It's strange to say this, but I think there's a fair chance that Covid-19 may just squeak below influenza as a cause of death in the US in 2025. Quite a change, as Covid-19 was almost 5X higher than influenza in 2024. A few reasons: 1/
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Do you know if it's a different dominant flu strain this year vs last?
aug 18, 2025, 8:18 am • 1 0 • view
This past year was mostly Flu A, and about half H1N1, half H3N2. 2017-18 had unusually high A/H3N2 (thought to be more severe especially in those born before 1968), and also fairly low vaccine effectiveness.
aug 18, 2025, 8:40 am • 3 0 • view
- 2025 was worst year for flu since 2017 - better identification of flu as cause of death - Covid-19 causing less severe disease due to population immunity - lower Covid-19 prevalence due to population immunity - worse identification of Covid-19 as cause of death (though still better than flu) 2/
aug 18, 2025, 7:10 am • 9 0 • view
In terms of actual burden of disease, it's very likely that Covid-19 deaths dropped well below flu deaths in 2025. But we won't have an official estimate from CDC for several years. www.cdc.gov/covid/php/su... www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/p... 3/3
aug 18, 2025, 7:10 am • 10 0 • view