Isn't there some survivorship bias here? The Blue Dogs all represent 50/50 or even lean-red districts. If they are in Congress they are over-performers by definition.
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Only some. To wit: why can't the Squad over-perform? Why are there no progressives representing Trump districts?
aug 18, 2025, 2:17 pm • 0 0 • view
I think this is a big issue. Obviously ppl in close districts that *win* are going to be overperformers. Also candidates in swing districts are way more likely to self identify in a moderate caucus. Don’t see how you can draw actionable takeaways from this.
aug 18, 2025, 4:00 pm • 0 0 • view
The Squad wins and they aren't over-performers. Where are the progressive over-performers in purple districts who ID with the Squad? What's stopping them? (Other than the general election electorate obviously...viz, Kara Eastman)
aug 18, 2025, 4:09 pm • 0 0 • view
Your data convinces me that ppl in close districts that win over perform the national ticket (obvious) and are more likely to self-identify as moderate. What else are you concluding?
aug 18, 2025, 4:15 pm • 0 0 • view
I'm also concluding that the electoral strategy used by the Squad does not win net votes (_maybe_ more base votes, but fewer swing votes) and thus is a poor electoral strategy for use by purple-state candidates.
aug 18, 2025, 4:25 pm • 0 0 • view
Ok thanks, I appreciate the thoughtful engagement. I’d be interested to see data to this effect. I don’t think this methodology allows for a causal assessment like that.
aug 18, 2025, 4:31 pm • 1 0 • view
The anecdata (eg, Eastman, Gill, McCleod-Skinner) also indicate that progressives perform poorly in swing districts -- but would love more systematic data there.
aug 18, 2025, 4:25 pm • 0 0 • view
all due respect your original post compared blue dogs to the squad - but just showed that ppl winning in close districts (by definition) outperform. Now you are asking a different question: would the squad perform better by moderating? Also interesting, but not what you originally looked at.
aug 18, 2025, 4:14 pm • 0 0 • view
And the original post included the Blue Collar coalition -- don't sleep on them! I think it's interesting that candidates who glom onto Blue Collar/worker/econ issues over-perform in their run-of-the-mill districts.
aug 18, 2025, 4:27 pm • 0 0 • view
Yes. Interesting but could just be correlation, which is not what yglesias is suggesting.
aug 18, 2025, 4:32 pm • 0 0 • view