The working assumption is GB becomes a net exporter of elec (lots of variables so not certain) in the 2030s even with wider decarb. But gross gen and actual consumption are not going to be the same mix.
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Also it's less important to generate 200% of demand on occasional very windy days, and much more important to generate 70% of demand for weeks and weeks of moderate weather. That means over-sizing the turbines, but not so much over-sizing the wires. So surplus wld be curtailed rather than exported
sep 1, 2025, 12:36 pm • 1 0 • view
To export power, our price has to be lower than other countries are willing to generate at. Some neighbours (Fra, Ger) have shown willing to generate at zero or negative price (nuclear, PV). There's no benefit to us exporting at negative price. So I think we won't export much.
sep 1, 2025, 12:43 pm • 1 0 • view
UK wind should be somewhat anticorrelated to central Europe. Sustained -ve will be a bigger issue for F N than for UK. Ger has a lot of price insensitive R atm but as in most places that will change
sep 1, 2025, 12:57 pm • 1 0 • view
Especially if ScotWind and Beyond 2030 transmission gets built out
sep 1, 2025, 1:33 pm • 2 0 • view
You'll always have UK/Ire facing typical westerly winter storms hours to days ahead of most of Europe (they may hook north & miss it altogether as you well know) So a lot of reason to think there is a natural export there Far north projects does ~ mitigate a block pushing storms north
sep 1, 2025, 1:46 pm • 0 0 • view