I really wonder how bad the election denialism will be if the GOP realizes their core third of US adults that consistently votes for them is slipping. I've been expecting 2026 and/or 2028 to end with a move that makes Jan 6th look peaceful but am unsure just how bad it can get.

For whom?

for them lol

Good!

i've beat this drum repeatedly but republicans have an extremely nasty looking political geography and vote density problem. They had a path in 2024 where they could offset gains in the suburbs by drawing blood from a stone in the rurals and making gains with conservative minorities in cities BUT

not really replicable in the long term, unless hispanics are just *that* conservative now in which case we are, in fact, screwed

As evinced by TX vs CA, even similar Hispanic demos can go differently based on a complexity of factors. FL proves this even more. The question is two fold: 1) Does Trumps economic and imm policy turn Hispanics towards dems? (Jury's out) 2) If they do, do they get organized like CA latino dems did?

i'd say on that first point: the jury isn't out on that, not completely, given how his approval polling with hispanics has cratered

i think they've sealed in a major regression of those urban swings and likely will accelerate suburban swings (and god willing we start seeing the suburbs that have stayed red start turning blue too)

will be very curious to see how Spanberger and Sherrill do in those suburban areas that we've yet to crack into

i think some of their gains with hispanic are here to stay because of negative polarization but like not all of them and much more importantly there is so, so SO much room to drop in the suburbs, because there are a lot of suburbs that are still pretty damn red but trending purple

I'm not entirely sure of that given the last several months of things but we'll see

for example WI-GOP is truly fucked if the WOW counties fall

most of the suburbs throughout the midwest and south haven't really started to charge left, but very much could and that's like a electoral equivalent of a ticking thermonuclear bomb

Big if, but 2026 will tell us if we’re back on track for this

2025 gubernatorials probably also a decent weathervane

yeah we just don't have really good data about how the electorate is gonna respond to all this shit

Super brilliant political strategist here, but seems like turnout is the word.

“You miss 100% of the votes you don’t cast.” ~Michael Scott

perhaps the most noticeable ticking timebomb is the Texas Triangle

What do you think could cause this to happen?

Significant economic pain.

Wichita area suburbs becoming like Johnson County while JC votes like Washington would transform Kansas politics. Probably is the Wichita suburbs are all less college educated than JC suburbs, but if just Wichita city rockets left……… Combine that with rural losses and KS becomes a swing state

yeah IA is ironically probably the midwestern state least well situated to get funky because it doesn't have A Urban Center

but even in IA you still have headroom to grow in the suburbs bustling around DM, but just not as juicy a prize as Omaha or Indianapolis or KC or St. Louis or WOW

Writing from Omaha, it very much feels like we've got blue momentum. Those Trump signs are disappearing. I also think that this redistricting push could burn a lot of GOP reps. You don't shift one district w/o weakening another, and a shift in voting could erase a slim margin.

also like every Ohio suburbs

If I've learned one thing from Ohio, its that its always worse than you think.

The Cincy suburb counties are like, there is theoretically a lot of uh, % growth, depending how stuff goes.

DSM is the fastest growing metro in the Midwest percentage wise. like, if they lose dallas county and/or ankeny, they'll lose state wide. the question of whether the Mississippi River communities ever come back is interesting. I dont think its impossible though

I think Kansas is more long term, like potentially competitive in 2036-2040. But people are sleeping on the country swung 6 pts right overall and KS basically didn’t move.

GOP has basically maxed out in its rural areas but is losing ground in all major population centers. Problem for the Dems is they basically have to consistently pull out Reagan numbers in the northeast to drown out the rurals. Their margins in the Wichita area also have to be good

Indianapolis suburbs did but the rest of the state is making up for it.

yep, which is why she only did a point worst despite a 6 point national swing *and* thoere is still so much room to fall in those counties

Trump is actually having trouble getting Braun to go for gerrymandering, because they're all very worried it'll backfire.

Which is hilarious, because they would only get one more seat, and it's held by Andre Carson, who has been reelected comfortably for years, despite being a black Muslim who is openly pro-Palestine. Even with a gerrymander, it's still possible he keeps his seat.

They would go after Mrvan but it's not as easy as it looks, he's a pretty big overperformer and the bluest areas are close the the shore and the border with Illinois, quite far away from bordering districts.

like most suburbs in red states are still pretty fucking red and just vote density wise if they start to slip places that are now ruby red GOP heartlands start turning purple f a s t

imo the real deciding axis of 2026 is probably the suburbs (because there is so much room to fall), followed by urban regression (because they are vote dense), followed by rural regression (lot of them but not vote dense but little margins add up in a lot places)

Did the corn subsidies actually get cancelled? I’m thinking the whole “no more corn syrup” thing paired with the screwworm apocalypse may see rural areas bounce hard to wanting the FDA and NIH around by midterms. I know farmers in my state got hit hard by the funding cuts already.

Honestly the Atlanta burbs and WOW still trending left despite everything last year should be a waking nightmare for the Wisconsin and Georgia GOPs

I think he can fool rural areas for a a while because there is so little social cohesion and the economies in towns are already terrible. In suburbs—once house start going up for foreclosure it’s obvious and real bad

I grew up one town over from Waukesha County (one of the WOW Counties) and it was Scott Walker's assembly district and pretty purple when I was in high school and last election Kamala won better than 2:1

Waukesha has made some dizzying swings in my lifetime. The school district there has been a piñata.

Also, we haven’t had the full ICE press in Wisconsin, which will turn off a lot of farmers who just lost their labor force

I actually disagree with this. This is like an almost exact repeat of Prop 187 in California. Like the exact same. I’d put it at 60-70%.