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The Bureau of Bryce 🦘🇦🇺 @bryce-in-cbr.bsky.social

Yep - there's a cost to build the infrastructure - the one, two or seven physical power plants and THEN there's the additional cost of ramping up a nuclear power industry (Australia has NONE) to run those plants, safely for the next 80+ years. The headline figures are, I suspect the cost to build.

apr 24, 2025, 1:08 am • 0 0

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Evan Schultheis @evanschultheis.bsky.social

Life-cycle costs are almost always factored into Nuclear Power's up front capital costs, that's a fundamental difference that's rarely discussed or distinguished. However, you are right that in terms of total logistics, that may not be correctly factored in.

apr 28, 2025, 1:50 am • 0 0 • view
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Evan Schultheis @evanschultheis.bsky.social

Conversely, I can immediately point out this analysis is severely flawed because it does not at all factor in proven cost savings from series builds. *Conservative* models of nuclear construction show 15% savings reactor-over-reactor in series builds. This doesn't factor that in.

apr 28, 2025, 1:51 am • 0 0 • view
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Evan Schultheis @evanschultheis.bsky.social

In fact a lot of their figures don't make sense. Even at a 5% industrial inflation rate (which would be high) Vogtle wouldn't cost 36.8 Billion in 2025 USD. It would cost 35.0. And industrial inflation was lower under Biden. It should be about $34 Billion.

apr 28, 2025, 1:55 am • 1 0 • view
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Evan Schultheis @evanschultheis.bsky.social

Vogtle Unit 4 saved 30% on costs over Unit 3, ($131 per MWh versus $187 per MWh LCOE) and IF we had capitalized on that immediately, we could have started a third reactor for $95 per MWh according to Bechtel Corp and the US Department of Energy. That's an extremely high savings rate for NOAK builds.

apr 28, 2025, 1:56 am • 0 0 • view
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Evan Schultheis @evanschultheis.bsky.social

Scientific studies have shown that series builds usually save about 15% reactor-over-reactor. Which means that if reactor 1 cost as much as Vogtle 3 ($29.3 billion AUD), a seventh unit as discussed in the article would be $7 billion $11.1 billion AUD.

apr 28, 2025, 2:00 am • 0 0 • view
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Evan Schultheis @evanschultheis.bsky.social

Obviously inflation increases that number, but that's true of the whole economy, not nuclear specifically. However an overnight cost of $70 per MWh is extremely realistic and in-line with what we see in countries with successful series build programs (usually ~$56-87 per MWh).

apr 28, 2025, 2:03 am • 0 0 • view
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Evan Schultheis @evanschultheis.bsky.social

Also I really want to know what their amortization rate and discount rate is for their study. It's not specified. This sounds like the whole study is extremely biased.

apr 28, 2025, 2:04 am • 0 0 • view