A 'regular recession' could, I think, be very damaging to Trump, because so much of his brand is 'he's good at business' and with the combination of the trade policy, tax bill, federal firings and deportations, he basically owns any outcome, no matter the immediate source.
But I think the other complicating factor here is Trump's own inability in crisis response, which we saw in 2020. Not hard to see a pretty rapid cycle of economic downturn or botched disaster response leading to protests which he cracks down on leading to substantial backlash.
Yeah maybe I am thinking about it too literally. The economy is so big and diverse, and companies are doing so well, I don’t see the economy deteriorating in the next few quarters to recession levels. But a trump crisis-> economic pain, that really punctures his image. Say, a crisis in Taiwan.