Blue line is Continuing Unemployment Claims - people who haven't been hired after week one of filing. Green line is Initial Unemployment Claims - people filing for the first time. Highest level for continuing since November 2021. Could be nothing, could be something. What do you think?
Another data point showing a fragile but not (yet) broken economy. What’s weird is that AI being a massive success OR a massive failure from here, would be the wrong jenga block to pull. But AI could keep going on like it is with massive capex and minimal productivity gains for years longer.
I think incompetent republican presidents typically end up creating a financial crisis
This. Maybe markets are fine for a couple years but we are for damn sure whistling past the graveyard. Trump and his crew are absolute morons.
Not great, Bob!
Ordinarily i would think it's something, but i just haven't seen the bad news in the data. I was expecting job losses and inflation for both April and May but it's not there yet.
I think it’s worth watching.
Yes
David Kelly sees a creeping slowdown. This definitely doesn’t refute that.
I think you're right!
Let's just say my US exposure is not entirely but for the most part, short-term trading these days.
As always, it isn't a thing until it is. Not gonna guess about it, but I would be curious to know how much of this might be attributable to A.I. already having an impact on the job market...are we already there?
Government workers haven’t hit yet and are getting paid until September, under the voluntary “retirement” plan.
I'll take Something for $1,000, Josh.
On our podcast two weeks ago, Jens Nordvig told us 255,000 on initial claims is the trigger that stocks finally react negatively to. Also probably gets the Federal Reserve in motion. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-u5m...
US manufacturing jobs probably dropping like a rock as input cost skyrocket. US shale is absolutely screwed.
Am surprised the firings haven't been higher, but everyone is fresh off the pandemic & remember how hard it is to find talent again. Normal response is just no new hires.
and they're cutting the coffee carts and the free lunches
And the work from home options.
