Daejeon.
Stanton Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Author of ‘THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE’ (Polity) & ‘KIM JONG UN AND THE BOMB’ (Hurst/Oxford) Subscribe to my newsletter (Nukesletter): https://panda.substack.com/
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Daejeon.
Ah, pity!
Beautiful day at the inter-Korean Joint Security Area.
Nakatani closes by noting 2025 marks 60 years of Japan-ROK normalization and expresses hope that this year will be one of "rebirth" for the relationship.
He notes this is the first time a sitting minister of defense from Japan has given an address in Korea.
Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani Gen addresses the 2025 Seoul Defense Dialogue. Opens with a strong emphasis on ROK-Japan defense ties.
"Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and his South Korean counterpart, Ahn Gyu Back, agreed Monday in Seoul to bolster communication through reciprocal visits" english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/6...
North Korea publicizes a test of the massive new solid propellant engine Kim inspected recently (it has seen previous static testing) www.nknews.org?p=960774
Teodoro, focusing on nuclear dynamics in Asia, calls on China to take steps to reduce its nuclear stockpile and maintain strategic stability. (No mention of Russia, US, DPRK, India, or Pakistan.)
Seoul Defense Dialogue 2025 kicks off. Philippines Secretary of National Defense Teodoro, speaking first, warns against implying smaller states don't have agency amid great power competitive dynamics.
"South Korea protested the action to the U.S. and said it was trying to secure the release of its citizens." www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
And, mind you, this wasn't all too far removed from 2019: www.nknews.org/2017/05/n-ko...
This is truly incredible, especially when Trump and team were reluctant to understand Kim's thinking going into the 2019 Hanoi summit from *public* sources at them (including what he'd been saying in the months going in). Don't need a special listening device. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...
Also, Reuters, MTCR is not a treaty. From State: "The MTCR is not a treaty and does not impose any legally binding obligations on Partners (members)." www.state.gov/bureau-of-in...
"One of the first large sales that may come after the reinterpretation may be to Saudi Arabia." www.reuters.com/business/aer...
TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday: 🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM?? 🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader? ✈️ air-launched ballistic missile? 🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:
US Typhon missile system to temporarily deploy to Japan as part of exercise www.reuters.com/business/aer...
At this week's military parade, China showed off land, sea, and air-base nuclear capabilities for the first time. What's so significant about these weapons and China's choice to display them so prominently? @nktpnd.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/mj8S2...
It's insane that TPP has become an alternative to US bullying, when it was designed as a US-sponsored alternative to Chinese bullying, until Trump abruptly decided to quit. Not renegotiate, just quit. asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
Hot take: probably good for the leaders with de facto unitary nuclear launch authority to want to live forever (also, thank god for telomeres) www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...
It’s a romanization quirk: SLBM is Julang-1; ALBM is Jinglei-1. JL-1!
I’m still very slightly annoyed that China is calling the dual-capable ALBM the JL-1. (Yeah, yeah, I get why.)
"There's no sacrosanct reason that nuclear delivery systems distributed across land, air, and sea are essential for deterrence" www.businessinsider.com/china-showed...
Haha. I did do live commentary for a North Korean parade once with @nknewsorg.bsky.social!
I spoke to the @nytimes.com about what caught my eye at China’s major military parade yesterday www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Tong Zhao, an expert on China's nuclear forces, writes for The Economist. "In Asia, if China insists on rejecting American extended deterrence, it should articulate what alternative security arrangements it is willing to offer" www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
DF-5C first stages.
Did I see a DF-18J?? (Watching on my phone.)
Very calibrated. Kim walks out alongside Xi and Putin onto the viewing platform.
His prominence is very notable, too. I imagine part of North Korea's conditions for Kim's attendance included assurances on his prominent positioning alongside Xi.
Kim Jong Un has never before participated in an international event with this many world leaders present. Big moment for North Korea.
Putin, Xi, and Kim. The whole gang's together.
From former USSTRATCOM commander's 2022 testimony. CSS-10 Mod 2 is the DF-31A.
Very curious what state media commentary will have to say about the DF-31BJ because there are currently no officially acknowledged DF-31 siloes. (USG believes DF-31s will populate the new silo fields.)
When you finally have smaller warheads but aren't sure you trust the newer missiles completely
Pinging Carol Cohn.
井 for the 'J', implying a silo loader.
First Hwasong-20 and now DF-61. Big week for big new Asian ICBMs.
I'll be with @jimsciutto.bsky.social this evening on CNN to comment on some of this.
DF-61!
Definitely a lost battle under this admin, but if we do eventually return to normalcy, would really appreciate a hard requirement that every announced use of force by the state be accompanied by stating the authority under which it occured
The 2002 AUMF.
Single-shot bolts-out-of-the-blue are having a moment, huh variety.com/2025/film/re...
Hwasong-20 just might make me start posting again. (Was going to return tomorrow, anyway.)
What I've been up to lately.
Snark ICCM on Ulaanbaatar.
RIP www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAE...
I explained nuclear deterrence to YouTuber Johnny Harris for his video explainer on nuclear weapons. Check it out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U51...
"While permanently stationing French warheads in Germany isn’t ruled out, it isn’t likely, at least in the short run." www.wsj.com/world/europe...
If this is anything like what's in it, Ishiba is so done.
Mao did it first. bsky.app/profile/nktp...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm2N...
First gig I ever played (at 14) was a cover of N.I.B by Black Sabbath. RIP.
"He has these think tanks. And they build buildings for people to think and it's really not thinking," Trump says. This one is an all-timer.
Lake Michigan.
