If the Ukraine war comes to an uneasy stalemate or frozen conflict a Belarusian annexation then becomes a convenient victory to celebrate. Realistically who is going to support Belarus to push back when all will be weary from Ukraine. They have no other meaningful allies to turn to.
The minute Lukashenko dies- and he’s not in great health- Belarus will cease to exist as an independent state. Putin is just biding his time until then.
Почему Белоруссия независима, по тому что от нее ничего не зависит
Do you know why Belarus is independent ? Because nothing depends on them
If the invasion stops it's a bit like the end of WW1 scenario for the Russians. Very dangerous situation for the Russian regime.
