15/15 We will eventually see this transformation, but I think Beijing can still postpone it for a few more years. Until then, I mostly expect excess capacity in the involuted sectors to shift mainly into other manufacturing sectors and partly into infrastructure.
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They can also start a war and shift into arms manufacturing. At some point that might be easier to justify than building excess cars, roads, etc.. I do hope they can avoid this and shift to consumption.
Assuming they want to avoid this or arent deliberately accelerating things.
This seems highly plausible to me, especially given the likelihood of a military arms race in AI/robotics.
ai-2027.com