Commemorating the 80th anniversary of Trinity today here in Chicago with a group of Nobel laureates and nuclear weapons experts. @thebulletin.org
Probably the most directly supportive comments of North Korean nuclear status—and at the most authoritative level—so far from Russia. (Surpassing Lavrov's prior remarks going back to late-2023) on.ft.com/4nHmVPT
We are clean on OPSEC.
About Chicagoland.
Beautiful morning in Seoul today.
🧵Introducing optimal deterrence. Here's my proposed U.S. nuclear strategy for managing escalation, arms racing, and proliferation with two nuclear peers, published through @cfr.org. Health warning: If you like counterforce, take a DEEP breath before reading on. (1/n) www.cfr.org/report/optim...
For a more in-depth discussion on the nonpro dimensions of the Iran nuclear crisis, tune into my conversation with @nktpnd.bsky.social for @warontherocks.bsky.social (4/4) warontherocks.com/episode/thin...
UK and France vow to co-ordinate nuclear weapons for first time on.ft.com/44INAmE
Not only the first 🇮🇳 official confirmation that it lost multiple fighters in the May 2025 crisis, but a great remark for a civ-mil case study tossed in at the end as a bonus. m.thewire.in/article/poli...
Sign of the times: my first question after speaking at my first event in Tokyo during my first trip back since Jan. 2025 is "what would it take for Japan to build the bomb"?
President Trump placed a 25% tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, citing persistent trade imbalances with the two crucial U.S. allies in Asia. Trump provided notice of the tariffs by posting letters on Truth Social that were addressed to the leaders of both countries.
Good to be back, Tokyo.
Great to see 'THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE' reviewed in the @financialtimes.com: "Panda’s critique will land like a bucket of cold water on those who view nuclear as humanity’s last best hope for energy and see atomic confrontation as a thing of the past." www.ft.com/content/7fec...
I think like a lot of voters, Musk does not like the status quo but does not understand how government works. Unlike every other voter, he got to run government for a while, and his ignorance was incredibly destructive.
Very weird to be an hour into a bike ride and have two B-2s fly over you.
7/4
1/8 Later this year from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series-- Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail. This is a sobering edited volume on how efforts to reduce nuclear weapons dangers may sometimes wind up exacerbating them.
"...preventive war appears relatively more likely to occur in an attempt to preserve a monopoly on AGI than to prevent one." www.rand.org/pubs/working...
My friend, Joshua Pollack, penned this beautiful and wry double obituary of his father, Jonathan Pollack, and his first boss, Barry Blechman. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
27% of French see the US now as an adversary. (16% in Germany, 18% in the UK) Most still think the US is a necessary partner - but no longer an ally Poll instituteforglobalaffairs.org/wp-content/u...
The administration has argued that the destruction of Iran's uranium metal production lines at Isfahan will set its nuclear-weapon program back by "years." At Arms Control Wonk, I argue it may not even set Tehran back by months. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
US Halts Key Ukraine Weapons Deliveries Amid Russian Barrage www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
"The Air Force plans to use leftover funds from the LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile program to help pay for refurbishing a Qatari-donated plane into a new Air Force One presidential transport aircraft." www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...
"Democratic Party (DP) Rep. Park Sun-won, who serves on both the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee and National Defense Committee, said in a press conference Monday that he had received an internal military report confirming the operation." koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-07...
www.wsj.com/business/he-...
"The talks could shape the agenda for the first summit between President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump." koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-06...
In today's @financialtimes.com, I reflect on the implications of the joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran for a fragile and bruised nonproliferation regime on.ft.com/45Jehd3
I agree. I'd add that the two claims you juxtapose above are not equally supported by the available evidence at the moment (which is not the same as saying one is right) and there's value in helping non-expert media make sense of various scenarios.
It's possible... though I wonder, even if you're someone in the system who believes that, what your incentives would be for floating that argument so soon after these attacks (unless you're the SL, I suppose).
But, if I'm wrong, and internal politics demand otherwise, the bottleneck is not a deal-breaker for a very small deterrent and a device or two to test. This would be a bad outcome for everyone (weak deterrence for Iran, incentives to attack for Israel, and crisis instability all around).
I've spoke a bit about this (www.newstatesman.com/podcasts/ins...). It gets into subjective questions about what would be "enough" to deter (which Jeffrey and I have commented on elsewhere: muse.jhu.edu/pub/255/oa_e...). Prudence would mean reconstituting conversion at scale, I think.
This is what I worried about in 2018 after Trump declared North Korea no longer a nuclear threat after the Singapore summit.
That's the thing about truth-seeking and evidence-based policy.
Thanks JD!
A lot of technical assessments of Iran’s nuclear program feel rushed. There’s an overreliance on fuel cycle basics and projections built on major unknowns while overlooking domestic factors eg institutional disruption, procurement challenges, and acute paranoia.
Thanks!
In today's @financialtimes.com, I reflect on the implications of the joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran for a fragile and bruised nonproliferation regime on.ft.com/45Jehd3
bsky.app/profile/wash...
In @foreignpolicy.com I wrote about Iran and why nuclear uncertainty is bad for regional stability. Unclear diplomatic priorities + backlash against the IAEA w/in Iran are setting us down a dangerous path. @carnegieendowment.org @carnegienpp.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...
"In the days and weeks to come, policymakers will have to carefully distinguish between Iran’s legitimate frustrations and domestic political constraints and attempts to manipulate these conditions to mask clandestine proliferation ambitions."
ICYMI, for my @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast, I spoke to RAND Europe's Paul Van Hooft about the ongoing debates in Europe about deterrence with less/no America and the right mix of habits, conventional, and (novel) nuclear options: warontherocks.com/episode/thin...
