✅ Dems have overperformed by an avg. 16 pts across 35 Special Elections so far this year, including *flipping* 3 GOP seats! NEXT UP: 9/02: FL SD-15: LaVon Bracy Davis 9/02: FL HD-40: RaShon Young 9/09: VA-11: James Walkinshaw Keep it going--donate today #Blue25 secure.actblue.com/donate/speci...
C know ing how thorough you are with data, I'm a little suprised this post about overperformance, which is sort of a regular "beat" of yours, doesn't include a link to the spreadsheet showing said over performance ??
Here's @the-downballot.com's Special Election spreadsheet. Do you really want me to include it every time I post the fundraising link? docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
in answer to your question: dunno maybe every now and then ? I guess if I am the only person asking [ whining ] about this, then you can safely ignore me ? !
Once in a while someone will inquire but they're usually not asking in good faith--they're looking to shit on Dems no matter what the facts are.
sorry :) two months ago, I was at a #teslatakedown and this very well dressed young man, very clean cut, came up to us and said he was a journalist so we started talking and he kept asking questions like "Do you think the President's attempts to fix the economy are correct" or crap like that sigh
Done!
Dems are way behind on voter registration right now. We need to get folks registered and get out the vote. #GOTV
Grass roots at the local level is fantastic for the long game. But we don’t have twenty years. We need to see gains at the federal level… fast.
disaster capitalism for votes works if we dont fire our leadership NOW the brain pool that gave us garland and fought aoc harder than they fought nazis will be our ruination
No wonder the PedoFuhrer and his MAGAt co-conspirators are shitting bricks and doing everything they can to subvert democracy and elections. I predicts there will be no '26 or '28 elections. We'll be in a civil war by then. Evidence: Positioning his private Gestapo in Blue cities.
This is good news. Unfortunately, my chipping in days are over. Because, you know, groceries…
Charles wow I hadn't realize it's THAT good. There's so much cool analysis to do- Is redistricting possibly going to help in a wave? What size wave could flip the Senate? Where do we have to focus against different voter suppression styles? Thank you for your tireless work !
Well, it's important to remember that voter turnout for special elections tends to be different from that of general elections, so this doesn't automatically mean that Dems will overperform by 16 pts next year. HOWEVER, it definitely means that Dems are fired up; GOP not so much at the moment. 1/
As for what this means re. redistricting/etc, I'd follow folks like @the-downballot.com, @electproject.bsky.social, @statenavigate.org etc. who know more about the actual implications than I do.
Down Ballot I really like - Just listened to the piece today about the Iowa election. Ernst retiring to avoid a loss? Now there's a thought! The other 2 I will check out, for sure. Enjoy the holiday !
Thank you for posting these upcoming elections.