The 2026 election will likely see a weak economy meaning Trump’s approval rating (which was 42-43% on Election Day 2018 according to the late 538) will likely be below 40% by then. My prediction: Democrats win between 230 and 245 seats in the House of Reps in the 2026 election, a gain of 20-35 seats
*Correction: Democrats winning 230-245 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 election would be a net gain of 15-30 seats from the current (119th) Congress.
Related video also from 2018 talking about how lots of nervous Republicans retired ahead of that midterm election: youtu.be/VAj-Y3gr3f4?...
In fact the transition from the 115th-116th Congress had record turnover. Except something similar for the 119th-120th Congress. fivethirtyeight.com/features/ret...