Happens in cap markets all the time - if any other countries out there in the market, now’s you’re chance to intellectually lead for the next 10-15y
Part-time pickle, full-time uncaged
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Happens in cap markets all the time - if any other countries out there in the market, now’s you’re chance to intellectually lead for the next 10-15y
LFG
Trump wasn't seen yesterday by the White House press pool. He wasn't seen today. He has no public events scheduled this weekend. Trump hasn't been seen in public since Weds, and it's unclear if he'll be seen in public until Tues. That's pretty damn weird.
Great piece - favorite line: ‘I’m not a lawyer, but last I heard you weren’t allowed to act illegally if obeying the law would be embarrassing.’
CAP ECON: “We obviously have no particular insight into whether the Supreme Court will uphold .. If it did, “Treasury would .. need to return most of the now-close to $100bn in additional customs duties .. and there is a danger .. other countries would back-track on any preliminary agreements.”
There's going to be a lot of dumb political noise following this decision, so it's worth being clear about the key finding. It does not ban tariffs. It simply says that you have to convince Congress.
Global rebalancing of equity portfolios would ensue
The bigger issue and one that people seem to forget is our status as reserve currency. China and Russia are direct benefactors if we lose this. They have been activity trying to destroy our credibility. IF we lose this, like many tail risks it happens all at once, our bonds will struggle further
Short long bonds - longish short bonds. Likely some decent belly action but steepening nonetheless. Country risk premium would get baked into the long end, which I believe is very small for the US currently, as well as term premium. Inflation fears would ignite + supply overhang out the curve.
ICE took 2 firefighters OFF THE FUCKING FIRE LINE!?
“.. We’re losing this country in real time,” Newsom said. “It’s not bloviation, not exaggeration. It’s happening.” @politico.com www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Breaking: Democrat Catelin Drey just won an Iowa Senate district that Trump won by double digits last year, flipping the seat blue. Republican just lost their supermajority in the chamber.
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has been around for 111 years. In that time it has had more than 100 members (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal...). No president has ever fired (or claimed to have fired) one before.
Trump is desperately looking for a scapegoat to cover for his own failure to lower costs for Americans and firing Lisa Cook is his latest move. It’s an authoritarian power grab that blatantly violates the Federal Reserve Act, and any court that follows the law will overturn it.
Intimidation? This is 100% about control.
The State of Illinois at this time has received no requests or outreach from the federal government asking if we need assistance, and we have made no requests for federal intervention.
If a president wanted to become effectively a dictator, he’d likely: 1. Purge govt of non loyalists 2. Weaponize law against opponents 3. Use military to police opposition strongholds 4. Threaten media, schools, businesses w penalties to get them to heel 5. Change election rules in his favor.
Gavin Newsom responds to Fox's OBSESSION with him
Wait what?
Vermont’s Republican Governor Phil Scott has REJECTED Trump's second request to send National Guard troops to Washington, D.C.
I bet he'd hate if this side-by-side went viral.
More from Newsom’s press office.
Situation on 14th St and W St. NW, with federal agents -- no specific agency identified -- pulling cars over for checks. They arrested a Black woman in this car. BIG crowd of people shouting at police. "Fuck you!" "What is wrong with you!" "You don't need to terrorize people like this!"
Tense scene out here. People booing and shaming unidentified federal law enforcement as they stand in the middle of the street, posted to pull people over for random checks.
Signs you might be a far right authoritarian party (#3198):
I guess welcome to US authoritarianism….
Fifty-one years ago today.
And yet Dems can’t seem to figure it out….
The Department of Homeland Security is holding up more than $100 million preapproved dollars intended to help hurricane-battered North Carolina clean up storm damage and fix infrastructure, according to documents obtained by The Post.
Exclusive: The Department of Justice hired a former Jan. 6 defendant who was caught on tape urging rioters to "kill" police. The department calls him a "valued member" of the administration.
Until we pass a nationwide ban on gerrymandering (which we need), Democrats should gerrymander every state to the fullest extent. 52-0 in CA, 17-0 in IL, and so on. No more unilateral disarmament. Time to get serious about fighting back.
I stand with @pbs.org and their efforts to carry on the legacy of the CPB. "For $5/month or $60/yr you get access to PBS Passport and the entire Masterpiece library plus Great Performances, etc. Defunded but not defeated." www.pbs.org/passport/lea...
Mark my words: Trump will defy our Supreme Court too. It’s just a matter of time.
Newsom: He knows he’s going to lose in the midterms, and we have the opportunity to de facto end the Trump presidency in less than 18 months. That’s what’s at stake. That’s why we’re putting a stake in the ground. We’re not drawing lines just to draw lines—we’re holding the line: on democracy.
NEW: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) stood alongside Texas House Democrats Monday, condemning what she called a “legal insurrection” by Republicans in Texas and beyond — vowing that New York would not sit quietly as democracy is dismantled state by state. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
I just need one member of the media to ask Trump how much a $500 drug would cost after a 1500% discount.
Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements This is a big deal
In the cheap fun category, we actually have an independent source of data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has data on payroll taxes paid by month. apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqi...
"He can either give us a license... or we’ll smash the fucking window out and drag him out.” That's not just any ICE officer saying that. His name is Matthew Elliston and he now oversees ICE field operations on the East Coast.
They’re not just redrawing districts. They’re rigging democracy. Texas proposed a map that could wipe out 5 Democratic seats— and they’re not stopping there. Gerrymandering is the biggest threat to our democracy. And, if we don’t fight back now, we forfeit fair elections. @katiephang.bsky.social
🚨North Carolina voters: Have you checked that your voter registration is complete? The State Board of Elections has identified over 100,000 North Carolinians whose voter registrations are missing key information. Visit ncsbe.gov/registrationrepair and share with others!
