Also bsky.app/profile/mega...

That plus being the Trump Candidate is…not a winning combo for any New York City politician.

Tired: Why won’t Democrats endorse Zohran? Wired: He’s already gotten the endorsement from the Party that really matters

For what it's worth, the polls do say Cuomo would win a one-on-one. I don't know if I trust them, but them's the numbers.

Only 1 poll (sponsored by a landlords group) in the past month has shown that, while a few others show the opposite. Also, we just did this in June & it turned out that polling pretty massively overestimated Cuomos strength, so probs worth treating anything showing him close skeptically.

All true! I don't by any means think the fix is in. I'm just noting that polls do at least suggest it won't be a walk for Mamdani if Cuomo is the de-facto Republican nominee.

I suspect that if it did become a one on one race (still pretty unlikely), polling pre that wont look like polling post that bc people will have reactions to how that came about. But again, probs all moot bc I really dont see Adams or Sliwa dropping bc of who they are.

My prediction would be Adams does, Sliwa doesn't, but whatever happens after that depends more on the events of the next two months than people might anticipate (e.g. how do candidates respond when Trump sends the National Guard to Manhattan).

I mean, who knows, but Adams out of all of them thinks that he is divinely commanded to be doing this and guys like that tend to not pack up shop. But hey, crazier things have happened I guess.

Also, and not a minimal factor: he really, really likes money.

[guy sweating while looking at two buttons meme]

Genuine question, did any of the big polls say that? I think i only saw one from the real estate guild but would be curious if the big polls said that.

That's the only one that polled head-to-head that I've seen, and yeah: that's why I say I'm skeptical. That said, the other polls all do suggest Adams and Sliwa together would give Cuomo at least a minimal edge, so I think it's fair to assume it's competitive at least.

Oh man I think I just got their latest, from Clear Insights. Went very hard on the arguments against Mamdani and Cuomo, and if there were any chance that as a M voter I would consider switching to C or A, but didn't test the 1:1 matchup.

Not that it really matters unless C is willing to murder Sliwa and run on the R line but

Right, I actually think it's far more likely that the eminently bribable Adams can be enticed out of the race than that Sliwa can.

Sliwa is in this for one reason - to get people to pay attention to Sliwa. Dropping out ruins all of that.

I don't even know if it's attention so much as the fact that, while completely nuts, he's completely incorruptible and genuinely committed to his campaign platform (believing he is a Frank Miller vigilante come to life).

Sucks for them that they nominated him in a possibly-winnable year but: sucks to suck.

Irony of ironies, they didn't field a real candidate because they didn't think anyone could beat Cuomo.

I wonder if anyone would notice that tbh!