Which means he’ll be down by 12 by the election

With Ohio that is possible.

Ohio is really too far gone. Hard to believe just 13 years ago it voted for Obama, now it’s the new West Virginia.

He lost by just 3.6% last year, while Kamala lost it by 11.2%. The effect where the Dem incumbent polls well early then loses the election ALSO applies the other way around sometimes. In 2018, the Nevada Senate race and TONS of house races in California were good examples of this.

Hmmm…interesting numbers.

It is.