There’s a lot more to Russia’s drone incursion into Poland than first meets the eye. youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno?...
Paul Warburg is a geopolitical analyst and YouTuber. https://youtube.com/@pauljwarburg?si=SDnFSyzRBsVw5xl- https://youtube.com/@icarusproject?si=XdEHMMVz6XGOCqd1
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There’s a lot more to Russia’s drone incursion into Poland than first meets the eye. youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno?...
Ukraine keeps tricking Russia - and Russia keeps falling for it. Short term? Russia loses men and materiel. Long term? Russia loses something much more important - their confidence to exploit legitimate battlefield opportunities, leaving them psychologically paralyzed. youtu.be/pWvhRNbzxuk?...
Predicted this months ago. Ukraine knows the value of its data to training the AI weapons of the future. They don’t have to give that to the west for free - especially to countries like the U.S. if we keep insulting and gaslighting them for defending themselves. www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Ukraine’s recent actions against Russia could be much more significant than most people realize. It might look like “more of the same” to the untrained eye, but to me it looks like a decisive shift and a targeted strategy. youtu.be/ZuPxOe6bSgM?...
When Hitler decided to openly rearm Germany, he knew he was gambling with sanctions. Had sanctions been applied, Germany’s position would have been hopeless. World War II never would have happened. Instead, the western world decided “not to provoke Germany.” History repeats itself.
Much is made of Ukraine’s manpower shortage. Few mention that Ukraine has levers to pull that they haven’t pulled yet. They can lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 - the “normal” age in most western countries. That they haven’t done so yet shows they aren’t as desperate as is said.
The only way he CAN help end the war is to put more pressure on Russia. Talks with Russia will generate media, but they won’t generate results.
The current media cycle on Ukraine has repeated itself many times. “Trump wants peace. He says it’s close. Nothing actually happens.” No surprise. I said it a year ago - Trump CAN’T end the war, because the U.S. does NOT have any leverage to force Ukraine to do anything. We are quick to forget.
If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, he needs to apply the sanctions he threatened against Russia…the same way he ripped away military support from Ukraine the moment a conversation didn’t go “his way.” Otherwise he is once again being fooled by the mere words of Vladimir Putin.
Everyone is nervous about how the war will go, but the reality is that Ukraine is simply repeating thousands of years of military history. We are witnessing history in the making. When we look back, the conclusion will seem obvious the whole time.
By agreeing to meet with Trump to try to avoid his sanctions, Putin has inadvertently revealed that he IS VERY worried about them. It’s VITAL that Trump presses that advantage rather than caving in to Russia’s demands.
In Ukraine, conventional weapons are losing relevance in favor of drone warfare. Yet Europe and the U.S. continue to stockpile conventional munitions for a war that may or may not ever happen. It would be better to send more to Ukraine now while they still have a punch. youtu.be/icCwKBjfBkU?...
Thanks John. Appreciate the article. I wouldn’t call myself “post-theological”, to be clear. I think that the morality of Christianity actually flows out of a good theology - a good understanding of who God is :)
People keep saying there are “nuclear tensions.” That plays right into Russia’s hands. They’ve been threatening nuclear war for YEARS and nothing happens. Trump “positioning” nuclear subs isn’t sending a message to Russia. The subs were already accounted for. It’s about looking strong at home.
Russians: “Ukraine isn’t able to siege Crimea, Paul. You don’t know what you’re talking about.” Meanwhile, Ukrainians: www.reuters.com/world/europe...
These are good developments. I just wish people would have listened sooner. I’ve been called every name possible by people on the right, for trying to encourage the right to do exactly what they’re finally starting to do now. We wasted a lot of lives playing politics. apple.news/AJ08cTq6NQhC...
China’s military doctrine is based on misdirection - and for two decades they have been gesturing wildly at Taiwan so everyone would see. What happens when you put two and two together, and combine a Russian war in the west with intense historical grievances in the east? youtu.be/WMgUhZTNPRE?...
Russia failed to read the 33 strategies of war.
Big milestone today! Thanks to all my subscribers!
