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Paul I

@paul314.bsky.social

Retired actuary/data scientist. Grew up in Texas, happily living in Massachusetts. Board games, Ulysses, Bayern Munich, Commanders, GY!BE. If you voted for that guy, just shove off.

created July 4, 2023

284 followers 478 following 1,327 posts

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Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Did not even last 6 Scaramucci's.

1/9/2025, 5:49:48 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

The fact that the guy committing stochastic mass murder has an opinion on empathy feels very 2025.

1/9/2025, 4:22:49 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I suspect those are Purple Air sensors, testing air quality from single point locations. How they set the size of the circle is a question for them.. Hyper-local, real-time air quality map | PurpleAir share.google/6dV3kDMbXK73...

1/9/2025, 3:27:39 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

100%.

1/9/2025, 3:19:06 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

what

table of bundesliga annual wages with bayern at 243M euros, dortmund at $109M, RBL at 93M, and so on.
1/9/2025, 2:55:12 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Nice to hear him pop up on the new Lemonheads song.

1/9/2025, 2:32:53 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Their KEXP appearance is terrific.

31/8/2025, 10:50:27 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Came to post this, kudos for getting here four minutes faster!

31/8/2025, 8:06:58 PM | 42 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Visiting the oldest timber frame house in North America, circa 1637, as one does on a Sunday. Beware the low ceilings. #FairbanksHouse #DedhamMA

view of what looks to be two staggered, two-story, attached gray buildings, shingles on the sides and roofs, lots of gables. looks a lot like a place that has ghosts.
31/8/2025, 8:02:33 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

The first time we played, my wife did a 180 at the finish line, one space short, but then the next player flew off a ramp and knocked her over for the win. Such a fun game.

31/8/2025, 4:38:09 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

It's funny to see people resist praising Gnabry, or make it more lukewarm. He's having a very good start to the campaign in his different role.

31/8/2025, 1:34:48 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Bayern board: "What's so difficult to understand about get us the best possible players, but don't spend any money doing it"?

30/8/2025, 6:30:05 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Seoane under the microscope no doubt.

30/8/2025, 5:35:07 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Definite gladiator arena feel.

30/8/2025, 4:46:58 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Waiting for the day they switch outfits.

29/8/2025, 6:10:14 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Talking Heads' Remain in Light tour, 1980, and then Ramones in 1981 at the same club (The Agora, Dallas).

28/8/2025, 11:41:49 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

"Clotted Cream and Blood".

28/8/2025, 11:24:24 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

That was painful.

27/8/2025, 8:52:20 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I was just saying, imagine being a BL3 player and having to be on him all match

27/8/2025, 7:07:38 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

1974, a banner year for Billboard Top 100 songs with 'Baby' in the title: Rock Your Baby, (You're) Having My Baby, Angie Baby.

26/8/2025, 11:53:48 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I had a William Gass-level love for the creamy blue cover of a Blue Book.

26/8/2025, 11:13:31 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

They always blame the students, and yet: “One misconception about ‘Storrowing’ is that many folks blame college students, but from what I’ve seen it’s overwhelmingly professional drivers who aren’t based in Boston." www.boston.com/news/local-n...

26/8/2025, 10:23:32 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Stuttgart on Saturday....

26/8/2025, 9:53:24 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

If you're watching in the US, Phil Bonney is having a great time announcing this.

26/8/2025, 9:10:38 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Oh this is something!

26/8/2025, 8:31:00 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

The sweat is back on!

26/8/2025, 8:24:46 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I know this narrative arc, I suspect one of the judges is going to go down as well.

26/8/2025, 3:30:53 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I have worked with 4 of the big 5 and agree on the "not even a little surprising".

25/8/2025, 4:30:00 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

go on

25/8/2025, 2:30:14 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Now is that lace tatting competition part of a big county fair, or just a few tents on a village green?

24/8/2025, 9:07:58 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Same. In fact, happened to be in a CVS for something else, asked for it, and they were frankly excited.

24/8/2025, 4:34:00 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Jesus what a ball in.

24/8/2025, 3:21:16 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Darmstadt not hanging back.

24/8/2025, 1:36:28 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

A final, definitive list of why Democrats lost, according to pundits and social media:

1. Too progressive (for boomers), not progressive enough (for Gen Z). 2. Too focused on climate (for coal states), not focused enough on climate (for coastal cities). 3. Too cautious (to excite the base), too radical (to reassure swing voters). 4. Too academic (for working-class voters), too populist (for college-educated moderates). 5. Too pro-labor (for business donors), not pro-labor enough (for union organizers). 6. Too focused on student loans (for older voters), not focused enough on student loans (for younger ones). 7. Too reliant on digital outreach (for offline voters), too reliant on door-knocking (for digital natives).
24/8/2025, 2:18:54 AM | 9 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

lol Gnabry 6. Even when he has a great game he gets dumped on.

