My mental model of most UK voters (which of course could be totally wrong) is: pretty smart, politically intelligent, not wonks but regular consumers of news, open to an argument from parties brave enough to make them, eager for someone to show leadership and (ideally) have charisma.

Agree. The polling on Brexit/EU tells you all you need to know; the public are well ahead of the politics and understand the trade offs. There is a big prize for the person/party that can break the omertà.