energy products to an ambitious $750 billion over the next three years.
India has joined Brazil in receiving the highest tariff rate on its exports to the United States, with levies now at 50%. Zooming in on current trade, the US sold almost $46 billion less in goods to India last year. Interestingly, however, on the services side, the trade was nearly equal.
The US trade deficit in goods widened by $18.7 billion month-over-month to $103.6 billion in July, the largest gap in four months.
GDP north of the border declined during the most recent quarter, with Canada's economy contracting by 0.4% in Q2, following a 0.5% gain in Q1.
In 2025 alone, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft are forecast to spend upwards of $400 billion in capital expenditures, primarily on building out AI data centers to support the booming technology.
With $800 'de minimis' exemption scrapped, large companies like Amazon could ultimately benefit if small businesses operating on platforms like Etsy and eBay decide to stop shipping to the US.
China's major state-owned banks say that deflation and economic volatility mean net interest margins will face increased pressure for the remainder of the year. All five of the country's top banks reported a decline in net interest rate margins for the past six months.
The world's most populous country, India, reported economic growth of 7.8% during the second quarter of the year, marking the fastest pace in over a year. The question now: Will the 50% tariffs severely dampen the acceleration?
A new analysis from the Bank of America Institute indicates that more Americans are staying in their jobs rather than quitting. While the job change rate is up slightly this year, it remains far below the level seen during the so-called "Great Resignation."
Not only has job hopping slowed, but so has the pay bump workers tend to receive when switching jobs. According to the Bank of America Institute, the median raise for people who switch employers was 7% in July, a drop from 20% in 2022.
The labor market continues to cool, with employment gains averaging 35,000 jobs per month over the last three months. In contrast, employment gains averaged 123,000 during the same period last year.
Authorities in China continue to take action to prop up the economy, with major hubs, such as Beijing, announcing new minimum wage increases to boost stagnating salaries and stimulate consumer spending.
Amid a thinning of undocumented farm labor, Raymond Robertson, a labor economist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government, who has advised U.S. agencies on trade and labor policy, predicts produce prices could spike as much as 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts begin.
During the government's 2024 fiscal year, nearly 1.4 billion packages claimed the $800 'de minimis' exemption, or around 3.7 million a day.
No one's safe... Even Canadian goods not covered by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) have been slapped with 35% levies.
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New single-family home sales in the US fell by 0.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 652K in July, pulling back the 4.1% increase recorded during the prior period.
Business sentiment in Europe's biggest economy rose this month, with the ifo Business Climate Index in Germany increasing to 89, up from 88.6, the highest level recorded since May 2024, and above forecasts of 88.6.
US building permits fell by 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.362 million in June, an upward revision from preliminary estimates of 1.354 million. Even with the upward amendment, the figure remains at the lowest level since June 2020.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index crept down to -0.19 in July from a revised -0.18 in June. July represents the fourth consecutive month that US economic activity remained below its historical trend.
Durable goods in the United States fell by 2.8% month-over-month to $302.8 billion in July. The period extended the drop recorded in June, but it wasn't as severe as the market's forecasts of a 4% decline.
US home prices experienced their slowest price rise in two years, with the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index increasing by 2.1% year-over-year in June, decelerating from the 2.8% move recorded in May.
Consumer morale in Germany fell to its lowest level since April, with the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropping to -23.6 heading into September. In particular, the income outlook dropped sharply to 4.1, down from 15.2 in August.
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US housing starts increased 5.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.428 million in July, the most in five months, and a surprise from the market forecasts of a drop to 1.29 million.
Near-record production coupled with elevated storage levels is suppressing natural gas prices close to their lowest level since November 2024.
The Producer Price Index for July showed that wholesale inflation rose 0.9% month-over-month, compared to forecasts of a more modest 0.2% increase. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the Core PPI was 0.6%, the highest since March 2022.
The three-month moving average of job additions was 232,000 in January. Last month, that figure had slowed all the way down to just 35,000.