Russia’s naval base WAS damaged by the tsunami. A pier snapped in half. That’s just the apparent damage we can see from satellite, but it confirms large waves did hit the base and cause damage…likely much more extensive than we can know. Any ships at dock would have been slammed into piers.
Not only can Crimea be sieged, it IS being sieged. But because it looks different than a lot of people expect, many have missed the significance of what’s happened there. More than that, even the Russian military has already pulled back from Crimea in many important ways youtu.be/wzWjnZte6dI?...
I always invite Russian trolls to poke actual holes in my discussions. They never do. The best they can say is “This is delusional propaganda” or “Take your meds” or “Go back to the asylum”…without ever clarifying why my analysis is actually wrong. That’s how you know you’re over the target.
The most overlooked aspects of warfare are often sociological. A lot of people will miss the negative religious implications for the Russian Orthodox Church of a magnitude 8.8 earthquake striking with an epicenter next to Russia’s nuclear naval base. That and a lot more: youtu.be/TwSIL-wIHgw?...
Not to worry guys. It’s not really an earthquake. It’s just a Special Seismic Operation.
Russian TV began threatening Alaska again. Around the same time, an 8.8 earthquake (6th largest recorded in history) struck RIGHT outside Russia’s ONLY naval base in that area. A tsunami has hit the naval base, and now a volcano is erupting to its north. Irony sucks if you’re Russian.
Russians are currently telling me how Ukrainian strikes on Russian rail lines are irrelevant and won’t make a difference. In the next breath they will tell me how Ukraine would lose the war almost instantly if Pokrovsk fell, because it’s a rail hub.
Ukraine has been crushing Russian supply lines lately. It’s already largely stopped Russia’s summer offensive. And there’s very little Russia can do about it. Russia is too large to fully defend. All it takes is a single strike on a rail line to completely stop deliveries. youtu.be/x0nvJ1Ehi-M?...
Here’s one: www.wsj.com/world/russia...
It’s now literally true that the Russian government has collapsed in many different regions. That’s because Russia is failing to fulfill the most basic aspects of what a government does - they cannot provide adequate law enforcement. Russia is literally descending into anarchy youtu.be/P7IyrpY8tF8
When Russia claims the U.S. “staged a coup in 2014” to “oust Russian influence from Ukraine”, do they not realize this only implies Russia was trying to do the same thing, but failed? Not only is this “coup” a lie, but they aren’t even mad that Ukraine was toppled, only that Russian influence was
Those who say it’s “impossible” for Ukraine to retake Crimea simply haven’t thought about the problem for very long. There’s many paths to Ukrainian victory there - most of them even being relatively bloodless. Sound too good to be true? Find out more in my latest video: youtu.be/y3onBGqcHHk?...
Two weeks ago I made a video about how the United States would NEED Ukraine’s drones to win wars of the future. I was told I was wrong, that the U.S. couldn’t possibly be less advanced than Ukraine in any way. Now today, it’s announced that the U.S. indeed wants a drone partnership with Ukraine…
I correctly predicted that the recent U.S. pause in aid to Ukraine would lead to today’s announcement. Lots of people got this one wrong for various reasons. That doesn’t mean I’m totally thrilled about it. Check out my recent video for why this excites AND frustrates me. youtu.be/w0D93ndf0cE?...
Over three years into a literal war, I haven’t heard a single American or European politician talk about ever “invading Russia.” Not once. And yet Russia will swear that them invading Ukraine was “defensive” to protect from “NATO aggression.”
@siliconcurtain.bsky.social
Check out my full length interview on Silicon Curtain to get my take on lots of important issues at this stage in the war. It was great talking with Jonathan. youtu.be/jCLQRzuPbqg?...
Americans will cheer when they watch the lighting of the beacons in “Return of the King.” “The beacons are lit! Gondor calls for aid!” “And Rohan will answer!” *loud cheers* And then in the same breath look at Ukraine’s war against Russia and mutter “Yeah, but helping them would cost us MONEY!”
There’s a clear path forward to a lasting peace in Ukraine, if we’re willing to grasp it. youtu.be/nDqn27gl2vg?...
With hundreds of thousands of views per video, I rarely see any substantive rebuttals to any of my research on the war in Ukraine. Lots of claims that “Russia is winning” or “This is just propaganda” but that’s as far as it goes. If Russia is winning, why is it so hard for people to explain why?
