Director of the Europe, Russia, Eurasia Program at CSIS. Podcasts EuroFile and Russian Roulette. Fmr State Department official. DC sports, Tottenham
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NEW: Mirna Galic has joined @japan.csis.org as deputy director and senior fellow. With two decades of government and think tank experience, her expertise will deepen CSIS research on Japanese security policy and U.S. alliances in Asia. Full announcement: www.csis.org/news/mirna-g...
Exceptional piece by the exceptional @sylviekauffmann.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/8a14...
Our analysis shows that fewer people are travelling to America this year. Three charts show the trends
That surely means that new sanctions are coming fast, right?
Totally normal behavior from an ally. apnews.com/article/denm...
How generous
This evening, @korea.csis.org hosted His Excellency Lee Jae Myung, President of the Republic of Korea, for an address on foreign policy and U.S.-Korea relations following his White House meeting with President Donald J. Trump. Read his remarks here: www.csis.org/analysis/sta...
Timely new report by my @erep.csis.org colleague Tina Dolbaia & @utknoxville.bsky.social Professor Vasabjit Banerjee: An in-depth look at Russia–India ties—from Cold War roots to defense & energy today—and their implications for U.S. strategy 👉 www.csis.org/analysis/gun...
India’s ties to Russia differ from their Soviet-era partnership, especially as New Delhi deepens links with Washington. Yet continued dependence in the defense sector and newfound reliance on Russian oil keep India’s stance toward Russia constrained, notes @erep.csis.org www.csis.org/analysis/gun...
Tech nuking transatlantic relations is something people should have on their bingo card.
Interesting development in Germany, where the developer of a large offshore wind farm has abandoned its plans to use wind turbines from China in favour of a European solution. The project was seen as a litmus test for the new German government's approach to China. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Have burning questions about the #EU, #NATO, or what’s going on in European politics? ✍️ We want to hear from YOU on #Eurofile! 📤 Send your Questions to erep@csis.org or reply below 🎙️ Hosts @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @donatienneruy.bsky.social are ready
Link here www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
A pleasure to talk about peace talks with the great @ktumulty.bsky.social “It reminds me of when I go to the playground w/ my kids and I spin them around on a merry-go-round. There’s a lot of movement. You get a little sick. It’s dizzying. And then you end up at exactly the same place you started.”
"In the week before the takeover, 39% of all arrests in D.C. were for violent crimes. Since the takeover, that number has fallen to 36% of all arrests, MPD data says." www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/p...
"The developers behind the project had said it was on track to produce enough electricity for more than 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut by next spring."
John Bolton predicted a ‘retribution Presidency.’ On Friday it came for him. My new column: www.newyorker.com/news/letter-...
Here is a fun scenario: Would a militarily stronger, more independent Europe push to renegotiate the crappy EU-US trade deal? Maybe some sectoral tweaks if transatlantic ties warm — but overall, a Europe that fires up a trade war on the US seems unlikely. 1/
On August 25, @korea.csis.org welcomes South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to deliver an address at CSIS on foreign policy and United States-Korea relations, his first foreign policy address abroad. Watch the address here: www.csis.org/events/state...
@erep.csis.org experts @maxbergmann.bsky.social and @msnegovaya.bsky.social discuss recent efforts to negotiate a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, analyzing the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska and the meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders at the White House. www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...
Many former Trump advisers who became critics after what they saw in his first term have been unwilling to be quoted on the record in the second term because they are afraid of retaliation. Bolton has been one of the few who has consistently spoken out anyway.
On the left: Nate Cavanagh, a 28-year-old DOGE staffer and college dropout. On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar. This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media. Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
"I would say there is some sort of big dick energy moment. You don’t need a scary name for a missile that can fly 3,000 kilometers," www.politico.eu/article/flam...
“Federal agents busted into Bolton’s house in Bethesda, Md., at 7 a.m. in an investigation ordered by FBI Director Kash Patel, a Trump administration official told The Post.” nypost.com/2025/08/22/u...