The dramatic downward revision of job additions in May and June (announced earlier this month), coupled with the July jobs report, helped buoy market forecasts of a rate cut in September. And then... A surprise surge of the Producer Price Index muddled the likelihood.
While industrial output in China was up 5.7% year-over-year in July, it was a sharp deceleration from the 6.8% recording in June, and the slowest level of growth since November 2024.
During the first seven months of 2025, China's property investment slipped a steep 12% year-on-year to 535.8 billion yuan.
Compared to one year before, Canadian travel to the United States by air was down 25.8% in July, while travel by car was down even further, slipping 36.9% during the period. While tariff rhetoric hasn't helped, some of the drop can likely be attributed to an unfavorable exchange rate.
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In a move that would make Beijing proud, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the government wants an equity stake in Intel in exchange for cash grants approved under the Biden administration. "It's not governance, we are just converting what was a grant under Biden into equity..."
US Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said banks and regulators need to embrace the benefits that technologies such as AI and crypto bring or "risk the banking system becoming less relevant to consumers, businesses and the overall economy." "Change is coming."
S&P Global has affirmed the US's "AA+" credit rating, stating that additional revenue from higher tariffs will make up for the shortfalls brought on by tax cuts and increased spending.
A recently concluded poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos found that more than 7 out of 10 Americans fear that AI will cause permanent job loss. Are you worried?
A recent survey by LendingTree found that nearly 1 out of 3 U.S. businesses are likely to hike prices by the end of the year in light of persistent rising costs and inflationary pressure.
Amid tariff hikes, the EU's exports to the United States fell by more than 10% year-over-year in June. Now we wait to see what the bump in levies to 15% on most EU exports will do.
Over the past four years, on average, Americans have been earning 1.2 percentage points below the rise in the cost of living. Put another way, the typical worker's pay increases in recent years have yet to catch up to the economy's higher prices.
According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stablecoins will support the market for US Treasuries, and the government will sell more short-term debt to meet the higher demand. Tether (USDT), the most widely used stablecoin, purchases huge quantities of Treasury bills for its reserves.
For the first time, China is considering allowing the usage of yuan-backed stablecoins to help support the broader adoption of its currency. Later this month, the State Council will assess, and potentially approve, a roadmap that could include a plan to catch up to the US in the stablecoin space.
To reduce reliance on the US and potentially create "a new order of global commerce," China is rapidly pivoting toward the Global South, according to a new report. China already exports roughly $1.6T to the developing world, more than 50% higher than to the US and Western Europe combined.
In July, Japan's exports dropped for the third straight month, suppressed by slowing trade with its biggest export market, the United States. Exports fell 2.6% year on year, with those to the US specifically falling by over 10%.
While broadly speaking, American wages haven't kept up with inflation since the outset of the pandemic, not all industries have fared the same. For example, accommodations and food services have seen their wages climb nearly 5% after accounting for inflation.
In July, 13.4% of unemployed Americans were new to the labor force, the highest percentage recorded since 1988.
Annual inflation across the pond crept higher last month, jumping to 3.8% in July, the highest recorded since January 2024.
Following a four-month low in the previous period, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US increased to 6.68% in the week ending August 15. At the same time, total mortgage application volume lowered by 1.4% from the previous week.
Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.2%, with Washington D.C. at the high end (6%), and South Dakota at the other extreme, with an unemployment rate of just 1.9%.
Since April, the United States has collected $100 billion in tariff revenue, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says it's on track to exceed expectations.
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While it came in below estimates of 2.8%, CPI remained at a still elevated 2.7% for the second straight month in July, potentially putting a wrench in plans to trim interest rates.
While household debt in the United States was a relatively high 72.9% of GDP in 2023 (higher than several other developed nations), it pales in comparison to some countries, like Canada (102%), Australia (110%), and Switzerland (126%).
The percentage of domestic primary energy production that the US exports has grown in recent decades, with 30% leaving our borders last year.
The United States still dominates global nuclear energy capacity, with a net capacity of 97 gigawatts, or more than 50% higher than the No. 2 country in the world, France.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany fell for the first time in four months to 34.7 in August, down from 52.7 in July, and below forecasts of 40. However, it is important to point out that July was the highest recording on the index since 2022.
