Here's an updated summary of the likely final turnout in each state compared to 2020. AFAICT, it looks like turnout surpassed 2020 in 6 of the 7 swing states. The one where it came behind? Pennsylvania...which is also the only state where the Senate Dem is behind.
I haven’t stopped thinking about this chart. 🤯
And CA
The GA number is WILD. 🧐
📣 UPDATE: --Popular vote gap has shrunk to 3.2M (2.1%) --Final pop gap will likely be 1.7 - 2.4M (1.1 - 1.6%) --Harris now 9.5M behind Biden; will likely end up 5.2 - 5.5M behind --Total turnout now 148.9M w/another ~7.3M still left to count
Meanwhile, Bob Casey is now less than 35K behind in PA, with ~100K ballots still left to count. He'd need over 2/3 of them to break his way to pull off a win. Collectively, the 5 swing state GOP Senate candidates are now 557K behind Trump.
PA Dems mounted a pretty extensive ballot cure outreach on behalf of Casey, so I wouldn't be surprised if the outstanding ballots are disproportionately his (though probably not a 2/3 margin).
Damn so close
The deadline to cure has already passed.
📣 UPDATE: --Popular vote gap still 3.2M (2.2%) --Final pop gap will likely be 1.8 - 2.5M (1.2 - 1.6%) --Harris now 9.2M behind Biden; will likely end up 5.1 - 5.5M behind --Total turnout now 149.4M w/another ~6.9M still left to count
Another update: --Pop vote gap down to 3.1M (2.1%) --Final pop gap likely 1.8 - 2.5M (1.2 - 1.6%) --Harris now less than 9.0M behind Biden --6.5M ballots left to count nationally This includes 2.4M in CA, 500K in NY, 400K in WA, 360K in NJ, 350K in NJ, 300K in MD & 250K in OR.
📌
Thanks CG.
No mandate!
Here's where things stand as of this morning: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... --Pop vote has broken 150M, ~8.3M behind 2020 --Still ~6.2M left to count; will likely end up ~156.3M, down ~2.1M from 2020 --Pop vote gap down to 3.1M (2.1%); will likely end up between 1.9 - 2.5M (1.2 - 1.6%)
I’ll be interested in seeing analyses of how much that 2.1 million drop is due to the ease of voting in 2020.
--Harris 8.9M behind Biden; will likely end up 5.2 - 5.5M behind --Trump now 1.3M ahead of 2020; will likely end up 3.7 - 4.1M ahead --Swing state GOP Senate candidates collectively 562K behind Trump (5.3%) --Casey now 29.3K behind McCormick, w/~100K provisionals/etc supposedly left to count
Via CNN's data, here's my best estimates of how many votes are remaining in each state. The "99%" is a bit misleading since it really just means there's some unknown number of provisionals/etc. remaining, not all of which may be eligible to be counted:
This is pretty much my final update to this thread: ~900K ballots left to count nationally. Harris now has 74.6M She's down ~2.5M (1.6%) in the popular vote. Will likely end up ~2.4M (1.5%) Total turnout is up to 154.2M It's down ~4.2M from 2020; will likely end up down ~3.3M.
I so want her to hit that 75 million vote mark because it’s a great round number calling card for her to point at if she wants to run in 2028.
75 million votes nationwide means nothing if she can’t win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Are we the only industrialized nation that takes this long to count votes? This is insane.
Thanks! Now if only the mainstream media would stop referring to this as a mandate and a shellacking.
How many ballots are left out there to be counted??
Maybe 70k or so
K