One of the most remarkable and impactful transformations of all human technology and civilization in history is happening right now!
New Russian Roulette episode! 🎙️ @maxbergmann.bsky.social and I break down the latest Russia-Ukraine peace talks—from Trump-Putin in Alaska to Trump-Zelenskyy with European leaders—and what it all means. www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...
Russian military spending is almost 50% (!) of budget revenues in the first half of 2025. This is the result of low revenues and the ever increasing costs of the war. Revenues in H1 were 17.6 trillion RUB, estimated military spending 8.5 trillion. budget.jakluge.de?view=0&id=52...
Also interesting how the Commission formulates this one: "What does the EU-US deal mean for European digital regulation (DMA, DSA)? Nothing. The Joint Statement does not include any commitment on EU digital regulations."
The best outcome for Putin is a European force and an ill defined US backstop. US won't go to war with RF if those troops are attacked. Therefore, Putin has the flexibility to test the force and he will do it early to unsettle Europeans and prevent reinforcement. He will also do it on Trump's watch
Since President Donald Trump announced his takeover of the DC police force last week, restaurant reservations have dropped in the city by as much as 31% (YOY) for a single day, as reported by The Washington Post. (1/2) 👇
Putin would have the opportunity to attack NATO forces without actually invading NATO territory and triggering Article 5 (ie war with America). Perhaps if Europe was ready for war it could deter a Russian attack… but Europe very much isn’t ready for war. Seems like a very bad idea until then. 🤷♂️
If somehow Putin said yes, there is no way the US will act as a “backstop” and go to war with Russia should it fire at those forces. So if this were to somehow go forward… 2/
I hate to be cynical. But I just don’t get all the energy around a European deterrence force in Ukraine. For this to happen, Russia has to say OK. But Russia will never give the all clear to NATO troops in Ukraine. To Putin, that would mean Russia lost the war. 1/
Let’s see what “substantially increases” means in practice… it could be restricted to Ukraine purchases. Not a good look for a Union supposedly seeking to build its own defence industry… smells of the trade negotiators getting their hands on defence policy. Never good!
Unbelievable. “We are selling arms to Europeans, who are then selling them on to the Ukrainians, and President Trump is taking 10 per cent mark-up on the arms,” Mr Bessent told Fox News. “So maybe that 10 per cent will cover the cost of the air cover.” www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025...
“National guard truck crashing into a vehicle early this morning.” - Witnesses report: www.popville.com/2025/08/nati...
Signs of the Times: The Sandwich Man edition - Enjoy the scroll: www.popville.com/2025/08/sign...
Janan Ganesh in the FT -excellent as usual “Trump’s ambiguity is the worst of all worlds. He supports Europe enough to make it complacent but not enough to make it safe.”
No one wants to the tell emperor he has no clothes. Brilliant piece by Michael Kimmage in @foreignaffairs.com. "Pity the empire whose emperor wears no clothes yet whose visitors are required to rhapsodize about the brilliance and beauty of his hats and gowns." www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/perni...
Questions about European politics, defense, trade, the #EU or transatlantic relations? Reply below or email us — it may be featured on the show! 🚨 @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @donatienneruy.bsky.social will answer listener questions on upcoming episodes of the #Eurofile 📧 Let us know: erep@csis.org
Take a year off NATO!
very odd vibes at this White House meeting. Everyone seems to be having a good time but everyone also knows the mad uncle might say something really inappropriate during the groom's speech.
For all their values, European leaders are subordinate because their economies, militaries and politics are fragmented. For all his shamelessness, Trump is dominant because (however dismally) he speaks for one economy, one military, one political system. It’s that simple.
This.
WUSA-TV - DC restaurants saw a more than 25% drop in diners in the days following President Trump’s takeover of the city’s police department. www.wusa9.com/article/news...
This afternoon, I will welcome President Zelenskyy in Brussels. Together, we will participate in the Coalition of Willing VTC. At the request of President Zelenskyy, I will join the meeting with President Trump and other European leaders in the White House tomorrow.
