Youre not wrong. The problem is that it doesnt matter how obvious it is the plan won't work. The problem is that ni matter how dumb the plan is, theyll keep moving forward. This war was never winnable. Yet the human shrapnel left in its wake is the same.
russia might have "won" the war by only taking the current Kherson/Zap. land they occupy now (solidifying Crimean occupation and giving them the Sea of Azov) and then playing defense (resulting in minimal casualties and equipment losses). Sadly, the rest of the world wouldn't have done anything.
Instead, they bit off more than they could chew. In addition to the problems listed above, they pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO, gave EU time to build its defense industries, and have started selling themselves to China..
See I think thats the problem. Putin has a specific dream built around Russian imperial glory. He doesnt just want those states, he wants his Empire. The premise was flawed from the start. Those Russians in Kerson etc arent the reason, they are an excuse to justify his ambitions.
You gotta look at it in terms of hubris. He first tried and failed to take Ukraine with influence campaigns and by using American firms (Paul Manafort specifically) to buy Presidents that would hand them Ukraines soverignty. He's getting older and wants his legacy. Hes not a rational actor.
Agreed. putin is a psychopath.