(note: I know the layout of the graph for CA looks different; I've decided to go with "stacked" columns instead of side by side as it looks cleaner & clearer to me; it's still displaying the same data, however--Blue = net 2025 benchmark premiums; Orange = net 2026 benchmark premiums)
🚨 OK, NEXT UP: THE BIG ONE: FLORIDA. 🚨 cc: @davidjolly.bsky.social @maxwellfrost.bsky.social acasignups.net/ira-subsidy-...
I wish I could feel sorry for low information white voters that voted against themselves and for the top 1%, but I just can't. I don't.
Officially, over 4.8 MILLION Floridians enrolled in #ACA individual market plans this year--a stunning 20% of the TOTAL population. Of those, ~4.6 million are subsidized; ~250K are unsubsidized either on or off the exchange. Realistically, the total is likely more like 4.5 million at the moment.
Take a closer look at those numbers, especially the percentages in the right-hand column. Statewide, ~20% of Florida's total population is enrolled in ACA plans. In some House districts, however, it's higher. Much higher. Check out the last three:
FL-26: Mario Diaz-Balart (R): 31.6% FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (R): 39.5% FL-28: Carlos Gimenez (R): 37.0% That's right: Nearly 40% of FL-27's ENTIRE POPULATION relies on #ACA exchange coverage. That's nearly 300,000 people in Salazar's district alone.
Officially, Florida #ACA market carriers are hoping to increase gross premiums by an average of 24% next year. (I had to make an educated guess as to the actual enrollment among some carriers since this is considered a "trade secret" under Florida law if they don't want to publish it publicly).
But once again, as much as being hit with a 24% health insurance premium spike would suck for those currently paying full price in the first place, that's nothing compared to what's facing the other ~4.3 million or so Floridians who currently receive federal subsidies.
Oh yeah...I forgot to mention that in addition to everything else, the Trump Admin's so-called "Integrity Rule" will also increase the maxmium *out of pocket* ceiling on ACA plans (ie, deductibles, co-pays, etc) by ~$900 more than it otherwise would be. So, y'know...there's that.
OK, that's it for the Big States. Next, let's look at the final 3 states. All of them have small populations and small ACA enrollment numbers. So why am I posting them last? You'll see in a moment.
First up: WYOMING, which only has ~39,000 or so ACA enrollees (which is still 6.6% of their total population). Wyoming has 3 ACA carriers this year, but will only have 2 next year because one of them is dropping out...largely due to the subsidies expiring. acasignups.net/ira-subsidy-...
Wyoming's 2 remaining ACA carriers are raising premiums by 22% on average, which (spoiler) is also roughly the national average for 2026. Only a couple thousand Wyomingites are currently unsubsidized; that's what they have to look forward to.
A lot of these enrollees are children of working parents. A lot of florida employers will give you healthcare coverage but have purchased plans that are absolutely cost prohibitive to add a spouse or child. So a large chunk of these are too rich for medicaid but to poor to eat the ehi cost.
True of many PA employers also, and probably everywhere. Non-union shops being what they are.
Right to work is great stuff.
My goodness…people are going to riot. They’re going to be stunned. It’s like a tsunami is 20 miles off-shore and most of the residents voted to turn off the warning sirens.
Hialeah is going to explode when the ACA goes away.