I wouldn’t say never but not in a capitalist society at least.

Why not? Employment is a side effect of inefficiency, something that capitalists look to optimise out. (Note the irony that thing that makes capitalism popular/“successful” is thing they want to remove). A tech improves, trend will be to make more money from IP, faster, using fewer people.

Very clear to me that an event horizon is coming, maybe soon, where there with be a clear parting of success of IP owners and everyone else. Capitalism great at creating “Bullshit Jobs” (cf David Graeber), but it seems to me that the supply of new jobs will dry up, leaving tending the machines.

In short: Capitalism is on a path to succeed to the point that it no longer benefits the overwhelming majority of the population. Either we prepare for that (UBI), or we’ll see mass unrest in society. And we currently seem very bad at preparing for things.

Since capitalism rewards only a focus on the short term and is currently tearing down the institutions that allow humans to plan and prepare for the long term, I am definitely worried that things will have to get really ugly before they get any better.

Only alternative is that there is an explosion in innovation powered by the new tech, which will create enough new jobs to fill void. However, world is already advancing too quick for many (cf social media), so an even faster acceleration will disorientate most people.

In the short term there's probably going to be an issue explosion of new jobs for people to fix up the messes made by "ai". But longer term it seems like a trend towards minimal human labour (which is, actually, a good thing if we prepare for it).

The trouble is AI is being built by idiots for idiots. It won’t get smarter.

I'm not bullish on AI, but, we don't need AI to automate the vast majority of jobs. Just complex heuristic systems which we are plenty capable of building. AI talk has brought the discussion to the foreground, but the technological march towards labour elimination is already well underway.

This has been the repeated promise since the Luddites. How many times does that lie need to fail before people realise it’s just a fantasy. Not saying it’s impossible in the future. Just impossible to have full automation and parasitic Billionaires.

How many street lamp lighters do you know? How many tanners? How many telephone operators? Scythe men? Technology has been eliminating entire categories of jobs for a fair while. The more advanced the tech the more jobs it can eliminate. It's happening and accelerating. Eventually it'll come for you

I’m open-minded to this point of view. My problem is that as the new tech allows more to be done by fewer people, in which areas are new jobs going to appear? We’re now seeing job loses among the white collar jobs created by computerisation. As tech invades each area by turn, what’s left?

Case in point. Grok.