Why is youth unemployment so high in Canada? Here's our feature (and a gift link):
Economics Editor at The Globe and Mail
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Why is youth unemployment so high in Canada? Here's our feature (and a gift link):
Really enjoyed this!
No other way to slice it: this is incredibly fucked up.
This is one of the biggest shifts in the Canadian housing market, and frankly a rare bright spot: We're building a lot of rental units, even as the economics prove challenging for other housing types.
This lede. 😂 "Two Republicans named Kevin are vying to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve."
"Finally, nothing is written in stone in Trump World. There are no binding accords, negotiated over years by experts, spelling out legal obligations in minute detail. ... International trade law is being rewritten with sketches on the back of a wet cocktail napkin."
👀 From Rob Carrick's (sorta) last column: "A guy once walked up to me while I was showering at the gym to ask if I thought the government would raise the contribution limit for tax-free savings accounts that year."
💀 "Canada’s national housing agency says it is no longer possible to build enough homes to bring housing affordability back to 2004 levels and it will starting using 2019 as a more realistic benchmark." www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
Meanwhile, imports from New Zealand and Australia have jumped ~30 per cent, year over year. France and Italy have risen by 13.6 per cent and 7.6 per cent. Importers are filling the US-sized hole in supply.
In April, Canadian imports of U.S. wine plummeted 94 per cent (!) from the monthly average last year, owing to widespread bans. Gift link: www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/d6b0095...
👀
Tony Keller on the One Big Beautiful Bill: "It’s reverse Robin Hood economics. It’s stealing from the poor and the future, to give to the wealthy and the present."
Trump does not plan to produce t-shirts or socks in the United States
My story on Spier & Mackay (a favourite of @dieworkwear.bsky.social), which has faced US tariffs as high as 170% this month.
Outstanding pick.
This is one of the worst job markets for university/college grads in decades. “Youth have borne the brunt of Canada’s weaker labour market,” says one economist. www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
Thanks, Armine!
"Across Ontario, 25 per cent of properties bought in 2022 and sold in 2024 suffered a loss in value. The median loss was $45,000, while in the Toronto-region it was a little higher at $56,000."
"The Globe and Mail asked the Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats whether they’d like to see their policies bring down home prices. None of them answered the question."
“When I went to the booking site of Italian train operator Trenitalia … I counted 54 departures on Saturday alone from Rome to Milan – the same distance as Toronto to Montreal.”
LINKEDIN POST: What I learned about personal growth from rising bond yields. ...more
⬇️ Canadian car travel to the U.S. fell 32% in March, year over year. International arrivals at major U.S. airports are tanking. Delta Air Lines is scrapping is financial guidance. The travel industry is a mess.
Great yarn here. “We didn’t write the paper as an encouragement for any country, in particular the U.S., to start the trade war. That was never intended.”
See you tomorrow then!
When are you back at work? Stuff is happening in markets.
“Right now, UAW and us, we’re not friends. The gloves are off as far as I’m concerned.”
Confused about tariffs? We all are. Here's a gift link to an explainer from @markrendell.bsky.social. We update this piece any time tariff rules change (so, frequently).
The shutdowns are about to start.
Ten charts that explain the economic stakes in this federal election
👀
New vehicle prices are set to jump by thousands of dollars because of incoming tariffs. “Not a lot of households are going to be able to finance new vehicles at current interest rates and these elevated price points potentially.” (via @markrendell.bsky.social)
What lawyers are telling Canadians who work in the United States: Don’t leave the country, because you may not be allowed back in.
The trade war has come for one of Canada's biggest exports: hockey. Specifically, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on rink chairs, steel-wire structures that support rebar and refrigeration pipes in the concrete floors of rinks.
On Canada's immigration surge: "In fact, rising immigration did not alleviate economy-wide labour shortages. The induced expansion in labour demand matched – and very probably exceeded – the initial increase in labour supply." cdhowe.org/publication/...