Hans Luther was the principled and independent president of Germany’s central bank, Timothy W. Ryback writes. “But when Luther wouldn’t accede to Hitler’s demands, he feared for his life and had to leave”:
The looks like Trump with a mustache on the left lol
“California is so far using forty per cent less natural gas to generate electricity than it did in 2023, which is the single most hopeful statistic I’ve seen in four decades of writing about the climate crisis.” www.newyorker.com/news/annals-...
I'm tellin ya. You may think I'm crazy for worrying about Trump stripping people of citizenship - and I hope I'm wrong - but there's a lot of things we couldn't imagine happening in the United States until they did.
A State Department employee shared with PBS News an image from inside the department. The image includes a piece of paper taped to a mirror with the words, "Colleagues, if you remain: RESIST FASCISM. Remember the oath you vowed to uphold."
Unconstitutional.
Voter suppression…. We, as a nation, have to ensure voter turnout is above and beyond ‘24 and ‘20 numbers….
I don’t think anyone is prepared for what they just did w/ ICE. This is not a simple budget increase. It is an explosion - making ICE bigger than the FBI, US Bureau of Prisons, DEA,& others combined. It is setting up to make what’s happening now look like child’s play. And people are disappearing.
Wealth transfer from the poor to the rich creating an American style oligarchy
We know too well the devastating consequences of such action—families torn apart, livelihoods destroyed, and multigenerational trauma inflicted on a community for decades. #AlligatorAlcatraz #NeverAgainIsNow
The economy got half a percentage point smaller last quarter
This is why they didn’t want him back: He is a witness.
Wonder what kind of returns that would render
ICE *already* can't meet their detainment numbers without rounding up children, veterans, people born in the U.S., people with no criminal records, people at immigration hearings, plus academics and visitors with valid visas. So who do they plan to detain with >10x the budget? The answer is: you.
Spot on. This is the clearest explanation I’ve seen. It ‘s relatable, and humanizes the issue in a way everyone can understand.
Wake up Democratic Party old guard establishment. This isn’t about New York City. This is the way the wind is blowing. Step aside for young people who this country will need over the next several decades long after you are gone. Enough with your egos and the big money interests.
Assuming you’re apart of the ‘deep state’ too
KTLA - Narciso Barranco, a father to three sons who are all US Marines, pepper-sprayed and punched in the face by alleged federal immigration officers while he was working as a landscaper at an IHOP. He was then forced into the back of an unmarked car in Santa Ana.
I guess he is a stable genius
All gas no brakes
Would be amazing to see cash markets close higher tomorrow
Impeach the motherfucker.
Please media. Educate and inform Americans.
More of this please
6/21, Los Angeles: A neighborhood volunteer documenting ICE was stopped by agents in an unmarked car, surrounded, and threatened by masked agents while they filmed him on their phones.
Shocking amount of friends are getting dual citizenship…. Brain drain
Welcome to private property ass holes - GTFO ICE
What you suggest is nothing short of insanity!
Laughed way too hard at this
Why are major news outlets not covering this travesty?
Wonder if the picnic people brought enough to share. Don’t want a fyre festival situation happening.
You’re being generous 😂
Problem is they won’t do shit
Three men sit in a cell in El Salvador. The first asks the second why he has been imprisoned. He replies, "Because I criticized Elon Musk." The first man responds, "But I am here for praising Musk!" They ask the third man who has been sitting quietly in the back. He answers, "I AM Elon Musk".
Oh.
Wonder what the probability is DJT deports Musk.
Unless the government intends on nationalizing Walmart, the company should simply say they’ll fulfill their fiduciary duty to shareholders. 🤡 @thedailybeast.bsky.social $WMT www.thedailybeast.com/panicked-tru...
Well said
Disappearing an elected official.
The Trump administration is trying everything it can to dismantle our democracy. We can't let that happen. The first step to fighting back is staying informed. Get free daily updates from Democracy Docket: hubs.ly/Q03jcjqP0
We are not under invasion. There is no justification for suspending our constitutional rights. Every single American should speak out against this, loudly and forcefully.
DOGE likely to step in and stop this type of frivolous spending
This hit deeper than I was expecting
Imagine being Paul Weiss, Skadden etc. who rolled over… now they’re going to struggle to retain talent/clients for showing their true colors AND signed a deal with the devil
NEW: A federal judge raised alarm Friday that the Trump administration appeared to have deported a 2-year-old U.S. citizen to Honduras with "no meaningful process" — even as her father was fighting to keep her in the country. Details w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
This is horrific, and reflects a very real, very dangerous escalation. Even if the judge did do something wrong, arresting a judge this quickly is clearly, solely, only meant to intimidate the judiciary. Every elected GOPer should be forced on discuss this on the record.
Ousting Powell throws kerosene on this narrative…. I think the damage to dollar and treasuries has already been done. If I was a global fixed PM, I would no longer auto buy tsy and instead buy a G7 basket and spot/fwd roll to home currency.
it would be better if the stock market crashes us into a consensus to impeach and remove before the dollar and US Treasuries are permanently discredited.
Old North Church in Boston last night on the 250th anniversary of Paul Revere's ride.
Stop doing politics as usual. Take big swings. Find ways to break through. We're desperate for fighters, for brawlers. Who's next?
E. Warren is great
“Terrible things are happening outside. Poor helpless people are being dragged out of their homes. Families are torn apart. Men, women, and children are separated. Children come home from school to find that their parents have disappeared.” Diary of Anne Frank January 13, 1943
Second that