Trump has faked us out on this tariff stuff so many times that even a lot of folks who might have listened to warnings in the past are going to be inured to them now. And a lot of us who have done that sort of warning have quieted at this point, because you can only Chicken Little for so long
The best you can hope is that he will stroke out or succumb to a major coronary. The cult may then lose steam as #TACO is the rank glue that holds it all together & once he pegs out people may wake up to what was happening, this a slim hope.
This is the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf and the wolf is here.
Hm say more if you don't mind
I mean that the consequences of his trade, deportation, business interference, and government destruction policies are starting to be felt. It’s unavoidable, and this is when economists said we should expect it to begin. People are going to face the reality of higher prices, fewer options, etc.
In this formulation of the metaphor, the boy is a more malicious force. He kept crying wolf until people no longer took him seriously, so they’d be caught off guard when he let the wolf into the village.
honestly i am so confused at this point as to what’s in effect now and what isn’t 🫠
He’s the boy who cried wolf and also the wolf
I have done my half assed "preparing"; my proudest achievement so far is my backyard chickens who are not laying eggs yet but it makes me happy to see them every day
Like a game of Jenga with lots of pieces pulled out but still standing. Will it collapse with the next move? Also for stockpiling I’ve been trying to think tchotchkes that come from china, clothes, shoes, home furnishings. Food and paper products will go up In Price but should still be available.
HVAC filters and high quality masks are big ones I think. If only as a hedge against tariffs-related inflation
📌
At some point in the near future: “What are all these blue shards doing all over the place?” “The sky fell.” “It…fell? Why did no one warn us?” 🤦♀️
The sky probably is falling, actually, but it is doing so more slowly than the worst case scenario had it. Truly I have no sense at this point which pieces are breaking, it just seems very clear that the entire thing is structurally unsound.
I think we've been seeing the impact in manufacturing for months. Companies dependent on imported materials and uncertain about their export market are slowing production, not hiring people on, limiting non-production expenditures...
In ag & meat packing, Trump's hitting them from 2 directions: tariffs that may affect their international markets, and terrorizing immigrants, who are a huge percentage of their workforce. JBS in my region just had work visas cancelled for 200 out of 2000 employees. And this is after ICE raids.
So the sky is falling, but in certain pockets. People in the small towns that grow up around manufacturing/ meat packing are going to be feeling it pretty hard. Supporting business, from restaurants to gas stations to store, will suffer that loss of local income/ people.
I'm bracing for it and grateful for any extra time we get to prepare at this point, but I think unfortunately the decline is going to be grinding and gradual until it isn't, and I have no idea how long it will take us to get to that particular cliff.
A good friend of mine is a professional disaster recovery expert, and the one thing they recommend above all else, is community. For every shortfall you encounter, you can (hopefully) lean on your community, and they, you. You’re doing all that you can, and it’s all the right stuff. Good luck 🫡
I was just wondering about this. I did a lot of assessment and prep earlier this year but it's not clear what happened or will happen and everyone got kind of quiet about it (those who ever talked about it at all in the first place).
Unfortunately there is little we can do to prep for a full out recession or depression, which is coming.
Yes but I was wondering specifically about tariff-related shortages and supply chain issues that haven't come to fruition yet in the way some, including me, were bracing for and I haven't seen anyone really talk about it in a while.
I think the initial scare made people in charge realize if the tap turned off too quickly it might actually provoke response from the general public. I think it will be a much more insidious, slow erosion. Prices going up to just below a breaking point. Occasional shortages. Submission vis anxiety.
*via anxiety. A constant dread of worrying “Do I have enough? What happens next? Will my family be ok when it does?” They’re counting on us being cowed and they’re not far wrong. They want us demoralized.
I just bought a LOT of toilet paper, paper towels, Tide, tooth paste because P&G said they are raising prices on all that. Saved a bunch of meds by taking 1 less pill a day and have 3 month supply now. If I see the ports in LA slow I know to buy a lot of things. Probably will be like covid
Thank you! There was a lot of really convincing info about "no cargo ships crossing the Pacific" a few months back, but I haven't noticed any disruption around here.
There were barely any ships in LA and Long Beach ports a few months ago, now the ports seem busier, but retailers were hurrying to buy before the tariffs hit. There are tons of trucks on the freeway to the ports now so who knows .
My Macbook Pro is in the shop for a repair that the Genius Bar told me would take about 3 days. It's been there 11 days, and they're still waiting for a part. Seems like Apple would _have_ parts for a Macbook, under normal circumstances?
We did some minor prep. Buying extra medical supplies, ones used often, for my parents who can’t do without. Switched script to 90 day supply where possible. Dried beans, rice, tp, instant coffee, dried creamers... Household things like lightbulbs, fuses, dish soap. Nothing we don’t already use.
And probably no one else will be able to tell, either, now that Trump is actively compromising the relevant data.
Without an initial material shock (bare shelves, ruined Xmas) I don't know how many people are really going to register what is happening here. Hell, I mostly only register it in the most general terms, and I have a background in economic justice work and been paying unusually close attention.
I was raised by parents who went through the Depression in the rural South. They believed that it could come back, and they lived that way. It seemed kind of crazy in the 80s and 90s, but their example (and fear) was seared into my brain.
There have been times that this fear has been maladaptive for me, but I understood their response to their trauma more during the pandemic. We all need to be self-sufficient for a minimum of several days to several weeks. See the people trapped in their apartments during Helene.
I look at real events, such as Helene, and determine if I could survive that event and what I should change. We are dealing with a deeply unstable person. We could wake up tomorrow with a war that makes all of your preps brilliant. The danger is real....whether the cause is tariffs or a war or ???
"'How did you go bankrupt?' 'Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.'" ~ Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Even so do empires.
I'm running out of ideas for preparing too. Like should I liquidate investments I'm lucky enough to have? I have considered making sure I have 3 yrs living expenses liquid, but inflation would dent that. Finally look into visas elsewhere? Convince my HOA we need veggie gardens and chickens?
At some point you've done what prepping you can do and you just pay attention to consistent voices of subject expertise and live your life. There's only so much that's knowable, at some point there are too many uncertainties. And everyone's risk tolerance is different.
Yeah. I have a good pantry, nothing I'm worried about needing if supply chains go wonky. My biggest worry is either losing my job in a market crash (scars from the dotcom!) or finding myself needing to get tf out of the country. I don't know how I can prepare for either really.
The full weight of this is already breaking people pretty fast now. The full impact of all of this is going to be far far more profound than alot of people understand
I'm from Brazil and can tell you he's not faking it. He retreated on many products but he has set tariffs up to 50% on beef and orange juice. And he sanctioned the brazilian supreme court Justice who's overseeing Bolsonaro's cases and told that if the government doesn't interfere on the
supreme court trial against Bolsonaro he won't negotiate on tariffs
I have been tweeting & warning people about #TraitorTrump for over a decade Sometimes I feel exhausted but that cannot be an excuse. It is time to speak up. Can't give up now He's a sadistic monster that everyone should be vary of. No one is immune to his sadism or off limits Everyone is a target
Tariffs do raise money. Consumers pay for it. I guess we are paying for the new ballroom @ White House
He seems to be carving out exceptions, or various accommodations, according to which lobbies bribe him the loudest and where polls of those very few constituencies he feels matter may take him. I believe his chaotic tariff scheme in final analysis a means for him to amplify grift and graft
Everyone who is paying attention knows there's a very hard road ahead. Between climate change, political chaos in multiple countries, wars both ongoing and imminent, and an unsustainable economy, I think it's nearly inevitable that we'll be in a catastrophic polycrisis by 2030. But the path is hazy.