New preprint. What caused the 2020 spike in violence? Two events are often cited: the pandemic and George Floyd's murder. I investigated using daily incidence of various violent crimes in Minneapolis and it seems pretty clear that the cause was Floyd's murder.
This aligns with my study of the effects of police-involved deaths before the pandemic. My takeaway from both is: the mechanism isn't de-policing, it's people no longer trusting police and turning to informal justice to resolve disputes. IOW, police violence causes community violence.