The sustainability of Russia's war effort is relative... (Wall Street Journal, www.wsj.com/world/how-wi...).
Senior UK and European officials are very nervous that Trump is issuing rather vague US commitments to guaranteeing Ukraine’s security to try to browbeat Zelensky into giving in to Putin’s demands - including Ukrainian land still held by Ukraine 1/2
Ultimately by ending our aid to Ukraine we have no cards/leverage. In a year US aid will be pretty marginal (except for maybe intel) so why would Putin feel any pressure to deal with the US. He’s getting what he wants - the US out of the war. Europe will soon be the much more relevant actor in this
Trump’s Self-Own Summit with Putin My column: www.newyorker.com/news/letter-...
US army rolling the red carpet to murderer’s plane. I will never forget this image.
red carpets, smiles, and a warm hand
It’s almost as bad as Obama slightly bowing in Japan
Migration is a defining issue in European politics. This week, @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @donatienneruy.bsky.social are joined by @nytimes.com's David Leonhardt to explore why — and what it means for the political future of Europe and the US. 🔗 New episode: www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...
This is one of the really good news stories that journalism some how turns into a negative. Spain has so much solar prices at times go negative! Oh no, poor Spaniards w/ low energy prices and becoming the go-to place for data centers! www.ft.com/content/0894...
For Americans needing to work!
Yes delicious but I don’t want dessert! Just ice cold coffee!
If it weren’t August I’m not sure Stanley would survive this column.
Europeans have really missed out on the American invention of ice coffee
"The key question is whether President Trump will actually get tough with Putin," writes @maxbergmann.bsky.social in newly added analysis. "For this war to end, Russia has to believe it can no longer win, and that, unfortunately, is not currently the case."
DC Water walks us through the massive infrastructure--and smaller projects--that are breathing life back into the Anacostia River.
TOMORROW | Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom, joins CSIS for the last speech of his four-year tenure to reflect on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, NATO defense spending, and more. Watch: www.csis.org/events/uks-r...
The Trump administration has played down expectations of a peace deal at Friday’s summit between the US and Russian presidents, saying Ukraine would have to be party to any agreement. on.ft.com/4lm0xsD
Over the last two years, DC has experienced a 52% drop in violent crime and is now at a 30-year low. While any crime is one too many, every local leader in DC is committed to the work and progress of safer communities and preventing violence. (4/5)
Putting onus on the EU, UK and Ukraine to budge strategically for serious official dialogue with Moscow gets matters ass backwards. Europeans tried for years to find a deal with Russia through dialogue before 2022. To take a risk again they need to see a credible shift in Moscow
Provence’ing
I do bloody love this chart. Who'd have thought, 20 years ago, that solar would be ~10% of world electricity generation by 2024 - and over 20% in some countries, rising rapidly in others? Definitely not me. When I started this job I hoped to be part of a solution for maybe 1% of global electricity.
This is a lesson for all of you dads trying to play real sports after 35 — don’t do it!
For Putin Ukraine is more important than Russia‘s relationship with the US. For Trump the relationship with Russia is more important than Ukraine.
Thread… but key point in the kicker “Uncertainty is here to stay.”
1/ Trump's recent trade agreements with allies are revealing significant interpretation gaps. From Japan to South Korea to the EU, these deals lack formal documentation, creating ongoing disputes over fundamental terms.
NEW: @philuck.bsky.social cautions that U.S. tariffs on inputs to data centers, including a recent proposal to put a 100 percent tariff on semiconductors, threaten to undermine U.S. AI leadership and the high-value services it enables. Learn more: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
My take on the trade deal and explanation of what's in it:
Here we go
(Round 6) “New cable directs U.S. diplomats to garner support to repeal EU tech law” www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
The EU always needs to do more and whatever it does is never enough (yada, yada)… but this is a big deal and potentially transformative. Key is to leverage the EU money to make its impact much more than 150bn
SAFE: Where the EU27 stands on the Commission’s €150 billion defence loans
"Preliminary contacts for the purchase of the fifth-generation American stealth fighters have been suspended "indefinitely" and the government will seek European alternatives like the Eurofighter or the upcoming Future Combat Air System, the paper reported."