Turns out a story I contributed to was among a list nominated for a National Newspaper Award (NNA) called the "Geoffrey Stevens Award for Sustained News Coverage." www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
Our interview with Tiff Macklem: “I will admit I find myself checking the news cycle more frequently than usual.” (via @markrendell.bsky.social)
Look ma, no data! On Trump’s digital book-burning: wapo.st/3XF0wqH
The federal government has failed to collect almost 40 per cent of the fines levied on employers for violating the rules of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, a Globe and Mail analysis has found. www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
A large portion of companies fined for breaking rules in the Temporary Foreign Worker Program never pay up. Many of these companies have serious infractions, from worker abuse to wage theft.
📉 Financial markets with less than an hour to close: S&P 500 *down* 3.1% Nasdaq *down* 4.5% S&P/TSX *down* 1.8% S&P 500 heading for worst day since fall of 2022.
“Canada is presented as this great opportunity, where everything is going to be easier, but it’s not. It’s been very difficult.” Fantastic piece by Sarah Efron and Yader Guzman www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
Confused about Donald Trump's latest tariff flip-flop? I wrote an explainer on the USMCA and what's eligible (or not) for the one-month tariff reprieve. #cdnecon #cdnpoli www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
I miss the good old days of *CANADIAN POT STOCKS PLUNGE AGAIN
Comments from Howard Lutnick, the secretary of Commerce, and Elon Musk have renewed concerns that the Trump administration could interfere with federal economic statistics. with @colbylsmith.bsky.social #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/b...
Might start smoking again.
🙃
The auto industry is highly exposed to a trade war. And yet, at a Ford assembly plant in Michigan today, only three out of 20 workers (informally polled by @jasonkirby.bsky.social) knew tariffs had gone into effect.
"I'm a loonie. Let me tell you about the tough few months I’ve had." Had fun making this explainer with @mingwong.bsky.social and @apricotjoy.bsky.social www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
Quick look at stocks since Trump's inauguration. (The U.S. is the lowest line.)
Fair points! Thanks for taking the time to reply.
The piece is based on this chart, showing the global economic policy uncertainty index has surpassed the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Businesses hate uncertainty. And by one measure, uncertainty has never been greater as President Trump lobs tariff threats on a daily basis.
And this, on Canadian aluminum exports shifting to Europe, and the U.S. tapping other overseas markets for aluminum: "You will literally see ships passing each other that have the exact same products coming from Europe and coming from Canada, and it really makes very little sense."
The head of Alcoa is the rare American CEO who speaks out against tariffs: "This is bad for the aluminum industry in the U.S. It's bad for American workers. We're advocating with the administration to, at a minimum, get a Canadian exemption ..."
💀 “He’s an other-direction carpet bagger, a golf world hanger-on and a Mar-a-Lago regular. When you see Gretzky up close now, the first word that leaps to mind is ‘louche.’”
Years before he made it big with “Nathan For You,” Nathan Fielder made a movie, “Love and Cameras in America.” His directorial debut has never been released – so I set out to find it. www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/film/ar...
The death of data: Under Trump, key information is disappearing
Tentative signs, via @jasonkirby.bsky.social, that Canadians are curbing their stateside trips.
Despite Canada signing a number of free-trade agreements over the past decade, trade diversification is arguably getting worse. Around three-quarters of Canadian exporters sent their goods to a single country in 2023, the highest share since 2003.
Goods trade with the European Union is about 6-7% of the Canadian total – and that figure hasn't budged much over 15 years, despite a free trade pact. Even as Canada has unlocked more market access, diversifying trade is tough.
In tennis? (Kidding.) Unfortunately, it feels like Federer/Nadal/Djokovic are splitting the vote in this AI model.
Pretty good. (I’d sub out Jon Jones and put in Serena Williams.)
The timing on this text.
It's all a big misunderstanding, guys.
Consumer inflation expectations are formed, in large part, by what people see at gas pumps and in grocery aisles — exactly what’s getting more expensive in the near term. Good luck to central bankers.
Several tweets, starting with this one, on whether coffee imported from the U.S. is considered “made in America” and subject to tariffs. Perhaps not.
This is all very interesting. Thanks for taking the time to reply. Seems like this all hinges on the interpretation of processed/roasted in the States.
