It was quite an effort to achieve a consistent comparison of five very different constraining methods using 125 (!!) pseudo-observational datasets. Huge thanks to Chris O'Reilly for leading this!! See below to get an idea of the amount of data involved. 3/🧵
Main takeaway: for summer temperature changes the methods are very consistent even though they base their constraints on quite diverse information. Combining them into a multi-method constraint that can draw on all available information also shows some promise. 4/🧵
For precipitation and in winter method skill is much more of a mixed bag with only few consistent skill improvements compared to the unconstrained case. Constraining precipitation on a regional scale should therefore be treated with some caution. 👉 rdcu.be/dFXv5 5/🧵
Finally, we also apply all five methods and the multi-method to real observations and use them to constrain projections of European temperature changes between 1995-2014 and 2041-2060 👇👇 6/🧵
Many thanks to the entire team for this collaborative effort! In a sense, this study was a follow-up of earlier work where we compared a similar set of methods but could not make statements about their skill. So its really great to see this come together now! doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...