The better response is to use Illinois police, whether local or state, to arrest TXNG members for impersonating law enforcement, should they do any outside federal enclaves.

they probably get federalized

Can’t federalize a state guard if it’s already active on a state mission

State guard can't be federalized. They're a token force. But he could deputize people into it to build it up if he wanted to.

Exactly this. Trump could mobilize the ILARNG under title 10 (federal active duty) against the Governor’s consent. Under title 10 they would be subject to the Posse Comitatus Act (PCA). ILARNG can’t be placed on title 32 (state active duty) witnout the approval of the Governor

🤔 And the budget for that federalization is appropriated where? If they pull ahead monies for these stunts, Dems better not approve a single cent when the money runs out. Nor should they approve any “work arounds” that GQPmaga will try. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Yeah we go straight to the cool zone

No; actively deployed National Guard is the one time that they cannot be federalized. Calling them up would prevent Trump from federalizing them.

And if Pritzker and the adjutant general refuse to honor the federalization order because the order is unlawful?

Isn’t that the Cool Zone?

We passed into the cool zone a while ago. The current president ordered an attack on congress.

I think in the California case the court said its a ministerial duty and the governor doesn't have the discretion to say no.

shit ruling and ain't binding on anywhere in illinois

Also **clearly** violates anti-commandeering precedent

i mean that refusal is probably justification in and of itself to trigger the insurrection act and federalize the guard, but also is Full Cool Zone

Yeah what happens at that point is you descend into civil war

I would argue you're already at that point when one state invades another

"Cold civil war" continues to be the best description of current events

I think we've been in that state since the sixth of January, 2021

Agreed

I don't see how it is, they can cite the recent court ruling. Trump can claim insurrection all he wants.

They have never invoked the insurrection act and appear very scared to do so

It’s the perfect plan

yup they are very gunshy, but also like disobeying a federalization order is the kind of escalation that could push them into trigger it

Do the laws allowing federalization apply to anything under state control? Or just to particular formations? Like, if Pritzker raised a militia of 10,000 minutemen, would they be federalizable? Or would they be immune?

There are state militias that are not part of the national guard and are not federalizable

These state militias are also absolutely tiny

Sure but they like... Don't have to be. "We must defend Chicago from these Texans. All able-bodied loyal citizens with arms are requested to report for muster at for training on how to properly observe these Confederate scum to ensure they do not violate our laws" etc.

Throw in some reasonable pay for a couple weeks work and the like and I bet you could drum up a good sized force to ensure that the Texans behave themselves while they're the guests of Illinois.

its very weird how they seem both chomping at the bit to use the guard but don't actually want to use the "easy" legal authority, probably because they want their cake and eat it too (preferably by having some precieved disorder sufficient to trigger it in response)

The only plausible explanation is that they're probably concerned (rightly) that public opinion wouldn't be with them nationally. I agree that their ideal scenario is enough scenes of violence that they can do it and feel like they have popular backing.

oh yeah you *cannot* put the genie back in the bottle if you trigger the insurrection act, which is why they're very clearly waiting/hoping someone tries to kill some guardmen/ICE agents so they can use it with some kind of legitimacy

It's the ultimate in dog-catching-the-car scenarios. Declaring martial law is easy. But then what?

The sad thing is it's much more likely a civilian is killed, which then enters into Cool Zone territory Nicholas II style.

I'm generally of the opinion that the Cool Zone is something of a nonsense concept, but yeah: the probable result here is something much closer to (to pull from history closer to home) the Boston Massacre.

I really feel like we don’t know enough to know what exactly they’re doing here

Yeah, at that point it's entirely a question of where each individual soldier and commander's loyalties lie, because either Pritzker or Trump is getting outright disobeyed. That situation is squarely in the Cool Zone

yeah we don't even know if this more standing around the john t shitfuck federal building or the escort mission stuff that just got ruled illegal in CA

I really feel like THEY don’t know enough to know exactly what they’re doing here, either. Best guess is that the TACO principle prevails, because even these guys are scared as hell and praying that the other guy always backs down

given their reluctance to invoke the Insurrection Act, my guess is they're trying to find ways to either get states to relent or be sidelined long enough to declare victory (as with CA), or create a pretext to invoke the Insurrection Act on firmer political and legal grounds.

TACO, so he much prefers to be given power than to seize it.

"they're trying to..." Doesn't help that the nominal CiC is deeply insane and dying, whereas the delegated de facto commander is a self-loathing Nazi aroused by seeing brown people suffer, and who brazenly lies to the nominal CiC. Hard to infer motivations. My best guess: ...

1. Miller is telling Trump crime is out of control in Dem cities. 2. Fox is amplifying it. 3. DT sincerely believes this and wants a nonmilitary response that still jibes with his narcissism (all but begging JBP to beg him). 4. DT viscerally knows he's dying, is contemplating the afterlife. ...

5. And Trump's health would seem to preclude much active involvement. 6. Thus he would sincerely prefer to avoid military confrontation 7. But Miller's going to feed him any lies necessary to portray out-of-control Democratic cities. Even just DT doesn't have one consistent motivation beyond NPD.

Hopefully before Pritzker orders Illinois NG to point their guns at Texas NG, he would seek a TRO prohibiting the Texas guard from performing law enforcement duties within IL, so that if it comes to a standoff, the courts are on the correct side

They who?

I wonder what happens if the ILANG just refuse to let theTX NG leave the base. If they just blockade the road. Will TX National Guardsman be ordered to shoot IL National Guardsman?

Absent some serious violence far beyond what they've done so far, Pritzker will just make his case re: the TXNG deployment in court.

If Pritzker truly has control over his Armed Goons situation, the move is probably to have the state police shadow ICE and arrest them if they engage in anything that could plausibly be called a criminal offense or do not represent themselves as ICE.

The tailing alone probably makes it hard for them to operate.

State police and CPD are probably as heavily armed and outnumber the guard they can send.

I wonder if at some point a federal state standoff would occur

This is what I was wondering last week. bsky.app/profile/drsa...

No idea. Highly doubt that that will happen.

Fine then Illinois should call up their guard and prepare to treat the Texas guard as a foreign adversary. They should also prepare an invasion force and go occupy Dallas. Fuck playing nice, we’re passed that.

I was thinking the local police should be providing security for the parties, but who knows if they can be trusted not to help kidnap the immigrants

we enter the cool zone

For anyone who’s read Collapse, this has a very vague ring of when there started to be troubles in Soviet Armenia

idk, then Trump issues an order federalizing the IL guard. Where's it go from there?

It would be a bad idea to immediately escalate to force vs. force when nonviolent methods remain. First step should be to get the IL AG to file a suit to get the TX deployment declared unlawful, once they clearly cross a line.