I think one factor that's hard to gauge is the degree of loyalty the GOP and vichy media would show to Vance, in the event of such an unthinkable tragedy 😐 To what extent will their need to hang together result in de-facto support of Vance as Anointed Successor?

But to speculate unreasonably, I suspect Vance is not only un-electable but un-nominatable, as one of Trump's sons, most likely Don Junior, would claim the ticket. Then Don would go up on the debate stage against the winner of the Pritzker/Newsom primary battle and I do not envy Don Junior.

I don’t think he’s especially competent, but a particularly mercurial orangutan is more competent than Trump