So many reports that Iran’s nuclear capabilities may NOT have actually been destroyed on the same day the ceasefire was announced. It seems silly to have rushed to declare victory before results were in. Or? It could be insincere posturing. “We really wanted fast peace, I promise. Not our fault.”
When a U.S. Presidential candidate campaigns on “no more wars”… It’s a sure sign they will probably start or join a war at some point in their term.
The trouble these days seems to be getting people to believe the reality we can see with our own eyes of the incompetent Russian military struggling to hang on in Ukraine for over 3 years. Instead, many still believe in the fictional Russian military prowess portrayed in Red Dawn and Call Of Duty.
Trump accidentally said the quiet part out loud. Threatened to cancel Elon’s contracts for insulting him. Implying the contracts exist because of personal loyalty. Simple. If Elon gives the best service, he should keep the public contracts. If not, why did he have them in the first place?
See if you can spot the difference: To retaliate against Ukraine hitting their *military bases* with drones and embarrassing them, Russia ramps up their bombing attacks on Ukrainian *cities*.
A few days ago I made a video explaining how the way Trump was using tariffs (and other things) was a dangerous step towards a centrally-run U.S. economy. A U.S. court agreed, saying Trump’s position does NOT give him the power to unilaterally impose wide sweeping tariffs. youtu.be/9bdrhvWhHKI?...
@paulwarburg.bsky.social is just churning out one brilliant analysis after the other. youtube.com/watch?v=pZlp...
Paul - absolutely love your videos. I just watched the one on Russia-China dynamics… and it beautifully matches one I did nearly 2 weeks ago: Title: China can now cannibalise Russia. …all about China’s control over a war-weakened Russia, Siberian depop, Outer Manchuria, resources, trade routes 👇
A lot of people don’t understand the clear economic fundamentals that can easily trigger a direct chain of cause and effect from the U.S. trade wars to the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. I explain them fully in today’s video: youtu.be/FSLVs0SqJQY?...
One of the reasons I never feared war with China was because we were their biggest market. It would have been foolish for China to start a war and endure such massive economic damage. Now that we’re intent on the economic damage, even before the war, the sky is the limit. youtu.be/43dys6UMIYg?...
Russia’s current situation has multi-layered parallels with what led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. I explain: Russia Can't Survive the Oil Price Crash youtu.be/CESHnNcC5gs
Trump was offered a zero for zero tariff deal by the EU - BEFORE he implemented the latest round of tariffs. He’s not pausing them now to “negotiate better trade deals.” Those trade deals were already on the table. He’s pausing them because the backlash has been so severe.
I explain in depth why Trump’s tariffs are NOT the reason TSMC is investing in the United States. I believe in giving credit where credit is due. But I also believe in NOT taking credit when it’s not due (it’s a ‘small’ thing called integrity). youtu.be/YHd0HBURR5w?...
Not currently, unfortunately :(
There’s a reason Russians in Moscow still feel “prosperous.” And it’s NOT because the country is doing so well. As empires get closer to collapse, work is done to make those close to the top feel ‘normal’. It’s a paranoid survival strategy. And it doesn’t last long. youtu.be/Rxg5p4JV8W8?...
After posting this video, I’ve already received emails from American military tech executives confirming that they have in fact lost their market overnight, and are now having to consider shuttering their doors. The damage of “whiplash” policy is real. youtu.be/GgtdDEV0pfA?...
Thanks! I always report them and warn people, but they do pretty consistently show up again :(
Hey, wasn’t me unfortunately :(
One of the top questions I get asked lately is “What happens if Trump ends sanctions against Russia?” Short answer: Not much. I explain in this video: youtu.be/3vMZz0Zhj58
With Europe fully behind Ukraine, it is nearly impossible for Ukraine to lose this war. I explain why in full detail in today’s video. youtu.be/_OgmSUhKpXA?...
When Russia bombs Ukraine, it is now so commonplace, that it sadly hardly captures most peoples’ attention these days. It’s just the “new normal”, though bombing should never be ‘normal’. But when Russia bombs Russia? We should definitely sit up and ask ourselves “Why?”. youtu.be/6rciJK22gjU?...
