Severe covid outcomes (ED, hospitalizations, deaths) in US have been dropping--down ~2X in last year vs. previous. What about Australia? Harder to get data, but NSW publishes emergency dept visits and admissions, both also down 2X in past year vs. previous. Thick dark red line is year avg. 1/
How are Covid deaths comparing to flu deaths? Since CDC has dropped the last C I’m trying to get a glimpse into what the US winter might be like.
It's going to be close, but I think covid deaths may drop under flu deaths in 2025. Or may remain just slightly more. There's a lot of factors involved there, discussed in the thread below. 1/ bsky.app/profile/mich...
For ages less than 65 (probably even less than 75) covid has been less deadly than influenza for a while. (Also note that influenza deaths also undercounted more than covid, and if you consider *per infection*, influenza is far deadlier of course!) 2/
Implosion of the CDC and vaccine skepticism in the US are disasters. The odd thing to me is that annual vaccination rates for flu are more than twice as high as for covid, and still fairly substantial in US (46-47% of adults) though they've dropped some. Australia is similar. 3/
Who are these vaccine skeptics that won't get a covid shot but happily turn up each year for a flu shot? 4/4
Similar in NZ - roughly 2x as many flu jabs as Covid this year. I'm not sure it's scepticism so much as awareness. There's a v clear & simple message about getting flu jab each autumn (and years of habit for many). I'm not sure the message re Covid boosters is as clear & simple (though it could be)
Work-based vaccination programmes for flu may be a factor too. Not sure about others but I get reminders from my employer to get a flu jab, which I can get for free at my workplace without an appointment. Getting a Covid booster is slightly more effort
Yes, same here, I can turn up at work and get a free flu jab but need to book my covid jab at the pharmacy. I don't understand that.
My kids’ pediatrician is one. He is great on literally every other vaccine but covid.
In US for 6-23 month-olds the covid vaccination rate is 4.5% and for flu it is 63% (14 times higher!) This is a very vulnerable group for covid (and flu). I find that astounding, and yes, I think there must be a problem with what pediatricians are advising.
Absolutely. It’s part of why I haven’t started looking for a different pediatrician yet — I’m afraid to find out for sure that all of them in my vicinity are like that.
Our pediatrician was like, “It’s just a cold in kids.” Which, even if that were true, and even if my kids were not living with someone who is high risk for covid (me) — if there were a safe, effective vaccine for the common cold, I would get them that shot. Complete no brainer.
MRNA fearmongering maybe?
There's also Novavax. But yeah, I guess it is all due to the soup of misinformation we swim in.
Sorry, I re-read your response and realised you were probably asking about Australia! Deaths data in Australia is painfully slow to get published. So we won't know about this winter's covid deaths until US is going into its winter.
Thats ok. Good info either way. 🙂
Hard to say if this is just a slow year for covid or this is a continuation of the long-term trend of reduced severity since 2022. But a factor of 2 drop in one year is noteworthy! Data from: www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c... 2/
I realize that severity is an outcome, not a mechanism, but it's worthwhile to stress that most of the drop in severity is likely due to previously acquired immune memory (from vaccines or earlier infections). And that we can augment that memory with vaccines and boosts.
I agree, and I've written as much man, many times. So the people that follow me likely know this and have heard it from me already. (You can't write everything in every thread!) bsky.app/profile/mich...
I'll also note that acquired immunity is the biggest driver here, but there has also been a drop in severe outcomes in those without acquired immunity, which suggests to me a drop in prevalence as well (an indirect effect of acquired immunity at the population level). bsky.app/profile/mich...
(Eventually we will have data on covid deaths in Australia but it takes a long time.) 3/3