Thanks!
At the outset of Trump II, NATO analysts focused on defense and trade people focused on tariffs. @maxbergmann.bsky.social made the case that the US pledge to defend Europe would matter in any trade deal between the 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺. Turns out, he was right. www.politico.eu/article/us-t...
Put my old central bankers hat on when asked by Euractiv. Europe’s push to slash financial regulations is kind of a a strange sight to behold given that Europe, unlike the US and Switzerland, successfully avoided a banking crisis in March 2023. And bank profitability seems just fine!
"Whether or not Iran rebuilds its nuclear program is ultimately a political decision and will depend on three sets of factors: decisionmaking in Tehran, diplomacy with the United States, and Israel," writes @poni.csis.org. Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/dam...
My quick take for @csis.org's Asked & Answered: As the ceasefire deadline looms, the U.S. moves two nuclear subs closer to Russia — a clear signal of rising tensions. Is this a major escalation? And what are the odds of a deal by Friday? @csiserep www.youtube.com/shorts/95I_I...
The Trump Administration just issued a new order trying to kill solar and wind because they allegedly use too much land. But somehow this new fervor for "capacity density" won't apply to ethanol, which uses 100X as much land as solar per unit of energy. www.eenews.net/articles/ano...
It would have altered the terms of an engagement, setting in train a dynamic fundamentally different than the one that unfolded. As so often, the conception of one's own weakness and the adversaries strength is the core ingredient in the recipe for self-defeat.
Taps the sign. www.csis.org/analysis/tra...
The EU is definitely hard on itself. But the depictions of EU humiliation/division/flailing/feckless, etc - even if/when totally accurate - also serve a purpose in European politics in galvanizing future stronger action.
Actually, the EU’s (as in: the institutions, not the member states) reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was pretty strong. In the proper Orwellian sense, e.g. the new European Peace Facility was funnelled into financing military support for Ukraine.
Prescient or long-standing self-criticism? I was looking for quotes calling the EU-US trade deal a 'humilation', and then found this 2019 DGAP piece speaking of "Europe's Age of Humiliation", written pre-Covid and before the full Russian invasion of Ukraine. We can be hard on ourselves.
Our new book on Chinese economic coercion, its weaponization of trade & how countries can fight back through collective resilience is coming out in January 2026. By @csis.org @victordcha.bsky.social, Ellen Kim & @andysaulim.com More here: cup.columbia.edu/book/chinas-...
On the latest episode of Russian Roulette, @erep.csis.org expert @maxbergmann.bsky.social speaks with Michael Kimmage about the recent headlines connected to Russia and Ukraine and what they mean for the coming months. Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...
Tack!
Stockholm’ing
I believe just as deeply today in what I wrote earlier this year, linked below: Millions and even billions of Euros being thrown into additional defense (/defence) spending won’t bring expected benefits unless governments invest similarly in intelligence:
Thought-provoking piece by Bloomberg. With some points from my work. The EU has bought time placating Trump with the trade deal. But if this summer of humiliation is to not turn into a century, the question is what the bloc will do with the time it bought. 1/ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Probably the first time that idle shitposting has resulted in concrete changes to an adversary’s nuclear posture.
Small data point on the greenlash. For the first time, EVs get net positive approval ratings in this long-running survey by an insurance firm in Germany. The young and those who drive a lot (!) are most in favour of EVs, the latter have highest "switch rate" of 6.1%. www.huk.de/fahrzeuge/ra...
RIP US offshore wind. US Bureau of Offshore Energy Management rescinds ALL areas designated for offshore wind energy development in federal waters. gcaptain.com/boem-rescind... 🔌💡
With Russia set to challenge the West for years to come, what’s the best long-term strategy? Our new @erep.csis.org report explores the need for a renewed approach—potentially a modern take on Cold War-era containment. Please read, comment and share! 🔗 www.csis.org/analysis/lon...