I’ve always been fascinated by maps and by cause and effect. That’s why I love geopolitics. I’ve never been able to stand reality TV. It’s frustrating right now. To study geopolitics, I also have to watch daily reality TV from the White House. Can’t I just watch WWII documentaries instead?
Trump claims to be on the side of peace by trying to force Ukraine to negotiate instead of fighting. Simultaneously, he bombs Houthis WITHOUT first attempting to negotiate with them. The reason? To protect the very trade routes he is attacking economically with tariffs. youtu.be/nXL4aVGficc?...
Trump’s trade wars are inconsistent with Trump’s actual wars. While decrying foreign imports into the U.S. via tariffs, Trump has no qualms bombing the Houthis to keep the trade routes for those imports open. If we strike Yemen instead of talking to them, why do we force Ukraine to talk to Russia?
A lot of people have worried about Elon Musk shutting off Ukraine’s Starlink access. I’d like to calm some nerves, so I explain in this video why that’s not at all likely (due to Elon’s own self interest). youtu.be/Kty4WRIZMNU?...
Whereabouts in SoCal? I’m originally from Riverside :)
One of my more heartfelt videos. I encourage all Americans to watch it and think through everything that’s said, even if you tend to disagree. This conversation is too important to just ignore the other side. youtu.be/0f0vuCycOTE?...
I have a video coming later today on this, but I don’t really agree. I think a ceasefire is pointless because *both* sides have the same opportunity to rebuild, resulting in more deaths when it ends. But I don’t see it as only helping Russia. Russia could pause to rebuild forces whenever it wanted.
If Tesla’s stock price had any fundamentals backing it up (actual sales or profits), Musk wouldn’t bemoan the price crash. He’d celebrate it as a chance to get a great deal. That’s not the case. Tesla’s value is almost 100% based on speculation and “good feelings.” And the bill is coming due.
The indications I am getting are that U.S. intelligence pauses are currently partial, not full pauses, and apply to intelligence for offensive long-range strikes within Russia. It seems to be an open case whether this applies to “defensive intelligence.” Anyone seeing anything different?
None yet, but lots of articles about us investigating the possibility.
Hello Paul. I was in despair about the USA ending support for Ukraine and ending sanctions on Russia. Your video gave me hope. Thank you for pulling me out of a dark place. Slava Ukraini www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxUv...
TSMC’s $100b investment in the U.S. is not because of tariffs. It’s because of cheap energy, vulnerable supply chains, and China’s threats against Taiwan. TSMC has already invested $65b in Arizona since 2020 - years spent under a different admin. The same trends also drive Apple’s investments.
Jake, I’m close to you. Salt Lake City is a 1 hour flight from Vegas. I can get down there. Let me know if you want to team up and protest the U.S. pause of aid to Ukraine.
Hey, those are spam bots impersonating me. Don’t give them any information!
Our children will ask us why the country that stood up to Hitler, Stalin, and Mao suddenly changed its mind and failed to stand up to Putin while hundreds of thousands died. Right now our answer seems to be “Well it seemed expensive and scary and hard.” What happened to “Make America Great Again?”
American companies mining in Ukraine isn’t a security guarantee. American people don’t have to be involved. It could just as well be Ukrainians working for American-owned companies. Americans have also already been killed during the current war. That didn’t magically get us involved or stop Putin.
Unlike most commenting on Ukraine, my personal circles have always leaned Republican. I was dismayed early on by how many people in the party I wanted to love were against supporting Ukraine. Now, with every decision Trump makes, I am seeing more and more Republicans outraged. That gives me hope.
@hcrichardson.bsky.social said it best (open.substack.com/pub/heatherc...)
Zelensky thanked the United States, the US President, and Congress for their support after a tense meeting with Trump and Vance.
I just watched a heated exchange of the president and vice president of the United States talking over the president of Ukraine and never letting him speak. This all while saying “we need diplomacy” and “we need to listen to the other side.” Apparently we have to listen to everyone but Ukraine.