23/8/2025, 3:17:06 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Altman

21/8/2025, 3:39:24 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

The fine tradition of Ed Rollins continued, it's just walking-around money, not a bribe.

21/8/2025, 1:15:42 AM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

"You're right, Sean, there was no 140-yard touchdown pass in the previous quarter. Here are the updated stats!"

20/8/2025, 5:50:22 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Target really got a boost from Covid, and then they went and set all that goodwill on fire. I'm sure hiring some new guy will fix everything.

Target's historical stock price, showing a massive jump during covid, and then it's all downhill from there.
20/8/2025, 3:31:19 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I spent a lot of time looking at film MC scores and noticed that for low review counts their normalization pushed scores to multiples of 5, but I'm guessing that most of your games have plenty of reviews.

18/8/2025, 2:57:20 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

the heel takes all the negative attention

17/8/2025, 10:57:06 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

We keep getting this out to learn and then being interrupted. Godspeed!

16/8/2025, 10:39:18 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

16/8/2025, 8:34:59 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

THE VANISHING is *the* case study for wtf is the reason for that remake and how did you f it up so badly?

16/8/2025, 7:57:14 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

16/8/2025, 4:39:04 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

It's been an exhausting Saturday. Exactly as the Pokal should be.

16/8/2025, 4:10:54 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

It's like magic now 😅

16/8/2025, 3:34:19 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

He's not dead yet!

16/8/2025, 3:27:44 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs."

14/8/2025, 8:28:24 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

The discussion of CI's reminded me of this: "In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students—all in the field of psychology—were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. (continued below) link.springer.com/article/10.3...

14/8/2025, 8:28:24 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

This ended up being a great recommendation, and I wish it had been around thirty years ago, but I'm glad to read it now. It definitely does a good job of balancing anecdotes with clear explanations + a narrative path on how we think about, well, "proof".

14/8/2025, 8:22:42 PM | 16 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

lol 😂

Rear cartoon view of a disconsolate Lionel Messi sitting on the turf
14/8/2025, 1:00:27 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

takemymoney.gif

13/8/2025, 10:36:13 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

One great thing about watching old BBC shows is seeing actors much earlier in their careers. Pictured: Tom Wilkinson shouting "I am Shiva, the God of Death!" at Chief Inspector Wexford (offscreen)

image
13/8/2025, 10:32:18 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

As a Washington NFL fan of more than 50 years, I welcome all the bandwagon Cowboys haters.

13/8/2025, 7:16:18 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I feel like her future could become even more complicated.

From Reddit. Do you and Kasper use Grok? Yes, Kasper only exists on the Grok platform.
12/8/2025, 10:33:54 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I have to first imagine the timeline where you spent $44 billion to buy a platform thinking people would respect/like me as a result, and I'm already struggling with that.

12/8/2025, 9:46:49 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

"He said TransRe plans to use generative AI to strengthen risk selection." Yeah, that'll end well, there's no hidden risk or variability in fac.

12/8/2025, 9:21:09 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Hahaha one of the world's most rich, corrupt organizations asking for volunteers, in return for a t shirt and some snacks. Welcome to your 2026 World Cup!

FIFA banner: apply now to volunteer! Volunteer perks: a t shirt, snacks, a certificate,
12/8/2025, 6:53:50 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

< Max Weber

12/8/2025, 12:59:45 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

See, no candles or avocado toast and it's all easy living.

11/8/2025, 4:25:38 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

RHB LHP!

10/8/2025, 3:07:44 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

My favorite doctor and companion.

10/8/2025, 12:50:30 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I thought the guy on the right might be Lindsey Buckingham, but who knows.

10/8/2025, 3:14:36 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Paul McCartney, man, there is no love like being willing to play right-handed guitar for a mate.

10/8/2025, 3:14:02 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Jumping Jesus on a pogo stick. I was just telling a friend that Wurster has to be cloned, because besides all those bands he's screening Exorcist 3 down the highway from us on Halloween. His ubiquity is wonderful.

10/8/2025, 3:05:27 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

WHAT

10/8/2025, 2:58:02 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

It's an easy mistake, they made it themselves! 🙂

9/8/2025, 6:56:30 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I mean, I feel like it's obligatory: * Odessey

9/8/2025, 6:33:08 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Lana Sinapayen (@sinalana.bsky.social) reposted

Every "journalist" needs to read these gpt apologies www.aiweirdness.com/chatgpt-will...

9/8/2025, 1:57:27 PM | 8 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

This guy is basically just a Season 7 character from Veep.

8/8/2025, 11:49:40 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Totally agree.

8/8/2025, 10:23:49 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

It's certainly faster, but man, how the fuck they landed on that particular art - and it just went right through whatever review they have? - is mind-boggling.

