Mainstreet Research polling has the race tighter than a few weeks ago but other pollsters generally do not. Mainstreet and Nanos do daily polls. Here are there charts. Nanos has been very consistent Apr 3. Mainstreet had the race tighter early April and then basically neck and neck since April 11.
Mainstreet's polls seem like an outlier, but if you just look at the most recent poll from a bunch of pollsters you get: Nanos LPC+5 Mainstreet LPC+2 Liason LPC+5 Pallas LPC+5 Abacus LPC+3 Research Co LPC +5 Leger LPC+3 In early March the LPC was closer to +10. It's definitely tightened.
In early April, I mean.
That's fair. 338Canada.com had peak Liberal lead of 44-37 April 5/6 while today they have 42-38. The interesting thing for me is the Conservative vote is pretty much locked in. They have been 37/38 percent the entire election. The question is whether some Liberal support drifts back to NDP/BQ.
More importantly may be where the Liberal support drifts back to NDP. I wonder if some Liberal supporters vote NDP where the NDP have the best chance to defeat the Conservatives. I can definitely see this happening.
Or vice versa. It's possible some NDP supporters are still telling pollsters they support the party, but they'll vote Liberal on election day because they see it as the best way to stop Poilievre. We'll see in a few days.
Mainstreet always go outside the consensus. Did it for the BC election recently too. They get to claim they were smarter than everyone if they’re right, but just ignore if they’re wrong. I don’t take them seriously.
Liaison Strategies also has daily polling data and it has been very consistent too. If you believe Mainstreet polling it is a neck and neck race and a Liberal minority is a greater possibility. If you believe other pollsters Liberals have a 5+ point lead and a high likelihood of a Liberal majority.
Provincial breakdowns suggest the path for a Conservative victory are vanishingly small unless there's a huge polling error. My understanding is typically even when the Con vote is undercounted, it's when they're running up the score in already dark blue areas (rural areas from BC through MB).