3/ Initial claims were marginally below 2023-24 levels, as well as the benchmark. I expect (low confidence) that they'll drift down for the remainder of the year, barring any large natural disasters like the hurricanes we saw last year.
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4/ The period of lower layoffs was brief, but no signs of layoffs increasing either.
aug 28, 2025, 1:00 pm • 1 0 • view
5/ A recap of next-week revisions for continuing claims. In all likelihood this week's 1.954M will change to 1.945M next week.
aug 28, 2025, 1:01 pm • 3 0 • view
6/ The nowcast for "unemployment due to permanent layoff" is for little change in August from July.
aug 28, 2025, 1:01 pm • 3 0 • view