Of course you can trace how ideologies form, that's the whole point here. The soil in which they grow are the material conditions in which people find themselves, the struggle between classes being the primary (but not only) driving force of those material conditions.
Fascism was first and foremost a reaction to Marxism, to radical socialist and communist movements seeking to overthrow capitalism. It remains so today, if you listen to Trump, Stephen Miller, JD and the rest. It is an attempt to preserve class rule with overwhelming force.
Not really, no, communism was just a useful foil to demonize, to justify the ideology of nationalism, machismo, and rigid social roles that they wanted for complex psychological reasons. People want things for lots of reasons besides material conditions, and that is what Marx didn't understand.
MAGA aren't doing it because they hate leftism either. They sincerely believe that white Christian men should run things like they used to do, that that is the natural order of society and without it civilization collapses. They think Marxists know this too and are deliberately trying to destroy us.
They don't hate leftism because it's a serious threat to capitalism. They hate leftism because they believe communists are trying to engineer a social collapse, in order to exploit the aftermath and institute communism. The reason they think that is because they are racist.
I understand that their rhetoric is absurdly conspiratorial, because they have no analytical tools at all. But they're acutely aware of how much they have and how much everyone else lacks. That is the background hum behind all of this.
There are plenty of wealthy people who are on our side, against the fascists, and compared to people like Elon Musk, Trump wasn't all that wealthy. He spoke to racist misogynist Christian supremacists specifically, and they responded. Stole the Republican Party right out from under former leaders.
Yes, Trump the man is an opportunist who saw his moment for personal glory and seized it. He did not create that moment. Decades of worsening inequality and failed imperialist wars created that moment. Did you read Michael Moore's essay predicting Trump's win?
None of those things bothered the people who became MAGA until a Black man became president. There's a reason they rallied behind a top spreader of the racist Birtherism conspiracy theory.
I mean this isn't an either/or, but if you listen to them they absolutely hate leftism, are terrified of communism, and want to preserve class rule at all costs. Is it always this explicitly understood, especially by the useful idiots at the bottom? No. But that is still the driving force.
There's a reason we weren't on the verge of a fascist dictatorship in the 20th century and why we are basically in one now. The crises of capitalism have driven inequality to a breaking point. The ruling class is unable and unwilling to make concessions. Brute force is all that is left. Fascism.
The reason is that we had a Black president, and he was popular globally and excellent at the job, and that drove the white supremacists insane. Then we asked to have a WOMAN president next! They decided all this progress had gone way, way too far and they wanted to roll back time to 1982.
I don't deny these factors but Obama did not resolve the crises of capitalism. Hillary Clinton ran a terrible campaign and lost the Rust Belt, she lost two-time Obama voters to Trump. Racism cannot explain why those people flipped and denied her the presidency.
Right, that part was the misogyny. But both racism and misogyny are inherent in fascism, both part of the "purifying" process.
There doesn't have to be a flashing sign called "material reasons" in the mind to explain why an idea arises at a certain time in history and why people pursue it. Material conditions set the stage for our thinking. They are not the only factor but yes, the decisive one.
JD Vance gave a hysterical speech denouncing Mamdani as a communist radical. They're all terrified of him. He's not even a communist, but he represents the slightest pushback against the uncontested rule of billionaires. This they will mobilize to destroy.