In an attempt to get ahead of a potential requirement for Google to sell its web browser, AI startup Perplexity made a formal offer to buy Chrome for $34.5 billion. You can just do things.
McKinsey and Pitchbook say quantum computing startups collectively raised roughly $2 billion in funding last year, and companies in the space brought in less than $750 million in revenue. However, by 2035, they estimate that quantum-focused firms could generate $100 billion in revenue.
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U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell by 10bps to 6.67% in the week ending August 8, slipping to their lowest level in four months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. At the same time, total mortgage application volume surged 10.9% from the previous week, the highest jump in two months.
New yuan bank loans in China dropped by CNY 50 billion in July, the first monthly drop recorded since 2005, and well below expectations of CNY 300 billion growth.
The medical field dominates other industries in terms of the share of revenue from industrial and service robots worldwide, with 27% of the total pie, according to Statista.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is calling on the Fed to drop interest rates by a half-point at next month's meeting, saying rates "should probably be 150,175 basis points lower." How to juice the market 101.
Before the pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office projected the national debt wouldn't cross the $37 trillion mark until after fiscal year 2030. Well, I'm here to tell you we just hit that mark, years sooner than expected.
The U.S. Department of Energy says it has selected an initial group of 11 companies that will participate in a pilot program to develop high-tech test nuclear reactors. The program has an ambitious goal to get at least three reactors online in less than 12 months.
In another last-minute save, the U.S. and China have extended a tariff truce for another 90 days, avoiding triple-digit duties on imports. Should we get our Christmas shopping done early this year, just in case?
US small business sentiment rose to a five-month high last month, with the National Federation of Independent Business optimism index climbing 1.7 points to 100.3 in July. Notably, a net 36% of owners expected better business conditions, a 14-percentage point increase from one month earlier.
Factories in China are cutting shifts and workers' pay amid challenging U.S. tariffs. Alicia Garcia-Herrero at Natixis, says statistics won't reveal the true impact of the trade war since the workers won't "become unemployed, but they will get unpaid leave of absence or work fewer hours."
The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates that the United States will lose over $12 billion in international tourist spending this year. In June, international visits to Las Vegas were down 13% compared to the same month last year.
Bankrate says Americans with a credit score of 620 or less, on average, pay an additional $3,400 in interest and premiums each year. Over three decades, Bankrate says this "subprime tax" can cost these Americans over $100,000.
Roughly one-third of U.S. adults said their family finances have deteriorated in the last year, according to a newly released survey from Yahoo Finance and Marist Poll. Gen X had the highest rate, with 40% reporting that their family finances have worsened.
The Trump administration has nearly a dozen candidates on the docket as potential replacements for Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May, including Rick Rieder, CIO for global fixed income at BlackRock, and David Zervos, Chief Marketing Strategist at Jefferies LLC.
Despite a notable bump in tariff revenue, the US budget deficit expanded by nearly 20% in July to $291 billion. July's deficit was up 19%, or $47 billion, from the same month one year prior.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data shows that wage growth for the lowest-paid quartile of workers slowed more than any other group. People making less than $806 per week saw their wage growth slow to an annual rate of 3.7% in June, down from the 7.5% peak recorded in late 2022.
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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' jobs data revisions, 258,000 fewer jobs were added to the US economy in May and June compared to previous estimates. In other words, the labor market is looking even weaker. More support for rate cuts?
The US services sector slowed to a near standstill last month, with the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly slipping to 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June, and below forecasts of an increase to 51.5.
The trade deficit fell to $60.2B in June, the narrowest since Sept. 2023. Imports fell 3.7% to $337.5B, the lowest since March 2024, led by pharmaceutical preparations, passenger cars, crude oil, and nuclear fuel materials. Though it narrowed slightly, the largest trade deficit was with Mexico.
89% of a group of 100 experts surveyed by Reuters recently said that they are "slightly" or "very" concerned about the quality of official US economic data following government cutbacks. To be fair, it's probably always been a bit of a concern.
