The 2030 census brings bad news for Democrats. Reapportionment could flip 9 House seats and the road to the White House gets much tougher. In 2028 a Democrat can get elected President by winning MI, WI & PA. In 2032 the Democrat loses even if he/she wins MI, WI, PA and NV.
Don't these calculations assume roughly the same turnout of voters each year (i.e. non-voters continuing to be non-voters)?
This may also be part of why they’re focusing so much more on blue states for ICE raids and holding them in red states since those numbers count in a census.
Oh, and make DC and Puerto Rico states.
Not if we eliminate the electoral college.
Even if some blu states lose electoral votes, & red states gain some,nothing guarantees all the people who relocated will be Repub voters. President is statewide voting. Can't gerrymander it. Same as US Senators or State Governors. Dems can still win a "red" state & all the electoral votes w/ 50.1%
Almost like we should've banned gerrymandering years ago. Who would've thought.
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Check out the @nytimes.com for an interactive feature where you can run the post-census Electoral College numbers. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Plus there is this to contend with…. open.substack.com/pub/lincolns...
It means Dems will have to pour more resources into different states than in years past. Ohio & Florida used to be essential to winning the White House but that hasn't been the case in 20+ years. The good news is Dems have won AZ, NC & GA within the past 2 decades so winning is absolutely feasible.
I thought there was something in the Constitution that says this can only be done every 10 years?
It is every 10 years. The last time it was done was 2020.
rubbish