This might be my most important video to date. I examine the full text of Trump’s “Ukraine ‘Mineral’ Deal” (which turns out to actually be a reconstruction deal) and delve into the somewhat disturbing implications. youtu.be/4X2GW_JvPMk?...
Thanks! That’s very generous of you! I am not certain what the tiers looks like in other countries, but on my side the tiers are set at a $5 level. Thanks for letting me know - I’ll do some digging and see what things look like for international audiences and if it’s different for some reason.
Yep, here’s one. m.economictimes.com/news/interna... This was a very underreported incident. You really have to dig. There were also some sources in Russian media at the time about how Russians weren’t happy and how “joint development” was a Kremlin cover story. Not sure if those still exist.
Keeping Ukraine out of peace talks will prolong the war, not shorten it. Ukraine is currently still fighting to defend itself for the exact purpose of not being carved up by other nations. A “peace deal” without Ukraine is just the current status quo, but making it “look” like you did something.
Yes, the same Russians who claim they invaded Ukraine to “denazify” it regularly come at me with anti-semitic comments because of my last name. They don’t even pretend to believe their own narrative.
Impossible to say without seeing it in action, as was the case with Russia. China, unlike Russia, actually has a substantial manufacturing base. So at the very least, they would outclass Russia. The U.S. and Europe? Hard to say. China steals most military tech rather than developing directly.
The problem with China invading Taiwan is that…everybody knows about it. Land invasions of this scale have always been cloaked in huge secrecy. But China has broadcast their intentions. My theory? It’s a cover story for military buildup that’s aimed at a different target. More in a video soon.
Tariffs can’t convince manufacturers to bring production home in a place like the U.S. We change admins every 4 year. If the only advantage to manufacturing in the U.S. is created by a tariff that the next admin can lift, companies won’t take the risk of large new capital investments. Econ 101.
Today my country begins its trade war on Mexico, Canada, and China. It doesn’t make me happy. Tariffs have a track record of making a lot of things worse, and there’s really no great historical examples of tariffs bringing about prosperity. For more, check out my video: youtu.be/p5o2rMaKjYg
Your video, The Truth About Russia's Shadow Fleet was eye opening Thanks for posting www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Aa6...
Said it before, but Ukraine can stop Russia’s shadow fleet by targeting a small number of facilities on the coast. They haven’t done so at scale because a complete block of Russian energy could jeopardize western support. But if that support ever ends…Ukraine has options. apple.news/AMiQsx0r1Ru-...
Russia has a well-trodden playbook of tyranny that they used in Georgia, then Ukraine, and now in Transnistria/Moldova with a chilling level of parallels. I discuss more in my latest video. youtu.be/qezEm0jiHvs
YouTube comments are something else right now. The normal wave of Russian bots repeating the same thing over and over is being drowned out by a wave of bots promoting a fake Elon Musk crypto token. Finally Elon Musk produces a solid stand against Russia - just not in the way we ever expected! 😂
A fascinating example of how more widespread military revolt can begin. Russian military commanders refusing orders to cross the Dnieper River. Some have even gone so far as to sabotage their own boats or reveal their location to make such assaults impossible. www.newsweek.com/russian-comm...
The idea that tariffs can save the U.S. economy is a lot sillier than you might even think. AND there are a ton of inconsistencies in tariff philosophy that show this isn’t an actual attempt at helping people, but rather a shameless ploy to get votes in swing states. youtu.be/p5o2rMaKjYg?...
Lot of people seem to be missing that Zelenskyy implying he’d “trade land for NATO membership” is simply because NATO membership is impossible where an active conflict is going on. That doesn’t mean Ukraine is giving up - it means NATO is the only possible path to security IF there’s a negotiation.
After, not afternoon. Darn that Apple autocorrect :)
Trump says “There was never much benefit in Syria for Russia.” He misses the point. There may not been a benefit for the Russian state, but Russian oligarchs and military officers made LOTS of money there propping up the Assad regime. I’ve made videos on this. That’s what really drives Russia.
The fall of Assad is about more than just Syria. The fact that Russia did NOTHING to stop it afternoon many years of direct intervention shows just how over-leveraged their military is in Ukraine. Russia can’t risk an escalation of any kind, because the pressure would be just too much.