like its one thing if it had been a fairly close win with a bunch of shitfight swings on both sides, they basically pasted us everywhere and it was barely enough to get them over the finish line
Replies
kinda reverse 2020 in terms of fragility, but like 2020 wasn't that tidal wave of swings right, it was a mishmash, is what i'm saying basically
aug 31, 2025, 10:38 pm • 86 1 • view
not exactly the same style does show how different the swing maps were
aug 31, 2025, 10:40 pm • 74 1 • view
Tbh, seeing those Iowa swings make me wonder how gettable it really is but not like there are a lot of other options
aug 31, 2025, 10:58 pm • 20 0 • view
It really depends on the candidate. Iowa voters are fickle.
aug 31, 2025, 11:02 pm • 2 0 • view
the issue with Iowa is there isn't a central dominating urban agglomeration for dems to ride the tiger on like KC or Omaha, you have DM but it just doesn't have the mass
sep 1, 2025, 2:16 am • 19 1 • view
Iowa is basically more religious Wisconsin without Madison or Milwaukee, which explains exactly why its the way it is
sep 1, 2025, 2:21 am • 16 1 • view
Iowans have a strong “live and let live” ethos. They’d totally go for the right kind of Dem who has zero “coastal elite” vibes.
sep 1, 2025, 2:24 am • 3 0 • view
The thing is, if Dems manage to flip the Senate, they're probably walking away with a >53 seat majority, just because there are a bunch of reach states with similar partisanship:TX, FL, OH, IA, AK, KS, NE* They're either getting 49-50 seats (no majority) or >53 (majority)
sep 1, 2025, 5:02 am • 2 0 • view
i think another way of saying this is "we had a thimble of swings tip our way and it was almost enough to outweigh a bucket of swings their way," which is worse precarious to be in than "they had a lot of swings toward them and we had a lot of swings our way and we won narrowly"
aug 31, 2025, 10:51 pm • 72 1 • view
yeah - it turns out they still had a little more room to max out the rurals. But if they are truly maxed now and 24 was a blip in the leftward suburban trend (my theory, at least in the latter)... its ominous af as you said
aug 31, 2025, 11:02 pm • 25 1 • view
its genuinely impressive how much blood they've drawn from the stone in the rurals
sep 1, 2025, 2:17 am • 14 1 • view
i do think they eventually might run into an issue where they can juice the *margins* a bit more but the *raw votes* start tappering off
sep 1, 2025, 2:18 am • 15 1 • view
ding ding ding i agree
sep 1, 2025, 2:44 am • 0 0 • view
Especially since the Midwest rurals are bleeding pop fast
sep 1, 2025, 3:13 am • 3 0 • view
they really need those black and Hispanic trends to stick. if they dont, boy oh boy.
aug 31, 2025, 11:03 pm • 13 0 • view
Part of 2024 was chronic sexism/racism, and part of it was the same woes that dragged on every incumbent government that had to deal with 4% post-covid inflation. Trump promised he'd eliminate inflation. That hasn't happened. In fact, it's worse now.
sep 1, 2025, 1:24 am • 3 0 • view
Sexism is what gave Trump a few Black & Latino guys. ICE attacks, & Trump focus on pulling Fed jobs from DC (which he sees as majority Black though it hasn't been in decades) & putting them in what they think are white areas, is what's driving them away from Trump/GOP: www.npr.org/2025/08/13/n...
sep 1, 2025, 2:41 am • 0 0 • view
Hmm, almost like "people everywhere hated inflation" explains the situation better than "nation votes for white ethno state".
aug 31, 2025, 11:04 pm • 2 0 • view
You know looking at these two maps it really does look more link an unwinding than a real erosion. I want to see the 2016 -> 2020 map! I bet that looks way better for dems.
aug 31, 2025, 11:02 pm • 3 0 • view
2016 to 2020 is the left one!
sep 1, 2025, 2:17 am • 2 0 • view
Sorry, typo. 2016 -> 2024. Big difference lol
sep 1, 2025, 3:03 am • 2 0 • view