☕ Canada imported $2.3-billion of coffee in 2023. The U.S. is easily the largest source – and now we're hitting them with retaliatory tariffs on the product. Time to cozy up with Colombia.
This has brought Canadians together in interesting ways, including facing own internal trade barriers. They're not of huge economic import but they're a great annoyance and embarrassment (sovereign EU states have freer trade than Canadian provinces do) www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...
An outlier: William Oplinger, the CEO of Pittsburgh-based Alcoa, an aluminum producer. “If there were to be tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports to the U.S., this would represent a threat to U.S. industrial competitiveness,” he said on an investor call last week.
Tough to find an American CEO who, during Trump's second term, will speak ill of tariffs.
Bank of Canada cuts by 25bps, taking the policy interest rate to 3 per cent. Details here:
Five Amazon warehouses in Quebec were pushing to unionize— efforts that were stopped dead in their tracks by the retail giant’s decision to leave the province.
The U.S. runs a big surplus -- yes, a surplus! -- with Canada on services trade. @jasonkirby.bsky.social unpacks the numbers.
A sports column that’s about something much bigger: “It would amaze me to hear that any of our leaders today, in any industry, of any political persuasion, read fiction.”
Great read from @markrendell.bsky.social on Trump's (misguided) obsession with trade deficits, which once again is driving his approach to economic policymaking.
Does the US have a trade deficit with Canada? Yes — but only because of the massive amount of energy it buys to fuel its powerful economy of 340m people. Canada has about 42m. Here are the trade flows on a per-capita basis — and they tell a different story.
It's the most wonderful time of the year – the annual Chartapalooza, as curated by @jasonkirby.bsky.social. Truly once of the great franchises in Canadian journalism.
In December, Canada's employment rate – the share of the age-15-plus population who are employed – rose for the first time since *squints* January, 2023.
My colleague @jasonkirby.bsky.social crunched the numbers on federal EV rebates, finding that Tesla’s popularity in Canada is waning.
Edmonton’s Kluane Mountaineering is a rarity in Canadian apparel: its parkas are made to order, by a grand total of three people. In business for more than 50 years, Kluane is starting to get some long-overdue recognition.
Mark Carney: the man who will never stop playing footsie. www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
The Labour Force Survey produces estimates, but even then, their stats on employment are certainly more reliable than on population. LFS is not intended as a gauge of population.
A clear deterioration in the labour market. There are 2.8 unemployed people for every job vacancy – the most since 2017, not including the early months of the pandemic.
Alternatively: monetary policy divergence, sluggish Canadian growth, threat of trade war, U.S. dollar crushing everyone, etc.
I'm thrilled to share that @nojoudalmallees.bsky.social will be joining The Globe's mighty economics team, covering fiscal and economic policy from Ottawa. I wish she had started yesterday! 😅
Scotiabank's Derek Holt in a morning note: "In my opinion, she is a huge loss to this government. Her loss solves nothing by way of its root problem – the one single biggest root problem in the party’s saleability to the electorate."
We are starting to see the effects of new immigration policies. "The number of non-permanent residents with a study permit on October 1 (1,010,404) was 4.3% lower than on July 1 (1,055,725). This is notable, as the third quarter marks the start of the school year ..."
A clever nod from Statscan, emphasis mine: "On a monthly basis, prices for traveller accommodation in Ontario were up 11.0%, the **swiftest** monthly increase ever recorded for the month of November, coinciding with a series of high-profile concerts."
Not that anyone cares, but the annual inflation rate was 1.9% in November – the fourth consecutive month at or below the Bank of Canada's 2-per-cent target. You can follow along with our live blog for coverage.
Where’s Waldo, except it’s finding the word “deficit”.
"I hate to be the bearer of good news, but there is no fiscal crisis. Not yet." www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...
This is the most nuanced, thoughtful interview I've heard from Macklem, at a time when #cdnecon and monetary policy, more generally, desperately need more nuanced, thoughtful ideas. A+ comms.
The federal government has blown through one of its self-imposed fiscal guardrails, posting a $61.9-billion deficit for 2023-24, versus a pledge to keep the shortfall at $40.1-billion or less. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