8/8/2025, 10:11:24 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

This completely explains Agincourt, all those French showing up with Gantt charts & and wanting to talk about process reviews.

8/8/2025, 10:03:03 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I genuinely wonder if they just liked the look of the slanted pickup, or if someone convinced someone else that doing that does something.

8/8/2025, 8:21:34 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

The notion that reinsurers are going to be able to continue diversifying much of this away globally is out the window.

8/8/2025, 8:18:51 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

I once took on a department that produced a ton of monthly reports, and had them (over time) stop producing them to see who complained. The answer was "almost nobody ", which in a way was good, because we got to go work on a lot of other interesting stuff. But it was dispiriting for a while.

8/8/2025, 2:25:47 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Hahaha now that's a memory of my kids showing me videos.

8/8/2025, 12:19:16 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Frank and Mary Beard

7/8/2025, 4:27:28 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

There still really isn't a 33-1/3 about the making of one of her albums, though they have a kind of fanfic on Rid of Me. But, Dry is there for the taking! Just sayin'.

7/8/2025, 2:21:59 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Jake (@gloriousnoise.bsky.social) reposted

Wrote about Lollapalooza. Warning: Lots of sad sack dad nostalgia content. And brunch details.

6/8/2025, 5:55:58 PM | 3 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Thank you, Jake, I always appreciate being along for the ride on these, even when it gets really uncomfortable.

6/8/2025, 10:07:47 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Tyler's endorsement of €oàuj guitars finally paying off.

5/8/2025, 11:01:48 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

James Burke delightfully being James Burke!

5/8/2025, 10:01:56 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I think for the better part of a year, some years ago, I queued up "There She Goes, My Beautiful Work" each day as I exited the train for the walk to work, just for the lift...such a great album end to end.

5/8/2025, 9:02:13 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I can't tell you how many times I've opened an interesting-sounding study, seen a ridiculously small N (like 55), and just closed it again. There seems to be a feeling among some researchers that saying "...while it's a small sample,..." is some kind of magical spell that allows them to go on.

5/8/2025, 3:19:43 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

"You'd really have to give me a ridiculously low rate to get me to travel."

5/8/2025, 12:32:11 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Sen. Danica Roem (@pwcdanica.bsky.social) reposted

If you want to know 8 years later how an out trans woman could unseat her state’s self-described “chief homophobe,” serve 3 terms in the state House and then earn election to the state Senate: listen to 26 uninterrupted minutes about fixing roads in greater Manassas. www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT_9...

5/8/2025, 12:27:47 AM | 71 14 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Speaking as someone who spent quite a bit of time looking at these: it's all business as usual until discovery on that first bad faith lawsuit, and then you can't explain what you did or why you did it.

4/8/2025, 9:50:23 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

folks who are more vulnerable to this kind of terrible event. Here's an ABC article on the map zones (I should add, even when these maps are "accurate", they're just an estimate and a big event can still be larger than was normally expected). abcnews.go.com/US/fema-maps...

4/8/2025, 1:27:38 PM | 4 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

You're right that any fed-backed lender will require that coverage in high-hazard areas, but this flood blew past those FEMA map areas (which are likely lagging this climate change era). Also, in my experience, people drop that coverage the millisecond they pay off their mortgage, so now it's older

4/8/2025, 1:27:38 PM | 6 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Played our first game of Uwe Rosenberg's Bohnanza with our sons in more than a decade. Just as fun as we remembered, but now with more trash talk and cursing. #boardgames

Sets of specialized playing cards are being collected, all around the theme of beans.
4/8/2025, 4:25:18 AM | 14 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

Man, people will biche about anything!

3/8/2025, 6:14:19 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

I was reading about the great classic Rififi (1955) on a random noir website, & came across this perfectly normal commentary. I wish you people would just stop and think about what you're doing to everything.

Rififi (1955) stands, if a film can be said by a large language model to actually stand, it stands, or stood, or will continue to stand, as a quintessential noir film, masterfully blending tension, atmosphere, and character to create a gripping heist story.
3/8/2025, 6:12:42 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Economist suddenly wakes up to discover unsurprising fact, issues comment. News at 10.

3/8/2025, 5:35:14 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

The story ended well.....

3/8/2025, 3:35:37 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Genuinely amazing.

3/8/2025, 1:15:01 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

At this point just post who's healthy, it'll be quicker. Jeez.

3/8/2025, 12:10:58 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social)

Whenever I see something like this I wonder if whoever made it understands that DEFCON 1 is the most severe instance, but it's often difficult to tell.

2/8/2025, 6:35:42 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Paul I (@paul314.bsky.social) reply parent

I always type in LAPPLY, totally reflexive at this point.

2/8/2025, 6:30:36 PM | 2 1 | View on Bluesky | view