Alaska only has around 27,000 ACA enrollees, and amazingly, their 2 individual market carriers are actually DROPPING gross premiums ever so slightly next year (by a whopping 0.2% on average). Alaska has the dubious honor of being the ONLY state REDUCING gross ACA premiums in 2026.
"Ah-ha!" you may be thinking: Alaska's ACA premiums are essentially FLAT year over year, so enrollees can breath a sigh of relief, right?" For the ~3,000 or so who are paying full price this year...yes. They should be fine. For the other ~25,000 or so, however...
...not so much. That's not a typo: A 64-yr old couple earning $110,000/year would likely see their net premiums for the benchmark Silver plan skyrocket from $828/month to $4,900/month.
only leaving about $2000/month for.... everything else❗
🚨🚨🚨 AND FINALLY, WE COME TO WEST VIRGINIA. WV has arond 67,000 #ACA individual market enrollees. Perhaps 2,000 are unsubsidized. acasignups.net/ira-subsidy-...
WV's 3 carriers are seeking avg. rate hikes of around 11.5%, which, again, would be considered high any other year but are at the low end of the spectrum this year. So...not great but not terrible, right?
Prediction: Trump bankrupts all insurance companies because no one can pay these premiums, and then Dems win the mid-terms and swoop in with universal health care. Everyone wins! (This is based solely on me wanting this scenario to happen.)
Technically that last example is a hair lower than the highest Alaska household, but remember, the Alaska example was based on the couple earning $110,000/yr, since AK has a higher FPL threshold. The West Virginia example is a 64-yr old couple in Charleston who earn $90,000/year.
$4,898 x 12 = $58,776/year. That would theoretically cost this couple 2/3 of their ENTIRE GROSS INCOME just in premiums alone. Needless to say, NO ONE is going to actually do this unless they're TRULY desperate...ie, they have extremely expensive medical problems and can't get coverage otherwise.
In other words, while many ACA enrollees will downgrade their plans to mitigate the premium hikes (Gold to Silver, Silver to Bronze, PPO to HMO, etc), millions more will simply be PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET and will have to drop coverage entirely. Not only does that mean they'll be uninsured...
Coupled with the disaster at the CDC and RFK Jrs crazy ideas, this is a dangerous disaster ahead. Scary...
...it also means that the *remaining* ACA market will consist of sicker/more expensive-to-treat enrollees on average...which, in turn, will cause premiums to go up further and so on. This is called the beginnings of a "Death Spiral."
Would be Solved by Medicare for All
Fortunately, the *pre-IRA* subsidies should remain in place (assuming the ACA survives at all), which will prevent a full "Death Spiral" from taking place...but millions will lose coverage entirely, while millions more will be shifted to worse coverage with higher deductibles, smaller networks, etc.
FAFO
